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← Most macroeconomic models cannot describe the AI transition, because…
17 connected korrents · 12 moments on record from 5 Sept 2010 to 21 Aug 2026.
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LLMs Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Most macroeconomic models cannot describe the AI transition, because they assume a single output that converts one-for-one into capital or consumption. Most macroeconomic models cannot describe the AI transition, because they assume a single output that converts one-for-one into capital or consumption. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An AI-caused recession requires the owners of capital to hit a hard ceiling on spending and then refuse to invest the rest, which is a very improbable combination. — tap to centre the map on it An AI-caused recession requires the owners of capital to hit a hard ceiling on spending and then refuse to… Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Economic growth from AI waits on change management, not on model capability: the work artifact and the workflow have to change first. — tap to centre the map on it Economic growth from AI waits on change management, not on model capability: the work artifact and the workflow have… Last stated 10 months ago
12 Nov 2025
SN
Satya Nadella — holds since 2025-11-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. — tap to centre the map on it We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the… Last stated 11 months ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If AI can build the new theory that crystallises how to think about a subject, it would be surprising if that capability did not spill into the rest of the economy. — tap to centre the map on it If AI can build the new theory that crystallises how to think about a subject, it would be surprising if that capability… Last stated 2 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The long trend of making it easier for ordinary people to index more of the economy will resume, and AI itself will help by cutting the cost of going public. — tap to centre the map on it The long trend of making it easier for ordinary people to index more of the economy will resume, and AI itself will… Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Some goods really will get a fully automated supply chain, and yet what that does to the overall capital share is genuinely ambiguous. — tap to centre the map on it Some goods really will get a fully automated supply chain, and yet what that does to the overall capital share is… Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The software job losses of the past few years were caused more by the end of zero-interest-rate money and the post-COVID crash than by AI. — tap to centre the map on it The software job losses of the past few years were caused more by the end of zero-interest-rate money and… Last stated a month ago
29 Jul 2026
HW
Hillel Wayne — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even with no redistribution at all, a little saving would rescue a great many people, because the same AI that automates the work makes returns enormous. — tap to centre the map on it Even with no redistribution at all, a little saving would rescue a great many people, because the same AI that… Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply… Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is not using language at all, because language requires an intention to communicate. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is not using language at all, because language requires an intention to communicate. Last stated 2 years ago
31 Aug 2024
TC
Ted Chiang — holds since 2024-08-31 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model's apparent mind is mostly our own bias: it predicts text, and leverages our evolved habit of attributing intentionality to anything that acts human. — tap to centre the map on it A language model's apparent mind is mostly our own bias: it predicts text, and leverages our evolved habit of… Last stated 2 years ago
22 Apr 2024
SC
Sean Carroll — holds since 2024-04-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement. — tap to centre the map on it A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical… Last stated 2 weeks ago
21 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Assessing whether government debt is sustainable is as much an art as a science. — tap to centre the map on it Assessing whether government debt is sustainable is as much an art as a science. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: During post-2008 fiscal consolidation, the costs of high public debt were overestimated and fiscal multipliers were underestimated, understating the output costs of austerity. — tap to centre the map on it During post-2008 fiscal consolidation, the costs of high public debt were overestimated and fiscal… Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many… Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Aggressive quantitative easing should raise long-term interest rates, because effective monetary stimulus raises them. — tap to centre the map on it Aggressive quantitative easing should raise long-term interest rates, because effective monetary stimulus… Last stated 16 years ago
6 Sept 2010
SS
Scott Sumner — holds since 2010-09-05 — tap for who they are
SS
Scott Sumner — no longer holds since 2010-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government. — tap to centre the map on it Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government… Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Most macroeconomic models cannot describe the AI transition, because they assume a single output that converts one-for-one into capital or consumption.
Holds PT Phil TrammellRead this korrent →
An AI-caused recession requires the owners of capital to hit a hard ceiling on spending and then refuse to invest the rest, which is a very improbable combination.
Holds AI Alex Imas
Economic growth from AI waits on change management, not on model capability: the work artifact and the workflow have to change first.
Holds SN Satya Nadella
We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it.
Holds
If AI can build the new theory that crystallises how to think about a subject, it would be surprising if that capability did not spill into the rest of the economy.
Holds GS Grant Sanderson
The long trend of making it easier for ordinary people to index more of the economy will resume, and AI itself will help by cutting the cost of going public.
Holds PT Phil Trammell
Some goods really will get a fully automated supply chain, and yet what that does to the overall capital share is genuinely ambiguous.
Holds PT Phil Trammell
The software job losses of the past few years were caused more by the end of zero-interest-rate money and the post-COVID crash than by AI.
Holds HW Hillel Wayne
Even with no redistribution at all, a little saving would rescue a great many people, because the same AI that automates the work makes returns enormous.
Holds PT Phil Trammell
A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted.
Holds GM Gary Marcus
A language model is not using language at all, because language requires an intention to communicate.
Holds TC Ted Chiang
A language model's apparent mind is mostly our own bias: it predicts text, and leverages our evolved habit of attributing intentionality to anything that acts human.
Holds SC Sean Carroll
A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement.
Holds
Assessing whether government debt is sustainable is as much an art as a science.
Holds
During post-2008 fiscal consolidation, the costs of high public debt were overestimated and fiscal multipliers were underestimated, understating the output costs of austerity.
Holds
A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate.
Holds
Aggressive quantitative easing should raise long-term interest rates, because effective monetary stimulus raises them.
No longer holds SS Scott Sumner
Canceling government bonds held by a central bank creates no fiscal space, because the reduction in government interest payments is exactly offset by an equal reduction in the profits the central bank remits to the government.
Holds