Claudia Sahm
Economist and creator of the Sahm Rule recession indicator; writes the Stay-At-Home Macro newsletter.
Claudia Sahm did not write this page.
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Their wordsMonetary policy is a tool of macroeconomic stabilization. It smooths out the bumps and wiggles in the economy around its trend: the Fed fights recessions and overheating alike, but it does not try to move the trend itself.
↗Questions for the Chairstayathomemacro.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThe press conference exists so the Chair can explain the Committee's decision and answer for it.
↗Questions for the Chairstayathomemacro.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThe Fed's decisions affect millions of Americans. They should hear the reasons straight from the Chair.
↗Questions for the Chairstayathomemacro.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 7 days earlier
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Their wordsThe Fed must stick to its mandate and ground its decisions in economics, not politics.
↗Costly medicinestayathomemacro.substack.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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AI and jobsinterest ratesAmerica
Their wordsHigher interest rates create direct costs for millions of Americans through borrowing and potentially indirect costs through a weaker labor market.
↗Costly medicinestayathomemacro.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece
- 7 days earlier
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Their wordsShocks like these raise prices for a time, not forever, so raising rates against them risks unnecessary pain, cutting demand to fight inflation that would fade on its own.
↗Something is shifting in the inflation picturestayathomemacro.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
A rise in energy prices alone is not sufficient reason for a central bank to raise interest rates.
Their wordsAn increase in energy prices, on its own, is not a good reason for the Fed to raise interest rates.
↗Something is shifting in the inflation picturestayathomemacro.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsAI may be disinflationary over five or ten years, but over the year ahead- the horizon that matters most for monetary policy-the effects are likely inflationary.
↗Something is shifting in the inflation picturestayathomemacro.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 6 days earlier
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Their wordsPlaying the long game is the right way to pursue change at the Fed.
- 12 days earlier
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Their wordsAccountability has been the core goal from the start, and the Chair is the Committee's messenger.
↗Read the Minutes, Fade the Presserstayathomemacro.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsMarkets do not do the Fed's job for it; they are expecting the Fed to do its job.
↗Read the Minutes, Fade the Presserstayathomemacro.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsDropping forward guidance is defensible; dropping accountability is not.
↗Read the Minutes, Fade the Presserstayathomemacro.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 3 days earlier
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Their wordsI don't mind the process; it's the lack of details that is endangering Warsh's credibility.
↗Go to the mountains, come down from 30,000 feetstayathomemacro.substack.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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inflationinterest ratesgovernment
Their wordsIf you get in a place where we're handing the keys of the Fed's balance sheet over to the Treasury to say "get interest rates low," because they want to do more borrowing, that's a real inflation risk.
↗Go to the mountains, come down from 30,000 feetstayathomemacro.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece