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Claudia Sahm

What Claudia Sahm thinks about interest rates

@claudia-sahm · 14 positions · On ppll ↗

Economist and creator of the Sahm Rule recession indicator; writes the Stay-At-Home Macro newsletter.

Claudia Sahm did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

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Only Claudia Sahm on interest rates. See everyone on interest rates

12 dated positions, 2026, in their own words. Our reading of what Claudia Sahm has said — not written or endorsed by them.

  1. Our readingMonetary policy is a tool for smoothing short-term economic fluctuations around the trend, not for shifting the trend itself.

    Their wordsMonetary policy is a tool of macroeconomic stabilization. It smooths out the bumps and wiggles in the economy around its trend: the Fed fights recessions and overheating alike, but it does not try to move the trend itself.

    ↗Questions for the Chairstayathomemacro.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece

  3. Our readingA central bank press conference exists for the chair to explain and answer for the committee's decision.

    journalism

    Their wordsThe press conference exists so the Chair can explain the Committee's decision and answer for it.

    ↗Questions for the Chairstayathomemacro.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece

  5. Our readingCentral bank decisions affect millions of people, who deserve to hear the reasons directly from its chair.

    America

    Their wordsThe Fed's decisions affect millions of Americans. They should hear the reasons straight from the Chair.

    ↗Questions for the Chairstayathomemacro.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece

  6. 7 days earlier

  7. Our readingMonetary policy decisions should be grounded in economics, not politics.

    politics

    Their wordsThe Fed must stick to its mandate and ground its decisions in economics, not politics.

    ↗Costly medicinestayathomemacro.substack.com 1st of 2 in this piece

  9. Our readingRaising interest rates imposes real costs on borrowers and on the labor market.

    AI and jobsAmerica

    Their wordsHigher interest rates create direct costs for millions of Americans through borrowing and potentially indirect costs through a weaker labor market.

    ↗Costly medicinestayathomemacro.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece

  10. 7 days earlier

  11. Our readingCentral banks should not raise interest rates to counter temporary supply shocks that will fade on their own.

    inflation

    Their wordsShocks like these raise prices for a time, not forever, so raising rates against them risks unnecessary pain, cutting demand to fight inflation that would fade on its own.

    ↗Something is shifting in the inflation picturestayathomemacro.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece

  13. Our readingA rise in energy prices alone is not sufficient reason for a central bank to raise interest rates.

    energy

    Their wordsAn increase in energy prices, on its own, is not a good reason for the Fed to raise interest rates.

    ↗Something is shifting in the inflation picturestayathomemacro.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece

  14. 6 days earlier

  15. Our readingPlaying the long game is the right way to pursue institutional change.

    Their wordsPlaying the long game is the right way to pursue change at the Fed.

    ↗Welcome, Mr. Chairmanstayathomemacro.substack.com

  16. 12 days earlier

  17. Our readingA central bank's chair should act as the messenger for the committee's consensus, not for personal views.

    Their wordsAccountability has been the core goal from the start, and the Chair is the Committee's messenger.

    ↗Read the Minutes, Fade the Presserstayathomemacro.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece

  19. Our readingFinancial markets anticipating a policy move do not substitute for the central bank actually making that move.

    Their wordsMarkets do not do the Fed's job for it; they are expecting the Fed to do its job.

    ↗Read the Minutes, Fade the Presserstayathomemacro.substack.com 2nd of 3 in this piece

  21. Our readingA central bank can stop giving forward guidance without abandoning accountability for explaining its decisions.

    Their wordsDropping forward guidance is defensible; dropping accountability is not.

    ↗Read the Minutes, Fade the Presserstayathomemacro.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece

  22. 3 days earlier

  23. Our readingCeding control of the Fed's balance sheet to the Treasury so it can keep interest rates low for more government borrowing would be a real inflation risk.

    inflationgovernment

    Their wordsIf you get in a place where we're handing the keys of the Fed's balance sheet over to the Treasury to say "get interest rates low," because they want to do more borrowing, that's a real inflation risk.

    ↗Go to the mountains, come down from 30,000 feetstayathomemacro.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece