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Something is shifting in the inflation picture

Claudia Sahm · 7 Sept 2026

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  1. Shocks like these raise prices for a time, not forever, so raising rates against them risks unnecessary pain, cutting demand to fight inflation that would fade on its own.
  2. An increase in energy prices, on its own, is not a good reason for the Fed to raise interest rates.
  3. AI may be disinflationary over five or ten years, but over the year ahead- the horizon that matters most for monetary policy-the effects are likely inflationary.

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