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Claudia Sahm

What Claudia Sahm thinks about inflation

@claudia-sahm · 14 positions · On ppll ↗

Economist and creator of the Sahm Rule recession indicator; writes the Stay-At-Home Macro newsletter.

Claudia Sahm did not write this page.

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Only Claudia Sahm on inflation. See everyone on inflation

3 dated positions, 2026, in their own words. Our reading of what Claudia Sahm has said — not written or endorsed by them.

3 positions so far — this page is not yet offered to search engines.

  1. Our readingCentral banks should not raise interest rates to counter temporary supply shocks that will fade on their own.

    interest rates

    Their wordsShocks like these raise prices for a time, not forever, so raising rates against them risks unnecessary pain, cutting demand to fight inflation that would fade on its own.

    ↗Something is shifting in the inflation picturestayathomemacro.substack.com 1st of 3 in this piece

  3. Our readingAI's effect on inflation is disinflationary over five to ten years but inflationary over the coming year because of chip shortages.

    Their wordsAI may be disinflationary over five or ten years, but over the year ahead- the horizon that matters most for monetary policy-the effects are likely inflationary.

    ↗Something is shifting in the inflation picturestayathomemacro.substack.com 3rd of 3 in this piece

  4. 3 weeks earlier

  5. Our readingCeding control of the Fed's balance sheet to the Treasury so it can keep interest rates low for more government borrowing would be a real inflation risk.

    interest ratesgovernment

    Their wordsIf you get in a place where we're handing the keys of the Fed's balance sheet over to the Treasury to say "get interest rates low," because they want to do more borrowing, that's a real inflation risk.

    ↗Go to the mountains, come down from 30,000 feetstayathomemacro.substack.com 2nd of 2 in this piece