Lyn Alden
Investment researcher and engineer who runs Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, writing on macroeconomics, currency systems and equity analysis.
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Their wordsPrivately held businesses in the United States are collectively worth trillions of dollars, and demographically speaking, they have an aging set of owners who are seeking liquidity or diversification as they explore how to pass on what they've built.
↗An Alternative to Private Equity: Introducing ORANGE JUICElynalden.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsBusinesses that emerge out of PE funds have higher failure rates than average, thanks to being saddled with a lot of leverage.
↗An Alternative to Private Equity: Introducing ORANGE JUICElynalden.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsPE funds optimize for a 4-7 flip and typically resort to aggressive cost-cutting and near-term optimization at the cost of the "soul" of the business or what made it successful in the first place.
↗An Alternative to Private Equity: Introducing ORANGE JUICElynalden.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 4 months earlier
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Their wordsThat's due to the fractional reserve structure of banks. They're unstable and reliant on each other by design, more closely than companies in most other industries.
↗Fractional Reserve Banking 101lynalden.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsAnother way of putting it is that a collection of dozens of solvent well-run banks can still be broken as a group if they become greatly overleveraged compared to how many depositors want their money back at once.
↗Fractional Reserve Banking 101lynalden.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsThere were booms and busts, and cumulative price inflation was zero, and the United States went from a new-world emerging backwater in the late 1700s to being the world's largest economy by the late 1800s.
↗Fractional Reserve Banking 101lynalden.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 3 months earlier
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Their wordsUtility protocols face heavy competition, and thus their value trends toward their marginal cost of operation.
↗Why Most Cryptocurrencies Won’t Accrue Valuelynalden.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsWhile there is some utility value in DeFi, it basically lets users transform custodial risk into technical risk (e.g. bridge protocol hacks), which is not a free lunch.
↗Why Most Cryptocurrencies Won’t Accrue Valuelynalden.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsIn my view, Bitcoin at a ~$2 trillion market capitalization remains rather early.
↗Why Most Cryptocurrencies Won’t Accrue Valuelynalden.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 5 months earlier
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Their wordsSo, daily leverage is pretty bad unless you're a short-term trader. Volatility hurts that type of leverage.
↗The Rise of Bitcoin Stocks and Bondslynalden.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsIf a new monetary network with its own unit (i.e. not pegged to an existing currency as a credit rail on top of it, but rather a fully parallel system to central banks) is going to bootstrap from zero to massive, it requires upward volatility.
↗The Rise of Bitcoin Stocks and Bondslynalden.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsBitcoin is not going to catch on as a charity. In order for spending it to catch on persistently at scale (i.e. not just billions of dollar-equivalents in annual global medium-of-exchange volume, but trillions), it has to solve problems for spenders and/or recipients that other solutions are not doing.
↗The Rise of Bitcoin Stocks and Bondslynalden.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 6 months earlier
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Their wordsStructural fiscal deficits have surpassed private sector lending and monetary policy as the primary drivers of economic activity and inflation, marking a fundamental shift in the economy's liquidity dynamics.
↗Full Steam Ahead: All Aboard Fiscal Dominancelynalden.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Our reading
The United States is not at risk of a financial crisis caused by the size of its government debt.
Their wordsStabilizing factors such as the global demand for U.S. dollars and debt denominated in its own currency suggest an era of fiscal dominance in the U.S. that's less dramatic than alarmists predict but more persistent and intractable than optimists hope.
↗Full Steam Ahead: All Aboard Fiscal Dominancelynalden.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsSince inflation is not primarily driven by private-sector lending in the current environment, making borrowing more expensive will not significantly cool the economy.
↗Full Steam Ahead: All Aboard Fiscal Dominancelynalden.com 3rd of 3 in this piece
- 3 months earlier
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Our reading
Bitcoin tracks the direction of global liquidity more consistently than any other major asset class.
Their wordsBitcoin moves in the direction of global liquidity 83% of the time in any given 12-month period, which is higher than any other major asset class, making it a strong barometer of liquidity conditions.
↗Bitcoin: A Global Liquidity Barometerlynalden.com 1st of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsSince then, these unconventional monetary policies have increasingly become the dominant force moving asset prices.
↗Bitcoin: A Global Liquidity Barometerlynalden.com 2nd of 3 in this piece
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Their wordsas the Bitcoin ecosystem matures, infrastructure improves, and more regulatory clarity emerges, I expect the frequency of these 'Black Swan' events to diminish over time.
↗Bitcoin: A Global Liquidity Barometerlynalden.com 3rd of 3 in this piece