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← Nobody is smart enough to predict the future consistently
13 connected korrents · 14 moments from 1 Jun 2022 to 27 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under investing
investing
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stock market
Everything filed under venture capital
venture capital
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Nobody is smart enough to predict the future consistently Nobody is smart enough to predict the future consistently Last stated 2 years ago
20 Feb 2025
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2025-02-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Nobody can reliably predict when market drops will occur, how deep they'll go, or when they'll end. — tap to centre the map on it Nobody can reliably predict when market drops will occur, how deep they'll go, or when they'll end. Last stated a year ago
12 May 2025
JC
JL Collins — holds since 2025-05-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Nobody is prepared for the consequences of machine intelligence continuing to rise this fast. — tap to centre the map on it Nobody is prepared for the consequences of machine intelligence continuing to rise this fast. Last stated 4 weeks ago
6 Sept 2026
JP
Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. — tap to centre the map on it The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously. Last stated 4 years ago
30 Jun 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The future will be defined by people who learn, not people who know. — tap to centre the map on it The future will be defined by people who learn, not people who know. Last stated 5 days ago
27 Sept 2026
MG
Molly Graham — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. — tap to centre the map on it A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. Last stated 10 months ago
9 Dec 2025
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company that grows enough eventually has no need for investors. — tap to centre the map on it A company that grows enough eventually has no need for investors. Last stated a month ago
1 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. — tap to centre the map on it A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. Last stated a year ago
21 May 2025
EZ
Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. — tap to centre the map on it A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. Last stated 7 months ago
3 Mar 2026
SB
Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. — tap to centre the map on it A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. Last stated a week ago
25 Sept 2026
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2026-09-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. — tap to centre the map on it A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. Last stated 4 months ago
14 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. — tap to centre the map on it A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. Last stated 4 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out. — tap to centre the map on it About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out. Last stated 2 months ago
18 Jul 2026
PL
Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-07-18 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Nobody is smart enough to predict the future consistently
Holds Read this korrent →
Nobody can reliably predict when market drops will occur, how deep they'll go, or when they'll end.
Holds
Nobody is prepared for the consequences of machine intelligence continuing to rise this fast.
Holds
The track record of thoughtful people predicting the long-run future is mediocre rather than hopeless, which is enough to take such predictions seriously.
Holds
The future will be defined by people who learn, not people who know.
Holds
A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now.
Holds
A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate.
Holds
A company that grows enough eventually has no need for investors.
Holds
A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price.
Holds
A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack.
Holds
A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market.
Holds
A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit.
Holds
A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for.
Holds
About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out.
Holds