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Shane Parrish

What Shane Parrish thinks about mental models

@shane-parrish · 48 positions · 0 changes of mind

Founder of Farnam Street (fs.blog) and host of The Knowledge Project podcast. Writes and curates on decision-making, mental models and rational thinking.

Everything they publish, on ppll ↗

Shane Parrish did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

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Only Shane Parrish on mental models. See everyone on mental models

20 dated positions, 2013 to 2024, in their own words. Our reading of what Shane Parrish has said — not written or endorsed by them.

  1. Our readingHanlon's razor is a safeguard against labelling behaviour as malicious when incompetence is the more common cause.

    Their wordsHanlon’s razor is a mental safeguard against the temptation to label behavior as malicious when incompetence is the most common response.

    ↗Hanlon’s Razor: Not Everyone is Out to Get Youfs.blog 1st of 6 in this piece

  2. 3 years earlier

  3. Our readingA thought experiment serves to encourage speculation and logical thinking and to change paradigms.

    Their wordsThe purpose of a thought experiment is to encourage speculation, logical thinking and to change paradigms.

    ↗Thought Experiment: How Einstein Solved Difficult Problemsfs.blog 1st of 5 in this piece

  4. 2 years earlier

  5. Our readingOccam's razor holds that the simplest explanation is preferable to a more complex one, because simple theories are easier to verify and simple solutions easier to execute.

    Their wordsIn simpler language, Occam’s razor states that the simplest explanation is preferable to one that is more complex. Simple theories are easier to verify. Simple solutions are easier to execute.

    ↗How to Use Occam’s Razor Without Getting Cutfs.blog 1st of 5 in this piece

  7. Our readingOccam's razor works best for making initial conclusions before the full scope of information can be obtained.

    Their wordsIt works best as a mental model for making initial conclusions before the full scope of information can be obtained.

    ↗How to Use Occam’s Razor Without Getting Cutfs.blog 2nd of 5 in this piece

  9. Our readingLike any mental model Occam's razor is not foolproof, and should be used with care.

    Their wordsIt is important to note that, like any mental model, Occam’s razor is not foolproof. Use it with care, lest you cut yourself.

    ↗How to Use Occam’s Razor Without Getting Cutfs.blog 3rd of 5 in this piece

  11. Our readingOccam's razor is no substitute for critical thinking; it is a tool for making that thinking more efficient.

    Their wordsOccam’s razor is not intended to be a substitute for critical thinking. It is merely a tool to help make that thinking more efficient.

    ↗How to Use Occam’s Razor Without Getting Cutfs.blog 5th of 5 in this piece

  12. 17 months earlier

  13. Our readingProbabilistic thinking, estimating the likelihood of outcomes, is one of the best tools for improving the accuracy of decisions.

    Their wordsProbabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. It is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions.

    ↗The Value of Probabilistic Thinking: Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikesfs.blog 1st of 5 in this piece

  15. Our readingThe future is not determined, and it can be navigated better by understanding the likelihood of events that could affect us.

    Their wordsThe future is far from determined and we can better navigate it by understanding the likelihood of events that could impact us.

    ↗The Value of Probabilistic Thinking: Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikesfs.blog 2nd of 5 in this piece

  17. Our readingBayesian thinking lets a person use all relevant prior information when making decisions.

    Their wordsBayesian thinking allows us to use all relevant prior information in making decisions.

    ↗The Value of Probabilistic Thinking: Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikesfs.blog 3rd of 5 in this piece

  19. Our readingThinking in probabilities means roughly identifying what matters, getting a sense of the odds, checking assumptions, and then deciding.

    Their wordsSuccessfully thinking in shades of probability means roughly identifying what matters, coming up with a sense of the odds, doing a check on our assumptions, and then making a decision.

    ↗The Value of Probabilistic Thinking: Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikesfs.blog 5th of 5 in this piece

  20. 11 months earlier

  21. Our readingAlthough activation energy is a scientific concept, it can serve as a practical mental model.

    energy

    Their wordsAlthough activation energy is a scientific concept, we can use it as a practical mental model.

    ↗Activation Energy: Why Getting Started Is the Hardest Partfs.blog 2nd of 3 in this piece

  22. 15 months earlier

  23. Our readingSecond-order thinking is more deliberate than first-order thinking: it considers interactions and time, and asks "And then what?"

    Their wordsSecond-order thinking is more deliberate. It is thinking in terms of interactions and time, understanding that despite our intentions our interventions often cause harm. Second order thinkers ask themselves the question “And then what?”

    ↗Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperformfs.blog 1st of 3 in this piece

  25. Our readingSecond-order thinking takes a lot of work, because it means thinking in terms of systems, interactions and time.

    Their wordsSecond-order thinking takes a lot of work. It’s not easy to think in terms of systems, interactions, and time.

    ↗Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperformfs.blog 3rd of 3 in this piece

  26. 2 years earlier

  27. Our readingThe size of a person's circle of competence matters less than knowing when they are approaching its perimeter.

    Their wordsThe size of that circle is not important. What is important is knowing when you are approaching the perimeter.

    ↗Mastering Success: Navigating Within Your Circle of Competencefs.blog 1st of 5 in this piece

  29. Our readingInside the circle of competence a person has an advantage; on crossing its perimeter the advantage vanishes and transfers to other people.

    Their wordsWithin your circle of competence, you operate with an advantage. As you approach the perimeter (the limitations of your knowledge), your advantage starts to reduce. As you cross the perimeter, not only does your advantage vanish, but it transfers to other people.

    ↗Mastering Success: Navigating Within Your Circle of Competencefs.blog 2nd of 5 in this piece

  31. Our readingOutside the circle of competence, confidence does not diminish as fast as competence, and the biggest risk is what one does not see.

    Their wordsAs we cross the perimeter from what we know to what we don’t, confidence does not diminish as fast as competence. The biggest risk when operating outside of your circle of competence is what you don’t see.

    ↗Mastering Success: Navigating Within Your Circle of Competencefs.blog 3rd of 5 in this piece

  33. Our readingTo improve the odds of success, a person should understand the perimeter of their circle of competence, operate well inside it, and be willing to say "I don't know".

    Their wordsTo improve the odds of success in life and business, understand the perimeter of your circle of competence and operate well inside. Over time, work to expand that circle, but don’t fool yourself about where the perimeter is, and never be afraid to say, “I don’t know.”

    ↗Mastering Success: Navigating Within Your Circle of Competencefs.blog 5th of 5 in this piece

  34. 5 weeks earlier

  35. Our readingA difficult problem is better thought through both forwards and backward than in one direction only.

    Their wordsIt is not enough to think about difficult problems one way. You need to think about them forwards and backward.

    ↗Inversion and The Power of Avoiding Stupidityfs.blog 1st of 4 in this piece

  37. Our readingWorking a problem by inversion often forces the thinker to uncover hidden beliefs about it.

    Their wordsInversion often forces you to uncover hidden beliefs about the problem you are trying to solve.

    ↗Inversion and The Power of Avoiding Stupidityfs.blog 2nd of 4 in this piece

  39. Our readingThinking forward increases the odds of causing harm, whereas thinking backward (inversion) is less likely to cause harm.

    Their wordsDespite our best intentions, thinking forward increases the odds that you’ll cause harm (iatrogenics). Thinking backward, call it subtractive avoidance or inversion, is less likely to cause harm.

    ↗Inversion and The Power of Avoiding Stupidityfs.blog 3rd of 4 in this piece