What Shane Parrish thinks about optimism

@shane-parrish · 48 positions · 0 changes of mind

Founder of Farnam Street (fs.blog) and host of The Knowledge Project podcast. Writes and curates on decision-making, mental models and rational thinking.

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Only Shane Parrish on optimism. See everyone on optimism

1 dated position, 2018, in their own words. Our reading of what Shane Parrish has said — not written or endorsed by them.

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1. 14 May 2018

   Our readingFar more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side.

   Their wordsFar more probability estimates are wrong on the “over-optimistic” side than the “under-optimistic” side.

   ↗The Value of Probabilistic Thinking: Spies, Crime, and Lightning Strikesfs.blog 4th of 5 in this piece