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What Casey Handmer thinks about batteries

@casey-handmer · 76 positions · 2 changes of mind

Physicist, formerly at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and founder of Terraform Industries, which is building plant to make synthetic natural gas from sunlight and air. Writes about energy, space and manufacturing at caseyhandmer.wordpress.com.

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Casey Handmer did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

7 dated positions, 2023 to 2025, in their own words. Our reading of what Casey Handmer has said — not written or endorsed by them.

  1. Our readingBatteries will replace transmission as the cheapest way to keep the lights on, and the grid will shrink rather than grow.

    Their wordsDo we need to drastically expand the grid in order to metabolize renewables? No.

    ↗Energy Predictions 2025caseyhandmer.wordpress.com 1st of 6 in this piece

    energy

    Interesting

  3. Our readingSeasonal energy storage is a heat problem rather than a battery problem: electricity is hard to store for months and heat is easy.

    Their wordsStoring electricity for months is economically difficult, but storing heat is easy.

    ↗Energy Predictions 2025caseyhandmer.wordpress.com 3rd of 6 in this piece

    energy

    Interesting
  4. 4 months earlier

  5. Our readingNobody will finance new gas turbine factories, because paying one off takes twenty years of a market that solar and batteries will already have taken.

    Their wordsYou you also don't know like in order to make that money back, you have to then operate that plant at that capacity for 20 years, right? And if I was looking at the same charts as they're looking at right now, I'd say what are the odds that in 25 years time we can produce gas turbines at a price that is relevant in a world where solar is already at its current price and batteries at a price where they're already like you cannot win.

    ↗China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmeryoutube.com 11th of 24 in this recording

    solar

    Interesting
  6. 9 months earlier

  7. Our readingBelow about a thousand dollars a kilowatt of capital cost, the right way to run a plant is intermittently on raw solar with no batteries at all.

    Their wordsFor loads below $1000/kW, intermittent operation with some modest solar array oversizing is the winning strategy. Above $1000/kW, we charge and discharge batteries daily to run them.

    ↗Solar and batteries for generic use casescaseyhandmer.wordpress.com 2nd of 3 in this piece

    solar

    Interesting

  9. Our readingPast a point it is cheaper to overbuild solar than to add batteries, because a battery kept for the rare bad day is barely used.

    Their wordsA battery that’s discharging every day gets great utilization, but one that’s only there in case the sun doesn’t come up for two days in a row, barely gets used.

    ↗Solar and batteries for generic use casescaseyhandmer.wordpress.com 3rd of 3 in this piece

    solar

    Interesting
  10. 13 months earlier

  11. Our readingThe end state of the grid is not a fifth solar backed by spinning generation, but twice the demand in solar with days of storage behind it.

    Their wordsThe logical end state of this displacement is not some hybrid grid with around 20% solar backed up by spinning generation, but a much more dynamic, versatile grid with around 200% solar generation and hours to days or weeks of battery storage, fully decoupling time of generation and consumption.

    ↗Radical Energy Abundancecaseyhandmer.wordpress.com 3rd of 7 in this piece

    solarenergy

    Interesting

  13. Our readingBatteries will replace transmission as the cheapest way to keep the lights on, and the grid will shrink rather than grow.

    Their wordswe will see batteries aggressively displace transmission as the most cost-effective way to ensure continuity of electricity supply, leading to an eventual pruning of the grid and drastic reduction in the average distance that power travels between production and consumption, even as the average time that power is stored increases.

    ↗Radical Energy Abundancecaseyhandmer.wordpress.com 4th of 7 in this piece

    energy

    Interesting