korrents

What Casey Handmer thinks about space

@casey-handmer · 76 positions · 2 changes of mind

Physicist, formerly at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and founder of Terraform Industries, which is building plant to make synthetic natural gas from sunlight and air. Writes about energy, space and manufacturing at caseyhandmer.wordpress.com.

Everything they publish, on ppll ↗

Casey Handmer did not write this page.

We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.

5 dated positions, 2021 to 2026, in their own words. Our reading of what Casey Handmer has said — not written or endorsed by them.

  1. Our readingStarship will bring the price of low Earth orbit down to roughly a hundred dollars a kilogram.

    Their wordsStarship promises a near future with launch costs to LEO of perhaps $100/kg.

    ↗How to build a lunar mass drivercaseyhandmer.wordpress.com 1st of 2 in this piece

  3. Our readingA lunar mass driver cannot pay for itself by cutting launch costs, because launch is already a small part of what an orbital computer costs.

    Their wordsAt even $500/kg, launch cost is only 5% of the total satellite deployment cost, so a lunar mass driver is unlikely to drastically improve the economics of space-based AI, by reducing launch costs.

    ↗How to build a lunar mass drivercaseyhandmer.wordpress.com 2nd of 2 in this piece

  4. 3 months earlier

  5. Our readingEarth-launched hardware can support about a hundred gigawatts in orbit; past that, the satellites have to be built off Earth.

    Their wordsStarship can lift orbital power generation to about 100 GW with perhaps 10,000 launches per year, or about one per hour.

    ↗Space AI: I guess we’re doing Moon factories nowcaseyhandmer.wordpress.com 3rd of 3 in this piece

  6. 3 months earlier

  7. Our readingOrion is too heavy for any rocket that exists to carry it to low lunar orbit and bring it home.

    Their wordsEven for $5.2b per launch, Orion is so overweight that there does not exist a booster nor an upper stage that can launch it to Low Lunar Orbit and return it to Earth.

    ↗NASA’s Orion Space Capsule Is Flaming Garbagecaseyhandmer.wordpress.com 2nd of 4 in this piece

  8. 4 years earlier

  9. Our readingLaunch costs are on a declining trajectory comparable to Moore's Law-driven chip cost declines in the 1990s.

    Their wordsAt the same time, launch costs drop as low as $50/kg, roughly 100x lower than the present.

    ↗Starship is Still Not Understoodcaseyhandmer.wordpress.com 3rd of 4 in this piece