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← We overestimate how much we understand and underestimate the role of chance

17 connected korrents · 14 moments from 28 Oct 2011 to 12 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under behavioural science behavioural science Everything filed under attitude change attitude change Everything filed under management management Everything filed under motivation motivation Everything filed under humility humility Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: We overestimate how much we understand and underestimate the role of chance We overestimate how much we understand andunderestimate the role of chance DK Daniel Kahneman — holds since c. 2011 — tap for who they are Same subject: People tend to think they understand the future better than they actually do — tap to centre the map on it People tend to think they understandthe future better than they actuallydo Last stated 4 years ago 3 Mar 2023 MM Michael Mauboussin — holds since 2023-03-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: People tend to overestimate their own talent and underestimate the structural advantages that amplify their success. — tap to centre the map on it People tend to overestimate theirown talent and underestimate thestructural advantages that amplifytheir success. Last stated 3 months ago 13 Aug 2026 HF Henry Farrell — holds since 2026-08-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: Probability is accepting the limits of our knowledge and dealing with our ignorance — tap to centre the map on it Probability is accepting the limitsof our knowledge and dealing withour ignorance NT Nassim Nicholas Taleb — holds since c. 2004 — tap for who they are Same subject: Humans always believe they know more about the world, the universe, and themselves than they actually do. — tap to centre the map on it Humans always believe they know moreabout the world, the universe, andthemselves than they actually do. Last stated 5 months ago 29 May 2026 JP Joe Posnanski — holds since 2026-05-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: Strong intuitions that seem clear lack a way of calibrating, which makes people wildly overconfident about what they know and reluctant to accept they may be wrong. — tap to centre the map on it Strong intuitions that seem clearlack a way of calibrating, whichmakes people wildly overconfidentabout what they know and reluctantto accept they may be wrong. Last stated 7 years ago 12 Oct 2019 DK Daniel Kahneman — holds since 2019-10-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: People may be overestimating how many problems are bound by intelligence rather than by other things. — tap to centre the map on it People may be overestimating howmany problems are bound byintelligence rather than by otherthings. Last stated 2 months ago 6 Sept 2026 AA Anish Acharya — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are Same subject: The more we learn about the world, the clearer our knowledge of our own ignorance becomes — tap to centre the map on it The more we learn about the world,the clearer our knowledge of our ownignorance becomes KP Karl Popper — holds since c. 1963–1968 — tap for who they are Same subject: People tend to unconsciously overestimate how much they personally contribute to shared work compared to others. — tap to centre the map on it People tend to unconsciouslyoverestimate how much theypersonally contribute to shared workcompared to others. Last stated 3 months ago 23 Jul 2026 GR Gretchen Rubin — holds since 2026-07-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: Being professionally offended by every little thing is no longer a dominant disposition — tap to centre the map on it Being professionally offended byevery little thing is no longer adominant disposition Last stated 2 years ago 6 Nov 2024 DH David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2024-11-06 — tap for who they are Same subject: Decades of warnings about an AI apocalypse do not justify much concern today. — tap to centre the map on it Decades of warnings about an AIapocalypse do not justify muchconcern today. Last stated 2 months ago 12 Sept 2026 PF Paul Ford — holds since 2026-09-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: Deliberately shifting a culture is far harder now that everyone can personalise their media and skip past anything they dislike. — tap to centre the map on it Deliberately shifting a culture isfar harder now that everyone canpersonalise their media and skippast anything they dislike. Last stated a year ago 1 Jul 2025 AE Alice Evans — holds since 2025-07-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A drop in agency is the earliest sign of burnout, arriving before you consciously notice you are burning out. — tap to centre the map on it A drop in agency is the earliestsign of burnout, arriving before youconsciously notice you are burningout. Last stated 3 years ago 10 Jan 2024 CH Cate Hall — holds since 2024-01-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: A founder who picks an idea because the market wants it will give up, because nobody can persist at something that was never important to them. — tap to centre the map on it A founder who picks an idea becausethe market wants it will give up,because nobody can persist atsomething that was never importantto them. Last stated 2 years ago 19 Jun 2024 AS Aravind Srinivas — holds since 2024-06-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: A general inclination of all humankind is a perpetual, restless desire of power after power that ends only in death — tap to centre the map on it A general inclination of allhumankind is a perpetual, restlessdesire of power after power thatends only in death TH Thomas Hobbes — holds since c. 1651 — tap for who they are Same subject: "Hire great people and get out of their way" is dangerous advice for anyone in a leadership role. — tap to centre the map on it "Hire great people and get out oftheir way" is dangerous advice foranyone in a leadership role. Last stated 2 years ago 17 Dec 2024 CM Charity Majors — holds since 2024-12-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: A career goes better attached to the part of a business that brings the money in than to a cost centre, whatever the work itself is. — tap to centre the map on it A career goes better attached to thepart of a business that brings themoney in than to a cost centre,whatever the work itself is. Last stated 15 years ago 28 Oct 2011 PM Patrick McKenzie — holds since 2011-10-28 — tap for who they are Same subject: A career ladder must not be a checklist that guarantees promotion, because a promotion depends on the organisation’s needs as much as on the employee’s skills. — tap to centre the map on it A career ladder must not be achecklist that guarantees promotion,because a promotion depends on theorganisation’s needs as much as onthe employee’s skills. Last stated a year ago 28 May 2025 CF Camille Fournier — holds since 2025-05-28 — tap for who they are
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At the centre We overestimate how much we understand and underestimate the role of chance Last stated c. 2011 Holds Daniel Kahneman Read this korrent →