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← Probability is accepting the limits of our knowledge and dealing with our ignorance

17 connected korrents · 13 moments from 30 Aug 2005 to 29 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under AI alignment AI alignment Everything filed under metascience metascience Everything filed under AGI AGI Everything filed under hiring hiring Everything filed under ambition ambition Everything filed under humility humility Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Probability is accepting the limits of our knowledge and dealing with our ignorance Probability is accepting the limits of ourknowledge and dealing with our ignorance NT Nassim Nicholas Taleb — holds since c. 2004 — tap for who they are Same subject: We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty — tap to centre the map on it We must become more comfortable withprobability and uncertainty NS Nate Silver — holds since c. 2012 — tap for who they are Same subject: Overturned findings do not make knowledge entirely uncertain; we are approaching the truth asymptotically — tap to centre the map on it Overturned findings do not makeknowledge entirely uncertain; we areapproaching the truth asymptotically Last stated a month ago 29 Sept 2026 SA Samuel Arbesman — holds since 2026-09-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: We overestimate how much we understand and underestimate the role of chance — tap to centre the map on it We overestimate how much weunderstand and underestimate therole of chance DK Daniel Kahneman — holds since c. 2011 — tap for who they are Same subject: The probability of some AI disaster is over 90%. — tap to centre the map on it The probability of some AI disasteris over 90%. Last stated 2 months ago 23 Aug 2026 TA Timothy Garton Ash — holds since 2026-08-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: Risk comes not only from one's own ignorance but also from dealing with other people who do not know what they are doing. — tap to centre the map on it Risk comes not only from one's ownignorance but also from dealing withother people who do not know whatthey are doing. Last stated 7 years ago 8 Jun 2019 TG Tren Griffin — holds since 2019-06-08 — tap for who they are Same subject: Thinking harder about a decision has diminishing returns because reality is inherently unknowable. — tap to centre the map on it Thinking harder about a decision hasdiminishing returns because realityis inherently unknowable. Last stated 5 years ago 22 Feb 2022 NN Neel Nanda — holds since 2022-02-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: Philosophy cannot say with certainty what is true, but it suggests possibilities that free thought from the tyranny of custom — tap to centre the map on it Philosophy cannot say with certaintywhat is true, but it suggestspossibilities that free thought fromthe tyranny of custom BR Bertrand Russell — holds since c. 1912 — tap for who they are Same subject: Those who know little, not those who know much, are the ones who assert science will never solve a problem — tap to centre the map on it Those who know little, not those whoknow much, are the ones who assertscience will never solve a problem CD Charles Darwin — holds since c. 1871–1874 — tap for who they are Same subject: A company that uses an algorithm to nudge customers into behavior that isn't good for them is doing something bad. — tap to centre the map on it A company that uses an algorithm tonudge customers into behavior thatisn't good for them is doingsomething bad. Last stated a year ago 7 Oct 2025 MM Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2025-10-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A control evaluation that reports under one per cent risk should be read as several per cent, because the evaluation can itself fail. — tap to centre the map on it A control evaluation that reportsunder one per cent risk should beread as several per cent, becausethe evaluation can itself fail. Last stated 2 years ago 7 May 2024 BS Buck Shlegeris — holds since 2024-05-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. — tap to centre the map on it A feedback loop that reinforces abehavior pulls it toward whateverimproves the loop's own score. Last stated 2 months ago 26 Aug 2026 HK Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: “Trust science” is a confused instruction: what deserves trust is the process, not any particular thing it has concluded so far. — tap to centre the map on it “Trust science” is a confusedinstruction: what deserves trust isthe process, not any particularthing it has concluded so far. Last stated 3 years ago 16 Aug 2023 JC Jason Crawford — holds since 2023-08-16 — tap for who they are Same subject: A hotter field with more teams racing on the same question produces less reliable findings, not more. — tap to centre the map on it A hotter field with more teamsracing on the same question producesless reliable findings, not more. Last stated 21 years ago 30 Aug 2005 JI John Ioannidis — holds since 2005-08-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: A hyped effect shrinking to a small but real one as the studies improve is a sign that a field is working, not failing. — tap to centre the map on it A hyped effect shrinking to a smallbut real one as the studies improveis a sign that a field is working,not failing. Last stated 4 years ago 11 Oct 2022 SR Stuart Ritchie — holds since 2022-10-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supplychain should just buy the index —which works only in the world whereAI ends up commoditised rather thanconcentrated. Last stated 5 months ago 4 Jun 2026 AI Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. — tap to centre the map on it A human being is not an AGI: we lacka huge amount of knowledge and relyon continual learning instead, socontinual learning is whatsuperintelligence should mean. Last stated 11 months ago 25 Nov 2025 IS Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitutefor a well-specified conventionalalgorithm, so it cannot simply bedropped into a complex problem andtrusted. Last stated a year ago 7 Jun 2025 GM Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
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At the centre Probability is accepting the limits of our knowledge and dealing with our ignorance Last stated c. 2004 Holds Nassim Nicholas Taleb Read this korrent →