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← A hyped effect shrinking to a small but real one as the studies…
17 connected korrents · 14 moments from 30 Aug 2005 to 26 Sept 2026.
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ambition Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: A hyped effect shrinking to a small but real one as the studies improve is a sign that a field is working, not failing. A hyped effect shrinking to a small but real one as the studies improve is a sign that a field is working, not failing. Last stated 4 years ago
11 Oct 2022
SR
Stuart Ritchie — holds since 2022-10-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Published effect sizes shrink as more studies are done, and that decline is what the replication crisis is made of. — tap to centre the map on it Published effect sizes shrink as more studies are done, and that decline is what the replication crisis is made of. Last stated 4 years ago
11 Oct 2022
SR
Stuart Ritchie — holds since 2022-10-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The smaller the effects a field studies, the less likely its published findings are to be true. — tap to centre the map on it The smaller the effects a field studies, the less likely its published findings are to be true. Last stated 21 years ago
30 Aug 2005
JI
John Ioannidis — holds since 2005-08-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The smaller the studies a field runs, the less likely its published findings are to be true. — tap to centre the map on it The smaller the studies a field runs, the less likely its published findings are to be true. Last stated 21 years ago
30 Aug 2005
JI
John Ioannidis — holds since 2005-08-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A rising share of statistically insignificant experiments is the signal that a team has exploited an area too far and should go back to exploring. — tap to centre the map on it A rising share of statistically insignificant experiments is the signal that a team has exploited an area too far and should go back to exploring. Last stated a year ago
5 Oct 2025
AC
Albert Cheng — holds since 2025-10-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A hotter field with more teams racing on the same question produces less reliable findings, not more. — tap to centre the map on it A hotter field with more teams racing on the same question produces less reliable findings, not more. Last stated 21 years ago
30 Aug 2005
JI
John Ioannidis — holds since 2005-08-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Hype is weather: you can see it coming and you cannot control it, which is why a project can be declared dead and hit its highest ever downloads at the same time. — tap to centre the map on it Hype is weather: you can see it coming and you cannot control it, which is why a project can be declared dead and hit its highest ever downloads at the same time. Last stated 2 months ago
10 Aug 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-08-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: By the time a marketing tactic or channel is well-known enough to have a case study written about it, its edge has been competed away and no longer works. — tap to centre the map on it By the time a marketing tactic or channel is well-known enough to have a case study written about it, its edge has been competed away and no longer works. Last stated 3 years ago
6 Feb 2024
AC
Andrew Chen — holds since 2024-02-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Effort that produces no visible improvement is being stored rather than wasted, because results arrive at a threshold instead of steadily. — tap to centre the map on it Effort that produces no visible improvement is being stored rather than wasted, because results arrive at a threshold instead of steadily. Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JC
James Clear — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Automatic filters cannot replace community acceptance, and human referees cannot be removed from mathematical publication. — tap to centre the map on it Automatic filters cannot replace community acceptance, and human referees cannot be removed from mathematical publication. Last stated 2 months ago
17 Aug 2026
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2026-08-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Combining multiple AI models' outputs into one final answer tends to discard most of the good ideas that only one model produced. — tap to centre the map on it Combining multiple AI models' outputs into one final answer tends to discard most of the good ideas that only one model produced. Last stated 4 months ago
15 Jun 2026
RK
Rohit Krishnan — holds since 2026-06-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Fear of strong AI models killing everyone was not based on peer-reviewed research showing high doom odds, nor indicated by market prices. — tap to centre the map on it Fear of strong AI models killing everyone was not based on peer-reviewed research showing high doom odds, nor indicated by market prices. Last stated 4 weeks ago
26 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A programming language functions as a lens that shapes how a problem is perceived when solving it. — tap to centre the map on it A programming language functions as a lens that shapes how a problem is perceived when solving it. Last stated 8 years ago
9 Apr 2019
TB
Thorsten Ball — holds since 2019-04-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A programming language is a ten-year play: version one has issues, version two fixes them, version three is finally good — and only then does adoption start. — tap to centre the map on it A programming language is a ten-year play: version one has issues, version two fixes them, version three is finally good — and only then does adoption start. Last stated 5 months ago
13 May 2026
AH
Anders Hejlsberg — holds since 2026-05-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A proprietary language licensed from Microsoft had zero chance in the JavaScript ecosystem: TypeScript had to be open source or nobody would come. — tap to centre the map on it A proprietary language licensed from Microsoft had zero chance in the JavaScript ecosystem: TypeScript had to be open source or nobody would come. Last stated 5 months ago
13 May 2026
AH
Anders Hejlsberg — holds since 2026-05-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A computational discovery platform does not make a biotech fast, because the thousand other steps of drug development are still the bottleneck. — tap to centre the map on it A computational discovery platform does not make a biotech fast, because the thousand other steps of drug development are still the bottleneck. Last stated 2 years ago
17 Sept 2024
AT
Alex Telford — holds since 2024-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A designer's edge now is pulling things back, making them simpler and more understandable, because everyone can kind of execute right now. — tap to centre the map on it A designer's edge now is pulling things back, making them simpler and more understandable, because everyone can kind of execute right now. Last stated 3 months ago
29 Jul 2026
CD
Charlie Deets — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A good idea often fails to spread not for lack of merit but because no convenient way exists to implement it. — tap to centre the map on it A good idea often fails to spread not for lack of merit but because no convenient way exists to implement it. Last stated 5 months ago
7 Jun 2026
SR
Scott Rao — holds since 2026-06-07 — tap for who they are
At the centre
A hyped effect shrinking to a small but real one as the studies improve is a sign that a field is working, not failing.
Holds Read this korrent →
Published effect sizes shrink as more studies are done, and that decline is what the replication crisis is made of.
Holds
The smaller the effects a field studies, the less likely its published findings are to be true.
Holds
The smaller the studies a field runs, the less likely its published findings are to be true.
Holds
A rising share of statistically insignificant experiments is the signal that a team has exploited an area too far and should go back to exploring.
Holds
A hotter field with more teams racing on the same question produces less reliable findings, not more.
Holds
Hype is weather: you can see it coming and you cannot control it, which is why a project can be declared dead and hit its highest ever downloads at the same time.
Holds
By the time a marketing tactic or channel is well-known enough to have a case study written about it, its edge has been competed away and no longer works.
Holds
Effort that produces no visible improvement is being stored rather than wasted, because results arrive at a threshold instead of steadily.
Holds
Automatic filters cannot replace community acceptance, and human referees cannot be removed from mathematical publication.
Holds
Combining multiple AI models' outputs into one final answer tends to discard most of the good ideas that only one model produced.
Holds
Fear of strong AI models killing everyone was not based on peer-reviewed research showing high doom odds, nor indicated by market prices.
Holds
A programming language functions as a lens that shapes how a problem is perceived when solving it.
Holds
A programming language is a ten-year play: version one has issues, version two fixes them, version three is finally good — and only then does adoption start.
Holds
A proprietary language licensed from Microsoft had zero chance in the JavaScript ecosystem: TypeScript had to be open source or nobody would come.
Holds
A computational discovery platform does not make a biotech fast, because the thousand other steps of drug development are still the bottleneck.
Holds
A designer's edge now is pulling things back, making them simpler and more understandable, because everyone can kind of execute right now.
Holds
A good idea often fails to spread not for lack of merit but because no convenient way exists to implement it.
Holds