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← There will be a complete four-year doubling of world output before there is ever a one-year doubling.

14 connected korrents · 15 moments from 3 Oct 2012 to 26 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under AGI AGI Everything filed under data centers data centers Everything filed under energy energy Everything filed under space space Everything filed under America America In tensionSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: There will be a complete four-year doubling of world output before there is ever a one-year doubling. There will be a complete four-yeardoubling of world output before there isever a one-year doubling. Last stated 9 years ago 24 Feb 2018 PC Paul Christiano — holds since 2018-02-24 — tap for who they are In tension: World GDP growth is certain to accelerate, and the share of GDP spent on computation will be a hundred times what it was, because a computer is now a factory rather than a warehouse. — tap to centre the map on it World GDP growth is certain toaccelerate, and the share of GDPspent on computation will be ahundred times what it was, because acomputer is now a factory ratherthan a warehouse. Last stated 7 months ago 23 Mar 2026 JH Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-03-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: Cheap energy will at least double global growth to 6% a year, tripling the world economy by 2042. — tap to centre the map on it Cheap energy will at least doubleglobal growth to 6% a year, triplingthe world economy by 2042. Last stated 3 years ago 11 Oct 2023 CH Casey Handmer — holds since 2023-10-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: Production on the Moon and Mars will accelerate by far more than double every year until natural limits are encountered. — tap to centre the map on it Production on the Moon and Mars willaccelerate by far more than doubleevery year until natural limits areencountered. Last stated a month ago 26 Sept 2026 EM Elon Musk — holds since 2026-09-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: It is extremely difficult to know what the world will look like six months or a year from now. — tap to centre the map on it It is extremely difficult to knowwhat the world will look like sixmonths or a year from now. Last stated 12 months ago 10 Nov 2025 CR Carl Rivera — holds since 2025-11-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI may roughly double US GDP growth next year, from about 2% to about 4%, possibly even more. — tap to centre the map on it AI may roughly double US GDP growthnext year, from about 2% to about4%, possibly even more. Last stated 2 months ago 18 Sept 2026 EM Elon Musk — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supplychain should just buy the index —which works only in the world whereAI ends up commoditised rather thanconcentrated. Last stated 5 months ago 4 Jun 2026 AI Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: A human being is not an AGI: we lack a huge amount of knowledge and rely on continual learning instead, so continual learning is what superintelligence should mean. — tap to centre the map on it A human being is not an AGI: we lacka huge amount of knowledge and relyon continual learning instead, socontinual learning is whatsuperintelligence should mean. Last stated 11 months ago 25 Nov 2025 IS Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitutefor a well-specified conventionalalgorithm, so it cannot simply bedropped into a complex problem andtrusted. Last stated a year ago 7 Jun 2025 GM Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: A proposal to pace frontier AI development is unrealistic and mainly serves political control of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A proposal to pace frontier AIdevelopment is unrealistic andmainly serves political control ofAI. Last stated 2 months ago 18 Sept 2026 BT Ben Thompson — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: Adapting over time is a workable answer to humans misusing AI and no answer at all to losing control of systems smarter than us. — tap to centre the map on it Adapting over time is a workableanswer to humans misusing AI and noanswer at all to losing control ofsystems smarter than us. Last stated 2 years ago 5 Apr 2025 HT Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-05 — tap for who they are Same subject: Advanced AI is close enough that the preparations which take years have to be started now, whichever end of the expert range you believe. — tap to centre the map on it Advanced AI is close enough that thepreparations which take years haveto be started now, whichever end ofthe expert range you believe. Last stated 2 years ago 1 Apr 2025 HT Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-01 — tap for who they are MB Miles Brundage — holds since 2024-12-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: A suitably advanced digital computer can acquire general intelligence. — tap to centre the map on it A suitably advanced digital computercan acquire general intelligence. Last stated 12 years ago 16 Jan 2015 SH Sam Harris — holds since 2015-01-16 — tap for who they are Same subject: A true artificial general intelligence cannot exist without being recognized as a moral subject. — tap to centre the map on it A true artificial generalintelligence cannot exist withoutbeing recognized as a moral subject. Last stated a year ago 10 Jun 2025 SH Samuel Hammond — holds since 2025-06-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: AGI research made no progress in its first six decades. — tap to centre the map on it AGI research made no progress in itsfirst six decades. Last stated 14 years ago 3 Oct 2012 DD David Deutsch — holds since 2012-10-03 — tap for who they are
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At the centre There will be a complete four-year doubling of world output before there is ever a one-year doubling. Last stated 24 Feb 2018 · 9 years ago Holds Paul Christiano Read this korrent →