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← It is extremely difficult to know what the world will look like six months or a year from now.

17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 15 Jun 2012 to 10 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under humility humility Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Everything filed under reinforcement learning reinforcement learning Everything filed under scaling laws scaling laws Everything filed under innovation innovation Everything filed under America America Everything filed under AGI AGI Everything filed under management management Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: It is extremely difficult to know what the world will look like six months or a year from now. It is extremely difficult to know what theworld will look like six months or a yearfrom now. Last stated 12 months ago 10 Nov 2025 CR Carl Rivera — holds since 2025-11-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: Nobody knows what the world will look like in the near future — tap to centre the map on it Nobody knows what the world willlook like in the near future Last stated 2 years ago 28 Mar 2025 DH David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2025-03-28 — tap for who they are Same subject: So much is happening that, as of early 2026, the world changes every three weeks. — tap to centre the map on it So much is happening that, as ofearly 2026, the world changes everythree weeks. Last stated 9 months ago 18 Jan 2026 TL Tobias Lütke — holds since 2026-01-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: The next six months of model progress will feel like the last two years of it. — tap to centre the map on it The next six months of modelprogress will feel like the last twoyears of it. Last stated 3 months ago 28 Jul 2026 SA Sam Altman — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI products should probably aim at where the models will be in two to three months, neither anchored in the present nor futuristic and unusable. — tap to centre the map on it AI products should probably aim atwhere the models will be in two tothree months, neither anchored inthe present nor futuristic andunusable. Last stated 2 months ago 10 Sept 2026 TS Tara Seshan — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: Even after decades of AI-driven progress, most people's daily material lives will look largely unchanged. — tap to centre the map on it Even after decades of AI-drivenprogress, most people's dailymaterial lives will look largelyunchanged. Last stated 2 months ago 9 Sept 2026 NL Nathan Lambert — holds since 2026-09-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: Before building on a gap in the general models, work out whether that gap survives six months or three years. — tap to centre the map on it Before building on a gap in thegeneral models, work out whetherthat gap survives six months orthree years. Last stated 3 months ago 30 Jul 2026 JD Jeff Dean — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: There will be a complete four-year doubling of world output before there is ever a one-year doubling. — tap to centre the map on it There will be a complete four-yeardoubling of world output beforethere is ever a one-year doubling. Last stated 9 years ago 24 Feb 2018 PC Paul Christiano — holds since 2018-02-24 — tap for who they are Same subject: How far ahead to plan depends on the pace of the market a business is in; in some markets it may be appropriate to plan many months out. — tap to centre the map on it How far ahead to plan depends on thepace of the market a business is in;in some markets it may beappropriate to plan many months out. Last stated 2 months ago 10 Sept 2026 TS Tara Seshan — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: A CEO grading themselves a failure for their mistakes does not help; every CEO makes thousands of mistakes — tap to centre the map on it A CEO grading themselves a failurefor their mistakes does not help;every CEO makes thousands ofmistakes Last stated 14 years ago 15 Jun 2012 BH Ben Horowitz — holds since 2012-06-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: A clueless person gains nothing by learning from others, because others are just as clueless. — tap to centre the map on it A clueless person gains nothing bylearning from others, because othersare just as clueless. Last stated 2 years ago 4 Dec 2024 KG Kapil Gupta — holds since 2024-12-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: A designer's assumption about where a component belongs is a personal assumption and does not mean that the market or the users will react to the component that way. — tap to centre the map on it A designer's assumption about wherea component belongs is a personalassumption and does not mean thatthe market or the users will reactto the component that way. Last stated 7 months ago 2 Apr 2026 MS Marvin Schwaibold — holds since 2026-04-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: "Return on tokens" has the same measurement problems as hours and capacity: it still hinges on a theory of value. — tap to centre the map on it "Return on tokens" has the samemeasurement problems as hours andcapacity: it still hinges on atheory of value. Last stated 3 months ago 17 Aug 2026 JC John Cutler — holds since 2026-08-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email isevidence of a bad vendor, not of alimit of AI. Last stated 10 months ago 1 Jan 2026 JL Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does notgive you a smarter model; theintelligence of the model is whatdecides how much of that window itcan actually attend to. Last stated 4 months ago 15 Jul 2026 DH Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. — tap to centre the map on it A feedback loop that reinforces abehavior pulls it toward whateverimproves the loop's own score. Last stated 2 months ago 26 Aug 2026 HK Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel. — tap to centre the map on it A physical AI company needs threeAIs, not one — the agent, thesimulator and the critic — turningdeployment into a flywheel. Last stated 3 months ago 3 Aug 2026 DD Dmitri Dolgov — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. — tap to centre the map on it A verifiable task can be optimisedby reinforcement learning until aneural network performs it extremelywell. Last stated 12 months ago 17 Nov 2025 AK Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-11-17 — tap for who they are
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At the centre It is extremely difficult to know what the world will look like six months or a year from now. Last stated 10 Nov 2025 · 12 months ago Holds Carl Rivera Read this korrent →