Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← It is extremely difficult to know what the world will look like six months or a year from now.
17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 15 Jun 2012 to 10 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under humility
humility
Everything filed under LLMs
LLMs
Everything filed under reinforcement learning
reinforcement learning
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws
Everything filed under innovation
innovation
Everything filed under America
America
Everything filed under AGI
AGI
Everything filed under management
management
Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject
Read this korrent: It is extremely difficult to know what the world will look like six months or a year from now.
It is extremely difficult to know what the world will look like six months or a year from now.
Last stated 12 months ago
10 Nov 2025
CR
Carl Rivera — holds since 2025-11-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Nobody knows what the world will look like in the near future — tap to centre the map on it
Nobody knows what the world will look like in the near future
Last stated 2 years ago
28 Mar 2025
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2025-03-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: So much is happening that, as of early 2026, the world changes every three weeks. — tap to centre the map on it
So much is happening that, as of early 2026, the world changes every three weeks.
Last stated 9 months ago
18 Jan 2026
TL
Tobias Lütke — holds since 2026-01-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The next six months of model progress will feel like the last two years of it. — tap to centre the map on it
The next six months of model progress will feel like the last two years of it.
Last stated 3 months ago
28 Jul 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI products should probably aim at where the models will be in two to three months, neither anchored in the present nor futuristic and unusable. — tap to centre the map on it
AI products should probably aim at where the models will be in two to three months, neither anchored in the present nor futuristic and unusable.
Last stated 2 months ago
10 Sept 2026
TS
Tara Seshan — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even after decades of AI-driven progress, most people's daily material lives will look largely unchanged. — tap to centre the map on it
Even after decades of AI-driven progress, most people's daily material lives will look largely unchanged.
Last stated 2 months ago
9 Sept 2026
NL
Nathan Lambert — holds since 2026-09-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Before building on a gap in the general models, work out whether that gap survives six months or three years. — tap to centre the map on it
Before building on a gap in the general models, work out whether that gap survives six months or three years.
Last stated 3 months ago
30 Jul 2026
JD
Jeff Dean — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There will be a complete four-year doubling of world output before there is ever a one-year doubling. — tap to centre the map on it
There will be a complete four-year doubling of world output before there is ever a one-year doubling.
Last stated 9 years ago
24 Feb 2018
PC
Paul Christiano — holds since 2018-02-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: How far ahead to plan depends on the pace of the market a business is in; in some markets it may be appropriate to plan many months out. — tap to centre the map on it
How far ahead to plan depends on the pace of the market a business is in; in some markets it may be appropriate to plan many months out.
Last stated 2 months ago
10 Sept 2026
TS
Tara Seshan — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A CEO grading themselves a failure for their mistakes does not help; every CEO makes thousands of mistakes — tap to centre the map on it
A CEO grading themselves a failure for their mistakes does not help; every CEO makes thousands of mistakes
Last stated 14 years ago
15 Jun 2012
BH
Ben Horowitz — holds since 2012-06-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A clueless person gains nothing by learning from others, because others are just as clueless. — tap to centre the map on it
A clueless person gains nothing by learning from others, because others are just as clueless.
Last stated 2 years ago
4 Dec 2024
KG
Kapil Gupta — holds since 2024-12-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A designer's assumption about where a component belongs is a personal assumption and does not mean that the market or the users will react to the component that way. — tap to centre the map on it
A designer's assumption about where a component belongs is a personal assumption and does not mean that the market or the users will react to the component that way.
Last stated 7 months ago
2 Apr 2026
MS
Marvin Schwaibold — holds since 2026-04-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Return on tokens" has the same measurement problems as hours and capacity: it still hinges on a theory of value. — tap to centre the map on it
"Return on tokens" has the same measurement problems as hours and capacity: it still hinges on a theory of value.
Last stated 3 months ago
17 Aug 2026
JC
John Cutler — holds since 2026-08-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it
A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI.
Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it
A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to.
Last stated 4 months ago
15 Jul 2026
DH
Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. — tap to centre the map on it
A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score.
Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
HK
Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel. — tap to centre the map on it
A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel.
Last stated 3 months ago
3 Aug 2026
DD
Dmitri Dolgov — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. — tap to centre the map on it
A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well.
Last stated 12 months ago
17 Nov 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-11-17 — tap for who they are
same subject or similar wording a cloud: claims about one subject, named for it bar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2012 to today (stretched back to the oldest claim here) — full is today a face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they are