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← The next six months of model progress will feel like the last two years of it.

17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 10 Dec 2015 to 14 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under scaling laws scaling laws Everything filed under neural networks neural networks Everything filed under benchmarks benchmarks Everything filed under reinforcement learning reinforcement learning Everything filed under AGI AGI Everything filed under LLMs LLMs Everything filed under startups startups Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: The next six months of model progress will feel like the last two years of it. The next six months of model progress willfeel like the last two years of it. Last stated 3 months ago 28 Jul 2026 SA Sam Altman — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are Same subject: Before building on a gap in the general models, work out whether that gap survives six months or three years. — tap to centre the map on it Before building on a gap in thegeneral models, work out whetherthat gap survives six months orthree years. Last stated 3 months ago 30 Jul 2026 JD Jeff Dean — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: A deliberately slower pace of AI model releases would still feel faster than the pace of AI improvement that came before it. — tap to centre the map on it A deliberately slower pace of AImodel releases would still feelfaster than the pace of AIimprovement that came before it. Last stated 2 months ago 14 Sept 2026 BH Byrne Hobart — holds since 2026-09-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: An AI product company that cannot completely reinvent itself every six months is going to lose. — tap to centre the map on it An AI product company that cannotcompletely reinvent itself every sixmonths is going to lose. Last stated 2 months ago 8 Sept 2026 RU Roman Ugarte — holds since 2026-09-08 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI products should probably aim at where the models will be in two to three months, neither anchored in the present nor futuristic and unusable. — tap to centre the map on it AI products should probably aim atwhere the models will be in two tothree months, neither anchored inthe present nor futuristic andunusable. Last stated 2 months ago 10 Sept 2026 TS Tara Seshan — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI model capabilities have not slowed down so far, and their progress probably won't stop anytime soon. — tap to centre the map on it AI model capabilities have notslowed down so far, and theirprogress probably won't stop anytimesoon. Last stated 2 months ago 3 Sept 2026 AR Armin Ronacher — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: Whatever the term, by 2030 AI progress will be so dramatic that the world will be dealing with its consequences, good and bad, in a big way. — tap to centre the map on it Whatever the term, by 2030 AIprogress will be so dramatic thatthe world will be dealing with itsconsequences, good and bad, in a bigway. Last stated a year ago 5 Jun 2025 SP Sundar Pichai — holds since 2025-06-05 — tap for who they are Same subject: It is extremely difficult to know what the world will look like six months or a year from now. — tap to centre the map on it It is extremely difficult to knowwhat the world will look like sixmonths or a year from now. Last stated 12 months ago 10 Nov 2025 CR Carl Rivera — holds since 2025-11-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: There will be no sudden fast takeoff in AI, even though model progress is happening faster than ever. — tap to centre the map on it There will be no sudden fast takeoffin AI, even though model progress ishappening faster than ever. Last stated 2 months ago 6 Sept 2026 AA Anish Acharya — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are Same subject: A feedback loop that reinforces a behavior pulls it toward whatever improves the loop's own score. — tap to centre the map on it A feedback loop that reinforces abehavior pulls it toward whateverimproves the loop's own score. Last stated 2 months ago 26 Aug 2026 HK Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel. — tap to centre the map on it A physical AI company needs threeAIs, not one — the agent, thesimulator and the critic — turningdeployment into a flywheel. Last stated 3 months ago 3 Aug 2026 DD Dmitri Dolgov — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. — tap to centre the map on it A verifiable task can be optimisedby reinforcement learning until aneural network performs it extremelywell. Last stated 12 months ago 17 Nov 2025 AK Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-11-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: A layer should learn a residual with reference to its own input rather than an unreferenced function, which is what makes great depth trainable. — tap to centre the map on it A layer should learn a residual withreference to its own input ratherthan an unreferenced function, whichis what makes great depth trainable. Last stated 11 years ago 10 Dec 2015 JS Jian Sun — holds since 2015-12-10 — tap for who they are KH Kaiming He — holds since 2015-12-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: A project-level agent memory file works like a neural net, steering the agent much as a fine-tuned LoRA steers a model. — tap to centre the map on it A project-level agent memory fileworks like a neural net, steeringthe agent much as a fine-tuned LoRAsteers a model. Last stated 2 months ago 23 Aug 2026 KC Kun Chen — holds since 2026-08-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: A small enough winning ticket learns faster than the network it was cut out of, and ends up more accurate than it. — tap to centre the map on it A small enough winning ticket learnsfaster than the network it was cutout of, and ends up more accuratethan it. Last stated 9 years ago 9 Mar 2018 MC Michael Carbin — holds since 2018-03-09 — tap for who they are JF Jonathan Frankle — holds since 2018-03-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: 'Everyone gets it wrong sometimes' is a bad argument when assessing track records. — tap to centre the map on it 'Everyone gets it wrong sometimes'is a bad argument when assessingtrack records. Last stated 3 months ago 2 Aug 2026 AK Adam Kucharski — holds since 2026-08-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: A benchmark that ranks Claude Code last while it stays first in use is measuring the wrong thing, and has been for a year. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark that ranks Claude Codelast while it stays first in use ismeasuring the wrong thing, and hasbeen for a year. Last stated 2 months ago 3 Sept 2026 DR Dax Raad — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: A carmaker's claim to be the safest is mostly an artefact of comparing a new car against a fleet average twelve years old. — tap to centre the map on it A carmaker's claim to be the safestis mostly an artefact of comparing anew car against a fleet averagetwelve years old. Last stated 3 years ago 19 Dec 2023 PK Philip Koopman — holds since 2023-12-19 — tap for who they are
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At the centre The next six months of model progress will feel like the last two years of it. Last stated 28 Jul 2026 · 3 months ago Holds Sam Altman Read this korrent →