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← The world's roughly 193 sovereign nation-states are unlikely to remain a fixed number indefinitely; more will emerge.
17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 7 Sept 2008 to 22 Sept 2026.
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Read this korrent: The world's roughly 193 sovereign nation-states are unlikely to remain a fixed number indefinitely; more will emerge.
The world's roughly 193 sovereign nation-states are unlikely to remain a fixed number indefinitely; more will emerge.
Last stated 3 months ago
28 Jul 2026
BS
Balaji Srinivasan — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Continual learning will probably be solved within a year or two, but the trillions of dollars do not depend on solving it. — tap to centre the map on it
Continual learning will probably be solved within a year or two, but the trillions of dollars do not depend on solving it.
Last stated 8 months ago
13 Feb 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-02-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: How big a system will eventually have to be is not worth speculating about; the only useful question is how long the one you have has left before it hits the wall. — tap to centre the map on it
How big a system will eventually have to be is not worth speculating about; the only useful question is how long the one you have has left before it hits the wall.
Last stated 7 months ago
1 Apr 2026
TP
Thuan Pham — holds since 2026-04-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even a country of geniuses in a datacentre will not be an infinitely compelling product; it buys three to ten times growth a year, not instant adoption. — tap to centre the map on it
Even a country of geniuses in a datacentre will not be an infinitely compelling product; it buys three to ten times growth a year, not instant adoption.
Last stated 8 months ago
13 Feb 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-02-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: We will have a country of geniuses in a datacentre within ten years. — tap to centre the map on it
We will have a country of geniuses in a datacentre within ten years.
Last stated 8 months ago
13 Feb 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-02-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it
Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate.
Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival. — tap to centre the map on it
Human-level AI is most likely centuries or millennia away, so there is no reason to reorganise one's work around its arrival.
Last stated 3 years ago
13 Dec 2023
SA
Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The Maya calendar never said the world ends in 2012, and their own texts talk about time after it. — tap to centre the map on it
The Maya calendar never said the world ends in 2012, and their own texts talk about time after it.
Last stated 2 years ago
30 Sept 2024
EB
Ed Barnhart — holds since 2024-09-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is probably no bottom level of reality we will ever reach; physics will keep penetrating layers without ever arriving at the last one. — tap to centre the map on it
There is probably no bottom level of reality we will ever reach; physics will keep penetrating layers without ever arriving at the last one.
Last stated 3 years ago
3 Dec 2023
LR
Lisa Randall — holds since 2023-12-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. — tap to centre the map on it
A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.
Last stated a month ago
22 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A broken criminal justice institution survives precisely because it serves the people who run it. — tap to centre the map on it
A broken criminal justice institution survives precisely because it serves the people who run it.
Last stated 2 months ago
1 Sept 2026
RB
Radley Balko — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A candidate's political success is increasingly disconnected from their actual record of accomplishment. — tap to centre the map on it
A candidate's political success is increasingly disconnected from their actual record of accomplishment.
Last stated 2 months ago
31 Aug 2026
DD
Daniel W. Drezner — holds since 2026-08-31 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement. — tap to centre the map on it
A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement.
Last stated 2 months ago
21 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending. — tap to centre the map on it
A government's debt dynamics are a household's or a company's, except that it can print money and tax -- and those two powers are what change the ending.
Last stated 2 months ago
21 Aug 2026
RD
Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases. — tap to centre the map on it
A longer average debt maturity protects a government from temporary interest-rate spikes and gives it more time to adjust to permanent rate increases.
Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A healthy democracy engages with protesters to hear their claims — tap to centre the map on it
A healthy democracy engages with protesters to hear their claims
Last stated 5 years ago
9 Feb 2022
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2022-02-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Authoritarian order is more natural to human societies than democracy, and may prove more durable over time. — tap to centre the map on it
Authoritarian order is more natural to human societies than democracy, and may prove more durable over time.
Last stated 8 months ago
1 Mar 2026
TG
Tanner Greer — holds since 2026-03-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Chamberlain's choice at Munich was understandable rather than craven: no democratic leader in 1938 could have taken his country to war against 92% of its population. — tap to centre the map on it
Chamberlain's choice at Munich was understandable rather than craven: no democratic leader in 1938 could have taken his country to war against 92% of its population.
Last stated a year ago
24 May 2025
JH
James Holland — holds since 2025-05-24 — tap for who they are
same subject or similar wording a cloud: claims about one subject, named for it bar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2008 to today (stretched back to the oldest claim here) — full is today a face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they are faded, dashed ring: they no longer hold it — they changed their mind