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← The most surprising thing about the last three years is not the…
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 11 Oct 2018 to 11 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under scaling laws
scaling laws
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innovation
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mathematics
Everything filed under AGI
AGI Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: The most surprising thing about the last three years is not the technology but how few people recognise we are near the end of the exponential. The most surprising thing about the last three years is not the technology but how few people recognise we are near the end of the exponential. Last stated 8 months ago
13 Feb 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-02-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The thing worth finding is the exponential with the steepest curve that will run the longest — decades ago that was Moore’s law, and today it is AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it The thing worth finding is the exponential with the steepest curve that will run the longest — decades ago that was Moore’s law, and today it is AI progress. Last stated 3 months ago
29 Jul 2026
AW
Alexandr Wang — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no economically valuable improvements traceable to it. — tap to centre the map on it It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no economically valuable improvements traceable to it. Last stated 4 months ago
30 Jun 2026
GS
Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The case for a technological slowdown since about 1970 is not convincing. — tap to centre the map on it The case for a technological slowdown since about 1970 is not convincing. Last stated 6 years ago
23 Jan 2021
JC
Jason Crawford — no longer holds since 2021-01-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. — tap to centre the map on it We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. Last stated a year ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An obvious technological shift can take so long to arrive that observers give up expecting it, only for it to happen right after they stop watching for it. — tap to centre the map on it An obvious technological shift can take so long to arrive that observers give up expecting it, only for it to happen right after they stop watching for it. Last stated 4 weeks ago
23 Sept 2026
HD
Horace Dediu — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: People with business theses based on the idea that we are not yet at a certain technological threshold will be disrupted by AI's exponential progress faster than they think. — tap to centre the map on it People with business theses based on the idea that we are not yet at a certain technological threshold will be disrupted by AI's exponential progress faster than they think. Last stated 2 weeks ago
11 Oct 2026
PL
Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-10-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The big companies are already dead and simply do not know it yet; every innovation from here comes from the fringes. — tap to centre the map on it The big companies are already dead and simply do not know it yet; every innovation from here comes from the fringes. Last stated 7 months ago
11 Mar 2026
SY
Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Agent harnesses are only at the beginning, with probably a lot more innovation still to come. — tap to centre the map on it Agent harnesses are only at the beginning, with probably a lot more innovation still to come. Last stated 3 months ago
30 Jul 2026
BV
Ben Vinegar — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. — tap to centre the map on it "Scaling" was powerful because it was one word: naming a research direction is what tells a whole field what to do next. Last stated 11 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. — tap to centre the map on it A benchmark result should be reported under a stated budget, or as a curve against test-time compute — never as a single number. Last stated 4 months ago
26 Jun 2026
NB
Noam Brown — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. — tap to centre the map on it A lab should spend most of its compute on research rather than on building the next model, because research is where the tenfold yearly efficiency gains come from. Last stated 7 months ago
13 Mar 2026
DP
Dylan Patel — holds since 2026-03-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: As models keep growing, AI is running out of enough high-quality unique training tokens to keep up. — tap to centre the map on it As models keep growing, AI is running out of enough high-quality unique training tokens to keep up. Last stated 4 months ago
24 Jun 2026
LW
Lilian Weng — holds since 2026-06-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Current techniques restrict pre-trained representation power because standard language models are unidirectional. — tap to centre the map on it Current techniques restrict pre-trained representation power because standard language models are unidirectional. Last stated 8 years ago
11 Oct 2018
KT
Kristina Toutanova — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are
MC
Ming-Wei Chang — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are
KL
Kenton Lee — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are
JD
Jacob Devlin — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Models resemble each other because pre-training is the same everywhere; what differentiates labs now is RL and post-training. — tap to centre the map on it Models resemble each other because pre-training is the same everywhere; what differentiates labs now is RL and post-training. Last stated 11 months ago
25 Nov 2025
IS
Ilya Sutskever — holds since 2025-11-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: One pre-trained robot model now matches or beats the specialists that were fine-tuned with reinforcement learning for the very tasks they were built for. — tap to centre the map on it One pre-trained robot model now matches or beats the specialists that were fine-tuned with reinforcement learning for the very tasks they were built for. Last stated 2 months ago
12 Aug 2026
CF
Chelsea Finn — holds since 2026-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Pre-training is a crappy evolution: the practically buildable substitute for the process that gave animals their built-in hardware. — tap to centre the map on it Pre-training is a crappy evolution: the practically buildable substitute for the process that gave animals their built-in hardware. Last stated a year ago
17 Oct 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are