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← The most surprising thing about the last three years is not the…

17 connected korrents · 16 moments on record from 7 Sept 2008 to 18 Aug 2026.

Everything filed under mathematics mathematics Everything filed under innovation innovation Everything filed under AI and human skill AI and human skill Everything filed under physics physics Everything filed under AI and science AI and science Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: The most surprising thing about the last three years is not the technology but how few people recognise we are near the end of the exponential. The most surprising thing about the lastthree years is not the technology but howfew people recognise we are near the endof the exponential. Last stated 7 months ago 13 Feb 2026 DA Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-02-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: The thing worth finding is the exponential with the steepest curve that will run the longest — decades ago that was Moore’s law, and today it is AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it The thing worth finding is theexponential with the steepest curvethat will run the longest — decadesago that was Moore’s law, and todayit is AI progress. Last stated a month ago 29 Jul 2026 AW Alexandr Wang — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: It would be disappointing and surprising if the next five years of AI progress in mathematics produced no economically valuable improvements traceable to it. — tap to centre the map on it It would be disappointing andsurprising if the next five years ofAI progress in mathematics producedno economically valuableimprovements traceable to it. Last stated 2 months ago 30 Jun 2026 GS Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: The case for a technological slowdown since about 1970 is not convincing. — tap to centre the map on it The case for a technologicalslowdown since about 1970 is notconvincing. Last stated 6 years ago 23 Jan 2021 JC Jason Crawford — no longer holds since 2021-01-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: We are already in an intelligence explosion and have been for decades, so AI will show up as more of the same exponential rather than a break in it. — tap to centre the map on it We are already in an intelligenceexplosion and have been for decades,so AI will show up as more of thesame exponential rather than a breakin it. Last stated 11 months ago 17 Oct 2025 AK Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-10-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: The big companies are already dead and simply do not know it yet; every innovation from here comes from the fringes. — tap to centre the map on it The big companies are already deadand simply do not know it yet; everyinnovation from here comes from thefringes. Last stated 6 months ago 11 Mar 2026 SY Steve Yegge — holds since 2026-03-11 — tap for who they are Same subject: Within a couple of decades there will not be many people who can write, because AI has removed the pressure to learn. — tap to centre the map on it Within a couple of decades therewill not be many people who canwrite, because AI has removed thepressure to learn. Last stated 2 years ago 1 Oct 2024 PG Paul Graham — holds since 2024-10-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: There is probably no bottom level of reality we will ever reach; physics will keep penetrating layers without ever arriving at the last one. — tap to centre the map on it There is probably no bottom level ofreality we will ever reach; physicswill keep penetrating layers withoutever arriving at the last one. Last stated 3 years ago 3 Dec 2023 LR Lisa Randall — holds since 2023-12-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: Human-level artificial intelligence is plausibly centuries or millennia away, and no trend supports a shorter estimate. — tap to centre the map on it Human-level artificial intelligenceis plausibly centuries or millenniaaway, and no trend supports ashorter estimate. Last stated 3 years ago 13 Dec 2023 SA Scott Aaronson — holds since 2008-09-07 — tap for who they are SA Scott Aaronson — no longer holds since 2023-12-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: A competitor six months or a year behind the frontier can stay close, because the cost of AI falls more than tenfold every year. — tap to centre the map on it A competitor six months or a yearbehind the frontier can stay close,because the cost of AI falls morethan tenfold every year. Last stated 8 months ago 8 Jan 2026 JH Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-01-08 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country cannot have radical technological breakthroughs and also refuse to tolerate uncomfortably rich people, because the financial system it resents is what funds the innovation. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot have radicaltechnological breakthroughs and alsorefuse to tolerate uncomfortablyrich people, because the financialsystem it resents is what funds theinnovation. Last stated a year ago 13 Aug 2025 KJ Keyu Jin — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: A model company may face a winner's curse: it does all the hard innovation and is then one copy away from being commoditised. — tap to centre the map on it A model company may face a winner'scurse: it does all the hardinnovation and is then one copy awayfrom being commoditised. Last stated 10 months ago 12 Nov 2025 SN Satya Nadella — holds since 2025-11-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: A proof and an explanation are different things, and a theorem can stay an unsolved expository problem long after it is proved. — tap to centre the map on it A proof and an explanation aredifferent things, and a theorem canstay an unsolved expository problemlong after it is proved. Last stated 2 months ago 30 Jun 2026 GS Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: A stream of AI-written papers with any error rate at all becomes insufferable, because finding the error costs more than the paper is worth even at ninety-nine percent. — tap to centre the map on it A stream of AI-written papers withany error rate at all becomesinsufferable, because finding theerror costs more than the paper isworth even at ninety-nine percent. Last stated 2 months ago 30 Jun 2026 GS Grant Sanderson — holds since 2026-06-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: Academic credentials — grades, major, the prestige of the degree — barely matter to industry hiring. — tap to centre the map on it Academic credentials — grades,major, the prestige of the degree —barely matter to industry hiring. Last stated 15 years ago 28 Oct 2011 PM Patrick McKenzie — holds since 2011-10-28 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI could compete with human mathematicians once it acquires a mathematical sense of smell: knowing which way of splitting a problem makes it easier rather than harder. — tap to centre the map on it AI could compete with humanmathematicians once it acquires amathematical sense of smell: knowingwhich way of splitting a problemmakes it easier rather than harder. Last stated a year ago 14 Jun 2025 TT Terence Tao — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI in chess and mathematics does not explain anything; it says which position is better, and humans build the theory from that. — tap to centre the map on it AI in chess and mathematics does notexplain anything; it says whichposition is better, and humans buildthe theory from that. Last stated a year ago 14 Jun 2025 LF Lex Fridman — holds since 2025-06-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI will transform how scientific discovery is done, and within two or three years a working scientist's job will already look dramatically different. — tap to centre the map on it AI will transform how scientificdiscovery is done, and within two orthree years a working scientist'sjob will already look dramaticallydifferent. Last stated 3 weeks ago 18 Aug 2026 MK Michael Kratsios — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
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At the centre The most surprising thing about the last three years is not the technology but how few people recognise we are near the end of the exponential. Last stated 13 Feb 2026 · 7 months ago Holds Dario Amodei Read this korrent →