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← The direction of polling error is hard to predict because pollsters are trying to correct for past errors.

17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 14 May 2018 to 30 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under America America Everything filed under politics politics Everything filed under China China Everything filed under behavioural science behavioural science Everything filed under optimism optimism Everything filed under AI alignment AI alignment Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: The direction of polling error is hard to predict because pollsters are trying to correct for past errors. The direction of polling error is hard topredict because pollsters are trying tocorrect for past errors. Last stated today 30 Oct 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: Polls may be biased in either direction — tap to centre the map on it Polls may be biased in eitherdirection Last stated 4 weeks ago 3 Oct 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: Small polling errors can produce large electoral effects. — tap to centre the map on it Small polling errors can producelarge electoral effects. Last stated a month ago 23 Sept 2026 JM Josh Marshall — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side. — tap to centre the map on it Far more probability estimates erron the over-optimistic side than theunder-optimistic side. Last stated 8 years ago 14 May 2018 SP Shane Parrish — holds since 2018-05-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight. — tap to centre the map on it Debiasing has largely failed, andthat is fine, because the biasesidentified are experience-builtheuristics that only look likebiases in hindsight. Last stated 4 years ago 9 Aug 2022 GK Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: Relying on AI misbehavior appearing gradually during training to catch misalignment may fail at exactly the most dangerous time. — tap to centre the map on it Relying on AI misbehavior appearinggradually during training to catchmisalignment may fail at exactly themost dangerous time. Last stated 2 months ago 2 Sept 2026 ZM Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-02 — tap for who they are Same subject: Willingness to answer a poll is correlated with voting Democratic. — tap to centre the map on it Willingness to answer a poll iscorrelated with voting Democratic. Last stated a week ago 20 Oct 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: Forming an impression very quickly leads to spending the time confirming it rather than collecting evidence, so a wrong first impression is unlikely to be corrected. — tap to centre the map on it Forming an impression very quicklyleads to spending the timeconfirming it rather than collectingevidence, so a wrong firstimpression is unlikely to becorrected. Last stated 7 years ago 12 Oct 2019 DK Daniel Kahneman — holds since 2019-10-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: It would take a polling error of epic proportions for Democrats to fail to pick up the House chamber. — tap to centre the map on it It would take a polling error ofepic proportions for Democrats tofail to pick up the House chamber. Last stated 5 days ago 25 Oct 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: A ban on diesel exports would raise overall fuel prices and damage America's energy superpower status. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on diesel exports would raiseoverall fuel prices and damageAmerica's energy superpower status. Last stated 4 weeks ago 1 Oct 2026 AE Alex Epstein — holds since 2026-10-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A ban on U.S. diesel fuel exports is more likely to raise prices than lower them. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on U.S. diesel fuel exports ismore likely to raise prices thanlower them. Last stated a month ago 23 Sept 2026 JM Josh Marshall — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely. — tap to centre the map on it A century of fire suppression policyin the American West has dangerouslyoverloaded forests with fuel andmade megafires more likely. Last stated 2 months ago 22 Aug 2026 JP Jennifer Pahlka — holds since 2026-08-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. — tap to centre the map on it A Chinese crewed landing on the Moonbefore America returns would be adefeat for the free world. Last stated 2 months ago 18 Aug 2026 CH Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-10-31 — tap for who they are EB Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. — tap to centre the map on it A continental army's first missionis to keep the regime in power, notto defend the border — which is whatthe People's Liberation Army is for. Last stated 5 months ago 9 Jun 2026 SP Sarah Paine — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot fund its ownindustrial strategy and call thesame policy cheating when China doesit. Last stated a year ago 15 May 2025 HR Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: A backlash against women's economic rise is not automatic; it happens only where politicians choose to mobilise it. — tap to centre the map on it A backlash against women's economicrise is not automatic; it happensonly where politicians choose tomobilise it. Last stated 2 years ago 1 Dec 2024 AE Alice Evans — holds since 2024-12-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A candidate's political success is increasingly disconnected from their actual record of accomplishment. — tap to centre the map on it A candidate's political success isincreasingly disconnected from theiractual record of accomplishment. Last stated 2 months ago 31 Aug 2026 DD Daniel W. Drezner — holds since 2026-08-31 — tap for who they are Same subject: A citizen deciding politically should ask what is good for the community, not what is good for themselves — tap to centre the map on it A citizen deciding politicallyshould ask what is good for thecommunity, not what is good forthemselves JT Joseph Tussman — holds since c. 2000 — tap for who they are
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At the centre The direction of polling error is hard to predict because pollsters are trying to correct for past errors. Last stated 30 Oct 2026 · today Holds Nate Silver Read this korrent →