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← Small polling errors can produce large electoral effects.

15 connected korrents · 15 moments from 10 Nov 2018 to 25 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under America America Everything filed under government government Everything filed under China China Everything filed under politics politics Everything filed under product management product management Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Small polling errors can produce large electoral effects. Small polling errors can produce largeelectoral effects. Last stated a month ago 23 Sept 2026 JM Josh Marshall — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: Polls may be biased in either direction — tap to centre the map on it Polls may be biased in eitherdirection Last stated 4 weeks ago 3 Oct 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: Apparently small effects can be quite significant when applied to large populations. — tap to centre the map on it Apparently small effects can bequite significant when applied tolarge populations. Last stated a month ago 23 Sept 2026 JH Jon Haidt — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: It would take a polling error of epic proportions for Democrats to fail to pick up the House chamber. — tap to centre the map on it It would take a polling error ofepic proportions for Democrats tofail to pick up the House chamber. Last stated 4 days ago 25 Oct 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: People voting yes deeply misunderstand the power of network effects — tap to centre the map on it People voting yes deeplymisunderstand the power of networkeffects Last stated 2 weeks ago 15 Oct 2026 DM Dillon Mulroy — holds since 2026-10-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: Politicians increasingly govern by what polls well rather than by what actually produces outcomes voters are satisfied with. — tap to centre the map on it Politicians increasingly govern bywhat polls well rather than by whatactually produces outcomes votersare satisfied with. Last stated 3 months ago 17 Jul 2026 JB Josh Barro — holds since 2026-07-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: People who set Key Results often mistake completing a task for delivering an outcome that benefits customers. — tap to centre the map on it People who set Key Results oftenmistake completing a task fordelivering an outcome that benefitscustomers. Last stated 8 years ago 10 Nov 2018 TG Tren Griffin — holds since 2018-11-10 — tap for who they are Same subject: A ban on diesel exports would raise overall fuel prices and damage America's energy superpower status. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on diesel exports would raiseoverall fuel prices and damageAmerica's energy superpower status. Last stated 4 weeks ago 1 Oct 2026 AE Alex Epstein — holds since 2026-10-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A ban on U.S. diesel fuel exports is more likely to raise prices than lower them. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on U.S. diesel fuel exports ismore likely to raise prices thanlower them. Last stated a month ago 23 Sept 2026 JM Josh Marshall — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are Same subject: A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely. — tap to centre the map on it A century of fire suppression policyin the American West has dangerouslyoverloaded forests with fuel andmade megafires more likely. Last stated 2 months ago 22 Aug 2026 JP Jennifer Pahlka — holds since 2026-08-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. — tap to centre the map on it A Chinese crewed landing on the Moonbefore America returns would be adefeat for the free world. Last stated 2 months ago 18 Aug 2026 CH Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-10-31 — tap for who they are EB Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. — tap to centre the map on it A continental army's first missionis to keep the regime in power, notto defend the border — which is whatthe People's Liberation Army is for. Last stated 5 months ago 9 Jun 2026 SP Sarah Paine — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot fund its ownindustrial strategy and call thesame policy cheating when China doesit. Last stated a year ago 15 May 2025 HR Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on self-recursive improvementin AI models would create a bigincentive for some other parts ofthe world to invest a lot more incompute. Last stated a month ago 22 Sept 2026 TC Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: A broken criminal justice institution survives precisely because it serves the people who run it. — tap to centre the map on it A broken criminal justiceinstitution survives preciselybecause it serves the people who runit. Last stated 2 months ago 1 Sept 2026 RB Radley Balko — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A competent, empowered civil service that performs crucial government functions with in-house expertise is good. — tap to centre the map on it A competent, empowered civil servicethat performs crucial governmentfunctions with in-house expertise isgood. Last stated a month ago 18 Sept 2026 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
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At the centre Small polling errors can produce large electoral effects. Last stated 23 Sept 2026 · a month ago Holds Josh Marshall Read this korrent →