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← Apparently small effects can be quite significant when applied to large populations.
17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 30 Aug 2005 to 26 Sept 2026.
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metascience
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venture capital Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Apparently small effects can be quite significant when applied to large populations. Apparently small effects can be quite significant when applied to large populations. Last stated a month ago
23 Sept 2026
JH
Jon Haidt — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Population size is not what limited human adaptation; time is. A selection coefficient of half a percent works as well in a thousand people as in a million. — tap to centre the map on it Population size is not what limited human adaptation; time is. A selection coefficient of half a percent works as well in a thousand people as in a million. Last stated 6 months ago
8 May 2026
DR
David Reich — holds since 2026-05-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The smaller the effects a field studies, the less likely its published findings are to be true. — tap to centre the map on it The smaller the effects a field studies, the less likely its published findings are to be true. Last stated 21 years ago
30 Aug 2005
JI
John Ioannidis — holds since 2005-08-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The empirical literature on static typing finds effects too small to matter, in the narrow settings it has managed to study. — tap to centre the map on it The empirical literature on static typing finds effects too small to matter, in the narrow settings it has managed to study. Last stated 12 years ago
7 Nov 2014
DL
Dan Luu — holds since 2014-11-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A rising share of statistically insignificant experiments is the signal that a team has exploited an area too far and should go back to exploring. — tap to centre the map on it A rising share of statistically insignificant experiments is the signal that a team has exploited an area too far and should go back to exploring. Last stated a year ago
5 Oct 2025
AC
Albert Cheng — holds since 2025-10-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny, unreplicated study should not be publicised to millions of people as though it were settled. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny, unreplicated study should not be publicised to millions of people as though it were settled. Last stated 4 years ago
11 Oct 2022
SR
Stuart Ritchie — holds since 2022-10-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Any harm can in principle be outweighed by a small enough benefit delivered to a large enough number of people. — tap to centre the map on it Any harm can in principle be outweighed by a small enough benefit delivered to a large enough number of people. Last stated 5 years ago
2 Feb 2022
HK
Holden Karnofsky — holds since 2022-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Small polling errors can produce large electoral effects. — tap to centre the map on it Small polling errors can produce large electoral effects. Last stated a month ago
23 Sept 2026
JM
Josh Marshall — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The study's small group sizes and unequal distribution increase the risk of unreliable or non-reproducible findings. — tap to centre the map on it The study's small group sizes and unequal distribution increase the risk of unreliable or non-reproducible findings. Last stated a year ago
25 Jul 2025
EB
Elisabeth Bik — holds since 2025-07-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: “Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now. — tap to centre the map on it “Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now. Last stated 3 months ago
28 Jul 2026
BS
Blake Scholl — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero. — tap to centre the map on it A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero. Last stated 3 months ago
28 Jul 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use. — tap to centre the map on it A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
JJ
Justin Jackson — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. — tap to centre the map on it A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. Last stated 5 months ago
14 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. — tap to centre the map on it A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out. — tap to centre the map on it About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out. Last stated 3 months ago
18 Jul 2026
PL
Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-07-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Automatic filters cannot replace community acceptance, and human referees cannot be removed from mathematical publication. — tap to centre the map on it Automatic filters cannot replace community acceptance, and human referees cannot be removed from mathematical publication. Last stated 2 months ago
17 Aug 2026
TT
Terence Tao — holds since 2026-08-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Combining multiple AI models' outputs into one final answer tends to discard most of the good ideas that only one model produced. — tap to centre the map on it Combining multiple AI models' outputs into one final answer tends to discard most of the good ideas that only one model produced. Last stated 4 months ago
15 Jun 2026
RK
Rohit Krishnan — holds since 2026-06-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Fear of strong AI models killing everyone was not based on peer-reviewed research showing high doom odds, nor indicated by market prices. — tap to centre the map on it Fear of strong AI models killing everyone was not based on peer-reviewed research showing high doom odds, nor indicated by market prices. Last stated a month ago
26 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-26 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Apparently small effects can be quite significant when applied to large populations.
Holds Read this korrent →
Population size is not what limited human adaptation; time is. A selection coefficient of half a percent works as well in a thousand people as in a million.
Holds
The smaller the effects a field studies, the less likely its published findings are to be true.
Holds
The empirical literature on static typing finds effects too small to matter, in the narrow settings it has managed to study.
Holds
A rising share of statistically insignificant experiments is the signal that a team has exploited an area too far and should go back to exploring.
Holds
A tiny, unreplicated study should not be publicised to millions of people as though it were settled.
Holds
Any harm can in principle be outweighed by a small enough benefit delivered to a large enough number of people.
Holds
Small polling errors can produce large electoral effects.
Holds
The study's small group sizes and unequal distribution increase the risk of unreliable or non-reproducible findings.
Holds
“Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now.
Holds
A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero.
Holds
A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use.
Holds
A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit.
Holds
A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for.
Holds
About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out.
Holds
Automatic filters cannot replace community acceptance, and human referees cannot be removed from mathematical publication.
Holds
Combining multiple AI models' outputs into one final answer tends to discard most of the good ideas that only one model produced.
Holds
Fear of strong AI models killing everyone was not based on peer-reviewed research showing high doom odds, nor indicated by market prices.
Holds