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← Polls may be biased in either direction
17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 9 Aug 2022 to 3 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under politics
politics
Everything filed under journalism
journalism
Everything filed under war
war
Everything filed under China
China
Everything filed under AI and science
AI and science
Everything filed under behavioural science
behavioural science Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Polls may be biased in either direction Polls may be biased in either direction Last stated today
3 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Polls have a systematic bias that is not consistent — tap to centre the map on it Polls have a systematic bias that is not consistent Last stated today
3 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Democrats' polling strength may be concentrated in red states rather than blue states. — tap to centre the map on it Democrats' polling strength may be concentrated in red states rather than blue states. Last stated a week ago
24 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: In a midterm year, a new poll in one state affects perceptions of that state's race but not the national political environment. — tap to centre the map on it In a midterm year, a new poll in one state affects perceptions of that state's race but not the national political environment. Last stated 4 weeks ago
3 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Expert ratings are misaligned with historical trends and current indicators regarding the political environment. — tap to centre the map on it Expert ratings are misaligned with historical trends and current indicators regarding the political environment. Last stated 2 weeks ago
20 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Race raters may be underestimating the likelihood of a "blue wave" in midterm elections. — tap to centre the map on it Race raters may be underestimating the likelihood of a "blue wave" in midterm elections. Last stated 2 weeks ago
22 Sept 2026
DD
Daniel W. Drezner — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Failing to adjust raw data for known measurement biases produces inaccurate results. — tap to centre the map on it Failing to adjust raw data for known measurement biases produces inaccurate results. Last stated 2 months ago
27 Jul 2026
AD
Andrew Dessler — holds since 2026-07-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight. — tap to centre the map on it Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Certainty about God is eroding at the same rate on the left and the right, and only the starting level differs. — tap to centre the map on it Certainty about God is eroding at the same rate on the left and the right, and only the starting level differs. Last stated a month ago
20 Aug 2026
RB
Ryan Burge — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A correction never travels as far as the scare it corrects: the press said a fifth of the project's skills were malicious, and the measured figure was 0.3 percent. — tap to centre the map on it A correction never travels as far as the scare it corrects: the press said a fifth of the project's skills were malicious, and the measured figure was 0.3 percent. Last stated 2 months ago
10 Aug 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-08-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An audience is not buying the subject you cover; it is buying your interest in the subject. — tap to centre the map on it An audience is not buying the subject you cover; it is buying your interest in the subject. Last stated 10 months ago
15 Dec 2025
ML
Michael Lewis — holds since 2025-12-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Ask who benefits from you reading a piece of news, and you conclude that perhaps 95 percent of it was published to get you to buy, support, fight or donate. — tap to centre the map on it Ask who benefits from you reading a piece of news, and you conclude that perhaps 95 percent of it was published to get you to buy, support, fight or donate. Last stated a year ago
30 Sept 2025
PD
Pavel Durov — holds since 2025-09-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. — tap to centre the map on it A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. Last stated 4 months ago
9 Jun 2026
SP
Sarah Paine — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. Last stated a year ago
15 May 2025
HR
Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country's large manufacturing surplus can be a reflection of weak domestic consumption and misallocated resources. — tap to centre the map on it A country's large manufacturing surplus can be a reflection of weak domestic consumption and misallocated resources. Last stated a week ago
24 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is no such thing as an unbiased source of information; understanding the world means reading conflicting sources that hate each other. — tap to centre the map on it There is no such thing as an unbiased source of information; understanding the world means reading conflicting sources that hate each other. Last stated a year ago
30 Sept 2025
PD
Pavel Durov — holds since 2025-09-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: 'As long as it takes' lacks urgency, and it is a formula available to Ukraine's allies precisely because they are not the ones doing the fighting. — tap to centre the map on it 'As long as it takes' lacks urgency, and it is a formula available to Ukraine's allies precisely because they are not the ones doing the fighting. Last stated 12 months ago
10 Oct 2025
LF
Lawrence Freedman — holds since 2025-10-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: 9/11 and Osama bin Laden's actions fundamentally shaped the world we live in today. — tap to centre the map on it 9/11 and Osama bin Laden's actions fundamentally shaped the world we live in today. Last stated 3 weeks ago
11 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-11 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Polls may be biased in either direction
Holds Read this korrent →
Polls have a systematic bias that is not consistent
Holds
Democrats' polling strength may be concentrated in red states rather than blue states.
Holds
In a midterm year, a new poll in one state affects perceptions of that state's race but not the national political environment.
Holds
Expert ratings are misaligned with historical trends and current indicators regarding the political environment.
Holds
Race raters may be underestimating the likelihood of a "blue wave" in midterm elections.
Holds
Failing to adjust raw data for known measurement biases produces inaccurate results.
Holds
Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight.
Holds
Certainty about God is eroding at the same rate on the left and the right, and only the starting level differs.
Holds
A correction never travels as far as the scare it corrects: the press said a fifth of the project's skills were malicious, and the measured figure was 0.3 percent.
Holds
An audience is not buying the subject you cover; it is buying your interest in the subject.
Holds
Ask who benefits from you reading a piece of news, and you conclude that perhaps 95 percent of it was published to get you to buy, support, fight or donate.
Holds
A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for.
Holds
A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it.
Holds
A country's large manufacturing surplus can be a reflection of weak domestic consumption and misallocated resources.
Holds
There is no such thing as an unbiased source of information; understanding the world means reading conflicting sources that hate each other.
Holds
'As long as it takes' lacks urgency, and it is a formula available to Ukraine's allies precisely because they are not the ones doing the fighting.
Holds
9/11 and Osama bin Laden's actions fundamentally shaped the world we live in today.
Holds