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← Polls have a systematic bias that is not consistent
17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 9 Aug 2022 to 3 Oct 2026. Nearly all of them are about politics .
Everything filed under America
America
Everything filed under war
war
Everything filed under tariffs
tariffs
Everything filed under China
China
Everything filed under behavioural science
behavioural science Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Polls have a systematic bias that is not consistent Polls have a systematic bias that is not consistent Last stated today
3 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Polls may be biased in either direction — tap to centre the map on it Polls may be biased in either direction Last stated today
3 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: In a midterm year, a new poll in one state affects perceptions of that state's race but not the national political environment. — tap to centre the map on it In a midterm year, a new poll in one state affects perceptions of that state's race but not the national political environment. Last stated 4 weeks ago
3 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Expert ratings are misaligned with historical trends and current indicators regarding the political environment. — tap to centre the map on it Expert ratings are misaligned with historical trends and current indicators regarding the political environment. Last stated 2 weeks ago
20 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Race raters may be underestimating the likelihood of a "blue wave" in midterm elections. — tap to centre the map on it Race raters may be underestimating the likelihood of a "blue wave" in midterm elections. Last stated 2 weeks ago
22 Sept 2026
DD
Daniel W. Drezner — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Democrats' polling strength may be concentrated in red states rather than blue states. — tap to centre the map on it Democrats' polling strength may be concentrated in red states rather than blue states. Last stated a week ago
24 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Around the time liberalism gave way to progressivism, people on the left started being wrong about a ton of stuff, with Democrats falling from being right about roughly 85% of things in 2010 to about 30% and Republicans at about 15%. — tap to centre the map on it Around the time liberalism gave way to progressivism, people on the left started being wrong about a ton of stuff, with Democrats falling from being right about roughly 85% of things in 2010 to about 30% and Republicans at about 15%. Last stated 2 weeks ago
16 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: National congressional polling tends to stay stable between Labor Day and Election Day in midterm election years. — tap to centre the map on it National congressional polling tends to stay stable between Labor Day and Election Day in midterm election years. Last stated 4 weeks ago
3 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight. — tap to centre the map on it Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. — tap to centre the map on it A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. Last stated 4 months ago
9 Jun 2026
SP
Sarah Paine — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. Last stated a year ago
15 May 2025
HR
Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country's large manufacturing surplus can be a reflection of weak domestic consumption and misallocated resources. — tap to centre the map on it A country's large manufacturing surplus can be a reflection of weak domestic consumption and misallocated resources. Last stated a week ago
24 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: 'As long as it takes' lacks urgency, and it is a formula available to Ukraine's allies precisely because they are not the ones doing the fighting. — tap to centre the map on it 'As long as it takes' lacks urgency, and it is a formula available to Ukraine's allies precisely because they are not the ones doing the fighting. Last stated 12 months ago
10 Oct 2025
LF
Lawrence Freedman — holds since 2025-10-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: 9/11 and Osama bin Laden's actions fundamentally shaped the world we live in today. — tap to centre the map on it 9/11 and Osama bin Laden's actions fundamentally shaped the world we live in today. Last stated 3 weeks ago
11 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A ceasefire along the current lines would end the killing and still leave a long-term settlement between Russia and Ukraine possible. — tap to centre the map on it A ceasefire along the current lines would end the killing and still leave a long-term settlement between Russia and Ukraine possible. Last stated a month ago
26 Aug 2026
BM
Branko Milanovic — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens. — tap to centre the map on it A country should raise revenue by tariffing foreign countries rather than by taxing its own citizens. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Jan 2025
DT
Donald Trump — holds since 2025-01-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A trade dispute escalated by aggressive tariffs can still end in a negotiated outcome that leaves all sides better off. — tap to centre the map on it A trade dispute escalated by aggressive tariffs can still end in a negotiated outcome that leaves all sides better off. Last stated a year ago
30 May 2025
GS
Guy Spier — holds since 2025-05-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Cutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike and probably a debt crisis, because the budget deficit would have to be financed at home. — tap to centre the map on it Cutting off trade with tariffs would force a huge interest-rate spike and probably a debt crisis, because the budget deficit would have to be financed at home. Last stated a year ago
14 Apr 2025
JC
John H. Cochrane — holds since 2025-04-14 — tap for who they are