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← If polls are off, they will likely be off in the same direction everywhere.
17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 15 May 2025 to 2 Nov 2026.
Everything filed under China
China
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government
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immigration
Everything filed under politics
politics
Everything filed under mental models
mental models Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: If polls are off, they will likely be off in the same direction everywhere. If polls are off, they will likely be off in the same direction everywhere. Last stated today
2 Nov 2026
BD
Brad DeLong — holds since 2026-11-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Polls may be biased in either direction — tap to centre the map on it Polls may be biased in either direction Last stated 4 weeks ago
3 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Democrats will win the Senate, perhaps soundly. — tap to centre the map on it Democrats will win the Senate, perhaps soundly. Last stated today
2 Nov 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-11-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Trump says the polls are wrong not because he believes it but to set up narratives for claiming mass voter fraud on Election Day. — tap to centre the map on it Trump says the polls are wrong not because he believes it but to set up narratives for claiming mass voter fraud on Election Day. Last stated 2 weeks ago
18 Oct 2026
GM
G. Elliott Morris — holds since 2026-10-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Don't bet on Democratic Senate candidates' polling in bluer states changing dramatically in the final days leading up to the election. — tap to centre the map on it Don't bet on Democratic Senate candidates' polling in bluer states changing dramatically in the final days leading up to the election. Last stated a week ago
23 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Across nine election years since 2008, polls were biased against Democrats once, against Republicans four times, and basically unbiased four times. — tap to centre the map on it Across nine election years since 2008, polls were biased against Democrats once, against Republicans four times, and basically unbiased four times. Last stated 4 weeks ago
3 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There remains a very real chance — about 1 in 4 — that Republicans keep the Senate despite Democrats’ seeming momentum. — tap to centre the map on it There remains a very real chance — about 1 in 4 — that Republicans keep the Senate despite Democrats’ seeming momentum. Last stated 3 weeks ago
9 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Certainty about God is eroding at the same rate on the left and the right, and only the starting level differs. — tap to centre the map on it Certainty about God is eroding at the same rate on the left and the right, and only the starting level differs. Last stated 2 months ago
20 Aug 2026
RB
Ryan Burge — holds since 2026-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is a reasonably good chance that the midterm outcome, especially in the Senate, won’t be clear by Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. — tap to centre the map on it There is a reasonably good chance that the midterm outcome, especially in the Senate, won’t be clear by Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. Last stated yesterday
1 Nov 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-11-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. — tap to centre the map on it A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. Last stated 5 months ago
9 Jun 2026
SP
Sarah Paine — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. Last stated a year ago
15 May 2025
HR
Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country's scientific trajectory can keep advancing even if political instability or economic uncertainty slows its broader progress. — tap to centre the map on it A country's scientific trajectory can keep advancing even if political instability or economic uncertainty slows its broader progress. Last stated 7 months ago
21 Mar 2026
TG
Tanner Greer — holds since 2026-03-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. Last stated a month ago
22 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A broken criminal justice institution survives precisely because it serves the people who run it. — tap to centre the map on it A broken criminal justice institution survives precisely because it serves the people who run it. Last stated 2 months ago
1 Sept 2026
RB
Radley Balko — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A city should be as large as self-sufficiency needs but small enough for its rulers to oversee — tap to centre the map on it A city should be as large as self-sufficiency needs but small enough for its rulers to oversee
AR
Aristotle — holds since c. 367–322 BCE — tap for who they are
Same subject: A career path becomes popular when it offers clear, prescribed rules that can simply be decoded and followed. — tap to centre the map on it A career path becomes popular when it offers clear, prescribed rules that can simply be decoded and followed. Last stated 7 months ago
28 Mar 2026
PM
Paul Millerd — holds since 2026-03-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate. — tap to centre the map on it A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate. Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A lack of immigration is economically and geopolitically lethal. — tap to centre the map on it A lack of immigration is economically and geopolitically lethal. Last stated 3 months ago
9 Aug 2026
EL
Edward Lucas — holds since 2026-08-09 — tap for who they are