G. Elliott Morris
Data journalist and pollster; writes Strength In Numbers, an independent newsletter on polling, elections and public opinion.
G. Elliott Morris did not write this page.
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Their wordsif some Trump voters who have soured on him stop saying they voted for him, the people still claiming a Trump vote are a more loyal group than Trump's real 2024 coalition. Weighting them back up to Trump's actual share of the 2024 vote would artificially inflate the size of the super-MAGA group of voters in the electorate.
↗These 2024 Trump voters no longer admit to voting for himgelliottmorris.com
- 2 days earlier
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Our reading
An early-vote lead is not a surefire predictor of how a party will do in the final result
Their wordsSo an early advantage is not a surefire predictor of future gloom or doom. If Democrats are simply banking early voters, we should expect that this lopsided early vote advantage will dwindle as Republicans start casting their own ballots.
↗Republicans are skipping early voting. Will they show up on Election Day?gelliottmorris.com
- 2 days earlier
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Their wordsThis is not the campaign map you'd see from a party about to hold the House. This is how you campaign when you're 10 points down and trying to stem the losses.
↗In closing weeks, Republicans go on defensegelliottmorris.com 1st of 2 in this piece
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Their wordsMy Occam's Razor conclusion is that Trump is saying the polls are wrong not because he believes it (since he's not acting like it), but because he's setting up narratives to claim mass voter fraud on Election Day.
↗In closing weeks, Republicans go on defensegelliottmorris.com 2nd of 2 in this piece