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← Don't bet on Democratic Senate candidates' polling in bluer states…
15 connected korrents · 14 moments from 15 May 2025 to 23 Oct 2026. Nearly all of them are about politics .
Everything filed under America
America
Everything filed under war
war
Everything filed under government
government
Everything filed under China
China Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Don't bet on Democratic Senate candidates' polling in bluer states changing dramatically in the final days leading up to the election. Don't bet on Democratic Senate candidates' polling in bluer states changing dramatically in the final days leading up to the election. Last stated today
23 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Democratic polling overperformance has generally been strongest in the central U.S., in rural, agricultural, and energy-producing states. — tap to centre the map on it Democratic polling overperformance has generally been strongest in the central U.S., in rural, agricultural, and energy-producing states. Last stated a month ago
22 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Blue-state Republicans could be sporadically competitive by applying the national GOP formula of electorally driven culture-war stances and pro-business policy to a more left-wing electorate. — tap to centre the map on it Blue-state Republicans could be sporadically competitive by applying the national GOP formula of electorally driven culture-war stances and pro-business policy to a more left-wing electorate. Last stated 3 weeks ago
2 Oct 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-10-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A new poll in a single state such as Michigan or Maine pretty much affects that state's race and that state only. — tap to centre the map on it A new poll in a single state such as Michigan or Maine pretty much affects that state's race and that state only. Last stated 2 months ago
3 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Across nine election years since 2008, polls were biased against Democrats once, against Republicans four times, and basically unbiased four times. — tap to centre the map on it Across nine election years since 2008, polls were biased against Democrats once, against Republicans four times, and basically unbiased four times. Last stated 3 weeks ago
3 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Cautious expert race ratings, like Cook's, are misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterms under unpopular presidents. — tap to centre the map on it Cautious expert race ratings, like Cook's, are misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterms under unpopular presidents. Last stated a month ago
20 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Midterm races in the modern era tend not to change much between Labor Day and Election Day. — tap to centre the map on it Midterm races in the modern era tend not to change much between Labor Day and Election Day. Last stated 2 months ago
3 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. — tap to centre the map on it A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. Last stated 4 months ago
9 Jun 2026
SP
Sarah Paine — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. Last stated a year ago
15 May 2025
HR
Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country's scientific trajectory can keep advancing even if political instability or economic uncertainty slows its broader progress. — tap to centre the map on it A country's scientific trajectory can keep advancing even if political instability or economic uncertainty slows its broader progress. Last stated 7 months ago
21 Mar 2026
TG
Tanner Greer — holds since 2026-03-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. Last stated a month ago
22 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A broken criminal justice institution survives precisely because it serves the people who run it. — tap to centre the map on it A broken criminal justice institution survives precisely because it serves the people who run it. Last stated 2 months ago
1 Sept 2026
RB
Radley Balko — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A competent, empowered civil service that performs crucial government functions with in-house expertise is good. — tap to centre the map on it A competent, empowered civil service that performs crucial government functions with in-house expertise is good. Last stated a month ago
18 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: 'As long as it takes' lacks urgency, and it is a formula available to Ukraine's allies precisely because they are not the ones doing the fighting. — tap to centre the map on it 'As long as it takes' lacks urgency, and it is a formula available to Ukraine's allies precisely because they are not the ones doing the fighting. Last stated a year ago
10 Oct 2025
LF
Lawrence Freedman — holds since 2025-10-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: 9/11 and Osama bin Laden's actions fundamentally shaped the world we live in today. — tap to centre the map on it 9/11 and Osama bin Laden's actions fundamentally shaped the world we live in today. Last stated a month ago
11 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A ceasefire along the current lines would end the killing and still leave a long-term settlement between Russia and Ukraine possible. — tap to centre the map on it A ceasefire along the current lines would end the killing and still leave a long-term settlement between Russia and Ukraine possible. Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
BM
Branko Milanovic — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Don't bet on Democratic Senate candidates' polling in bluer states changing dramatically in the final days leading up to the election.
Holds Read this korrent →
Democratic polling overperformance has generally been strongest in the central U.S., in rural, agricultural, and energy-producing states.
Holds
Blue-state Republicans could be sporadically competitive by applying the national GOP formula of electorally driven culture-war stances and pro-business policy to a more left-wing electorate.
Holds
A new poll in a single state such as Michigan or Maine pretty much affects that state's race and that state only.
Holds
Across nine election years since 2008, polls were biased against Democrats once, against Republicans four times, and basically unbiased four times.
Holds
Cautious expert race ratings, like Cook's, are misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterms under unpopular presidents.
Holds
Midterm races in the modern era tend not to change much between Labor Day and Election Day.
Holds
A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for.
Holds
A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it.
Holds
A country's scientific trajectory can keep advancing even if political instability or economic uncertainty slows its broader progress.
Holds
A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.
Holds
A broken criminal justice institution survives precisely because it serves the people who run it.
Holds
A competent, empowered civil service that performs crucial government functions with in-house expertise is good.
Holds
'As long as it takes' lacks urgency, and it is a formula available to Ukraine's allies precisely because they are not the ones doing the fighting.
Holds
9/11 and Osama bin Laden's actions fundamentally shaped the world we live in today.
Holds
A ceasefire along the current lines would end the killing and still leave a long-term settlement between Russia and Ukraine possible.
Holds