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← Polling bias is basically random from cycle to cycle.
17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 9 Aug 2022 to 5 Nov 2026.
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democracy
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politics
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behavioural science
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attitude change Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Polling bias is basically random from cycle to cycle. Polling bias is basically random from cycle to cycle. Last stated today
5 Nov 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-11-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The direction of polling bias is unpredictable — tap to centre the map on it The direction of polling bias is unpredictable Last stated yesterday
4 Nov 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-11-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Polls may be biased in either direction — tap to centre the map on it Polls may be biased in either direction Last stated a month ago
3 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The direction of polling error is hard to predict because pollsters are trying to correct for past errors. — tap to centre the map on it The direction of polling error is hard to predict because pollsters are trying to correct for past errors. Last stated 6 days ago
30 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Across nine election years since 2008, polls were biased against Democrats once, against Republicans four times, and basically unbiased four times. — tap to centre the map on it Across nine election years since 2008, polls were biased against Democrats once, against Republicans four times, and basically unbiased four times. Last stated a month ago
3 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: State-by-state polling errors are correlated in midterms but not as much as in presidential years. — tap to centre the map on it State-by-state polling errors are correlated in midterms but not as much as in presidential years. Last stated 2 days ago
3 Nov 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-11-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Small polling errors can produce large electoral effects. — tap to centre the map on it Small polling errors can produce large electoral effects. Last stated a month ago
23 Sept 2026
JM
Josh Marshall — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight. — tap to centre the map on it Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Decision-bias research is itself biased, studying only how heuristics fail and never the strength they supply. — tap to centre the map on it Decision-bias research is itself biased, studying only how heuristics fail and never the strength they supply. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: 8Cr13MoV is no longer an acceptable steel for a knife, because the brands that built their name on it have moved on. — tap to centre the map on it 8Cr13MoV is no longer an acceptable steel for a knife, because the brands that built their name on it have moved on. Last stated a month ago
27 Sept 2026
AS
Anthony Sculimbrene — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. — tap to centre the map on it A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. Last stated 5 months ago
9 Jun 2026
SP
Sarah Paine — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. Last stated a year ago
15 May 2025
HR
Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A ban on AI is unlikely. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on AI is unlikely. Last stated 4 months ago
18 Jul 2026
JH
John Horgan — holds since 2026-07-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. Last stated a month ago
22 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A border wall through Big Bend would be a monument to corruption that makes no one safer. — tap to centre the map on it A border wall through Big Bend would be a monument to corruption that makes no one safer. Last stated 4 months ago
13 Jul 2026
JT
James Talarico — holds since 2026-07-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A ballot law unfair to either race injures whites more lastingly than Black citizens — tap to centre the map on it A ballot law unfair to either race injures whites more lastingly than Black citizens
BW
Booker T. Washington — holds since c. 1899 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company can run on truth only if its leader deeply desires it and rules with a firm hand rather than by democracy. — tap to centre the map on it A company can run on truth only if its leader deeply desires it and rules with a firm hand rather than by democracy. Last stated 2 years ago
6 Mar 2025
KG
Kapil Gupta — holds since 2025-03-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company is not a democracy: every voice should be heard and then one person decides, and the decision should not be the popular one. — tap to centre the map on it A company is not a democracy: every voice should be heard and then one person decides, and the decision should not be the popular one. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are