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← The direction of polling bias is unpredictable

17 connected korrents · 16 moments from 1 Apr 2002 to 4 Nov 2026.

Everything filed under attitude change attitude change Everything filed under behavioural science behavioural science Everything filed under climate change climate change Everything filed under politics politics Everything filed under optimism optimism Everything filed under network science network science Everything filed under Psychotherapy Psychotherapy Everything filed under AGI AGI Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: The direction of polling bias is unpredictable The direction of polling bias isunpredictable Last stated yesterday 4 Nov 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-11-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: The direction of polling error is hard to predict because pollsters are trying to correct for past errors. — tap to centre the map on it The direction of polling error ishard to predict because pollstersare trying to correct for pasterrors. Last stated 6 days ago 30 Oct 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: Polls may be biased in either direction — tap to centre the map on it Polls may be biased in eitherdirection Last stated a month ago 3 Oct 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: Debiasing has largely failed, and that is fine, because the biases identified are experience-built heuristics that only look like biases in hindsight. — tap to centre the map on it Debiasing has largely failed, andthat is fine, because the biasesidentified are experience-builtheuristics that only look likebiases in hindsight. Last stated 4 years ago 9 Aug 2022 GK Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: Decision-bias research is itself biased, studying only how heuristics fail and never the strength they supply. — tap to centre the map on it Decision-bias research is itselfbiased, studying only how heuristicsfail and never the strength theysupply. Last stated 4 years ago 9 Aug 2022 GK Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side. — tap to centre the map on it Far more probability estimates erron the over-optimistic side than theunder-optimistic side. Last stated 8 years ago 14 May 2018 SP Shane Parrish — holds since 2018-05-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: People voting yes deeply misunderstand the power of network effects — tap to centre the map on it People voting yes deeplymisunderstand the power of networkeffects Last stated 3 weeks ago 15 Oct 2026 DM Dillon Mulroy — holds since 2026-10-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: The robustness of apparent biases about economics suggests that the judgemental anomaly is real. — tap to centre the map on it The robustness of apparent biasesabout economics suggests that thejudgemental anomaly is real. Last stated 25 years ago 1 Apr 2002 BC Bryan Caplan — holds since 2002-04-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: Polling persists because it is therapeutic, profitable, and a source of material for manipulating public perception. — tap to centre the map on it Polling persists because it istherapeutic, profitable, and asource of material for manipulatingpublic perception. Last stated 2 months ago 21 Aug 2026 RP Rick Perlstein — holds since 2026-08-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: Accurately informing people about the climate crisis increases their desire to act. — tap to centre the map on it Accurately informing people aboutthe climate crisis increases theirdesire to act. Last stated 4 weeks ago 9 Oct 2026 BM Bill McKibben — holds since 2026-10-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: AI is not the cause of the breakdown of honor codes but an accelerant of a culture shift already under way. — tap to centre the map on it AI is not the cause of the breakdownof honor codes but an accelerant ofa culture shift already under way. Last stated 6 months ago 16 May 2026 AR Asha Rangappa — holds since 2026-05-16 — tap for who they are Same subject: Anti-intellectualism is usually ambivalence; pure dislike of intellect is uncommon — tap to centre the map on it Anti-intellectualism is usuallyambivalence; pure dislike ofintellect is uncommon RH Richard Hofstadter — holds since c. 1963 — tap for who they are Same subject: Decades of warnings about an AI apocalypse do not justify much concern today. — tap to centre the map on it Decades of warnings about an AIapocalypse do not justify muchconcern today. Last stated 2 months ago 12 Sept 2026 PF Paul Ford — holds since 2026-09-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: The attitude that most humans are basically trash will not last far beyond 2026 — tap to centre the map on it The attitude that most humans arebasically trash will not last farbeyond 2026 Last stated 3 weeks ago 17 Oct 2026 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2026-10-17 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supplychain should just buy the index —which works only in the world whereAI ends up commoditised rather thanconcentrated. Last stated 5 months ago 4 Jun 2026 AI Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are Same subject: The gas industry has conducted a decades-long influence campaign to convince the public that methane gas is a clean fuel. — tap to centre the map on it The gas industry has conducted adecades-long influence campaign toconvince the public that methane gasis a clean fuel. Last stated 2 weeks ago 22 Oct 2026 EA Emily Atkin — holds since 2026-10-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: "Carbon intensity" metrics let oil companies claim climate progress even as their total emissions rise from increased production. — tap to centre the map on it "Carbon intensity" metrics let oilcompanies claim climate progresseven as their total emissions risefrom increased production. Last stated 2 months ago 9 Sept 2026 EA Emily Atkin — holds since 2026-09-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: A direct line runs from the Genesis command to subdue the earth to the Industrial Revolution and today's ecological crisis — tap to centre the map on it A direct line runs from the Genesiscommand to subdue the earth to theIndustrial Revolution and today'secological crisis Last stated 4 years ago 18 Oct 2022 YH Yuval Noah Harari — holds since 2022-10-18 — tap for who they are
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At the centre The direction of polling bias is unpredictable Last stated 4 Nov 2026 · yesterday Holds Nate Silver Read this korrent →