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← Weighting and screening cannot fix polls that miss the Republicans who never answer pollsters.

17 connected korrents · 17 moments from 19 Jan 2025 to 30 Oct 2026.

Everything filed under China China Everything filed under government government Everything filed under immigration immigration Everything filed under politics politics Everything filed under behavioural science behavioural science Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Weighting and screening cannot fix polls that miss the Republicans who never answer pollsters. Weighting and screening cannot fix pollsthat miss the Republicans who never answerpollsters. Last stated a week ago 21 Oct 2026 LD Liam Donovan — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: Polls may be biased in either direction — tap to centre the map on it Polls may be biased in eitherdirection Last stated 4 weeks ago 3 Oct 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: The direction of polling error is hard to predict because pollsters are trying to correct for past errors. — tap to centre the map on it The direction of polling error ishard to predict because pollstersare trying to correct for pasterrors. Last stated yesterday 30 Oct 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-30 — tap for who they are Same subject: Willingness to answer a poll is correlated with voting Democratic. — tap to centre the map on it Willingness to answer a poll iscorrelated with voting Democratic. Last stated 2 weeks ago 20 Oct 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: How people feel about an economy is what actually matters, and no set of statistics will persuade someone who feels they are losing that they are winning. — tap to centre the map on it How people feel about an economy iswhat actually matters, and no set ofstatistics will persuade someone whofeels they are losing that they arewinning. Last stated 2 years ago 19 Jan 2025 JB Jennifer Burns — holds since 2025-01-19 — tap for who they are Same subject: It would take a massive October surprise or a bigger-than-2016 polling error to save the Republican majority in the House, despite Republicans’ aggressive redistricting. — tap to centre the map on it It would take a massive Octobersurprise or a bigger-than-2016polling error to save the Republicanmajority in the House, despiteRepublicans’ aggressiveredistricting. Last stated 3 weeks ago 13 Oct 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: Across nine election years since 2008, polls were biased against Democrats once, against Republicans four times, and basically unbiased four times. — tap to centre the map on it Across nine election years since2008, polls were biased againstDemocrats once, against Republicansfour times, and basically unbiasedfour times. Last stated 4 weeks ago 3 Oct 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are Same subject: It would take a polling error of epic proportions for Democrats to fail to pick up the House chamber. — tap to centre the map on it It would take a polling error ofepic proportions for Democrats tofail to pick up the House chamber. Last stated 6 days ago 25 Oct 2026 NS Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-25 — tap for who they are Same subject: Corruption is becoming a serious problem for the Republican Party. — tap to centre the map on it Corruption is becoming a seriousproblem for the Republican Party. Last stated 4 weeks ago 5 Oct 2026 PK Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-10-05 — tap for who they are Same subject: A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. — tap to centre the map on it A continental army's first missionis to keep the regime in power, notto defend the border — which is whatthe People's Liberation Army is for. Last stated 5 months ago 9 Jun 2026 SP Sarah Paine — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot fund its ownindustrial strategy and call thesame policy cheating when China doesit. Last stated a year ago 15 May 2025 HR Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country's scientific trajectory can keep advancing even if political instability or economic uncertainty slows its broader progress. — tap to centre the map on it A country's scientific trajectorycan keep advancing even if politicalinstability or economic uncertaintyslows its broader progress. Last stated 7 months ago 21 Mar 2026 TG Tanner Greer — holds since 2026-03-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on self-recursive improvementin AI models would create a bigincentive for some other parts ofthe world to invest a lot more incompute. Last stated a month ago 22 Sept 2026 TC Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: A broken criminal justice institution survives precisely because it serves the people who run it. — tap to centre the map on it A broken criminal justiceinstitution survives preciselybecause it serves the people who runit. Last stated 2 months ago 1 Sept 2026 RB Radley Balko — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A competent, empowered civil service that performs crucial government functions with in-house expertise is good. — tap to centre the map on it A competent, empowered civil servicethat performs crucial governmentfunctions with in-house expertise isgood. Last stated a month ago 18 Sept 2026 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: A career path becomes popular when it offers clear, prescribed rules that can simply be decoded and followed. — tap to centre the map on it A career path becomes popular whenit offers clear, prescribed rulesthat can simply be decoded andfollowed. Last stated 7 months ago 28 Mar 2026 PM Paul Millerd — holds since 2026-03-28 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country benefits from immigration in proportion to whether the people arriving are net contributors who assimilate. — tap to centre the map on it A country benefits from immigrationin proportion to whether the peoplearriving are net contributors whoassimilate. Last stated 2 months ago 26 Aug 2026 DH David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are Same subject: A multi-ethnic nation cannot survive as a salad bowl in which each group keeps its distinctiveness indefinitely. — tap to centre the map on it A multi-ethnic nation cannot surviveas a salad bowl in which each groupkeeps its distinctivenessindefinitely. Last stated 7 months ago 9 Apr 2026 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2026-04-09 — tap for who they are
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At the centre Weighting and screening cannot fix polls that miss the Republicans who never answer pollsters. Last stated 21 Oct 2026 · a week ago Holds Liam Donovan Read this korrent →