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← People systematically overestimate how much any single economic shock affects the macroeconomy.
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 4 Jun 2020 to 15 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under behavioural science
behavioural science
Everything filed under inflation
inflation
Everything filed under interest rates
interest rates
Everything filed under demographics
demographics
Everything filed under public debt
public debt
Everything filed under AI and jobs
AI and jobs Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: People systematically overestimate how much any single economic shock affects the macroeconomy. People systematically overestimate how much any single economic shock affects the macroeconomy. Last stated a month ago
18 Sept 2026
SS
Scott Sumner — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: There is a significant risk that successive inflation shocks will become entrenched in expectations, necessitating a recession to reduce inflation. — tap to centre the map on it There is a significant risk that successive inflation shocks will become entrenched in expectations, necessitating a recession to reduce inflation. Last stated a week ago
15 Oct 2026
PK
Paul Krugman — holds since 2026-10-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A mass death does not by itself produce a boom afterwards: expecting a pandemic to renew an economy on its own misreads what followed the Black Death. — tap to centre the map on it A mass death does not by itself produce a boom afterwards: expecting a pandemic to renew an economy on its own misreads what followed the Black Death. Last stated 6 years ago
4 Jun 2020
AP
Ada Palmer — holds since 2020-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Handing out cheques during Covid and accepting the inflation was less damaging than price controls and rationing would have been. — tap to centre the map on it Handing out cheques during Covid and accepting the inflation was less damaging than price controls and rationing would have been. Last stated 2 years ago
20 Aug 2024
JC
John H. Cochrane — holds since 2024-08-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: How people feel about an economy is what actually matters, and no set of statistics will persuade someone who feels they are losing that they are winning. — tap to centre the map on it How people feel about an economy is what actually matters, and no set of statistics will persuade someone who feels they are losing that they are winning. Last stated 2 years ago
19 Jan 2025
JB
Jennifer Burns — holds since 2025-01-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The software job losses of the past few years were caused more by the end of zero-interest-rate money and the post-COVID crash than by AI. — tap to centre the map on it The software job losses of the past few years were caused more by the end of zero-interest-rate money and the post-COVID crash than by AI. Last stated 3 months ago
29 Jul 2026
HW
Hillel Wayne — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Government borrowing through the financial crisis and the pandemic was a good trade, because it repaired household balance sheets. — tap to centre the map on it Government borrowing through the financial crisis and the pandemic was a good trade, because it repaired household balance sheets. Last stated 2 months ago
28 Aug 2026
BC
Ben Carlson — holds since 2026-08-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Tech people tend to overestimate the risk of mass job loss from AI. — tap to centre the map on it Tech people tend to overestimate the risk of mass job loss from AI. Last stated 4 weeks ago
23 Sept 2026
SS
Scott Sumner — holds since 2026-09-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The decades-long decline in real interest rates across major economies was not caused by the Global Financial Crisis or the Covid crisis. — tap to centre the map on it The decades-long decline in real interest rates across major economies was not caused by the Global Financial Crisis or the Covid crisis. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A belief system combining cosmic stakes, privileged knowledge, personal vocation and an imperative to act can license extraordinary behavior when it conflicts with ordinary constraints. — tap to centre the map on it A belief system combining cosmic stakes, privileged knowledge, personal vocation and an imperative to act can license extraordinary behavior when it conflicts with ordinary constraints. Last stated a month ago
17 Sept 2026
VR
Venkatesh Rao — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. — tap to centre the map on it A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. Last stated 9 months ago
25 Jan 2026
JC
Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. — tap to centre the map on it A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Blaming and shaming people only makes them defensive, dig in their heels, or tune out, rather than change their minds. — tap to centre the map on it Blaming and shaming people only makes them defensive, dig in their heels, or tune out, rather than change their minds. Last stated 4 months ago
9 Jun 2026
AG
Adam Grant — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Imaginary social trends can spuriously shape people's real beliefs and behaviors. — tap to centre the map on it Imaginary social trends can spuriously shape people's real beliefs and behaviors. Last stated 5 years ago
7 Mar 2022
AM
Adam Mastroianni — holds since 2022-03-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Public scrutiny of a new technology tends to jump only after a deadly incident, otherwise rising slowly over decades — tap to centre the map on it Public scrutiny of a new technology tends to jump only after a deadly incident, otherwise rising slowly over decades Last stated 9 months ago
15 Jan 2026
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2026-01-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A product that speeds up turning intention into reality increases appetite for continued use, then charges for that continuation. — tap to centre the map on it A product that speeds up turning intention into reality increases appetite for continued use, then charges for that continuation. Last stated 2 months ago
19 Aug 2026
KR
Kenneth Reitz — holds since 2026-08-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A small amount of friction is enough to reshape a behavior, because most wants are not strong enough to survive a minor inconvenience. — tap to centre the map on it A small amount of friction is enough to reshape a behavior, because most wants are not strong enough to survive a minor inconvenience. Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JC
James Clear — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A society cannot remove the desire for status, only change what earns it. — tap to centre the map on it A society cannot remove the desire for status, only change what earns it. Last stated 2 months ago
6 Sept 2026
RH
Rob Henderson — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
At the centre
People systematically overestimate how much any single economic shock affects the macroeconomy.
Holds Read this korrent →
There is a significant risk that successive inflation shocks will become entrenched in expectations, necessitating a recession to reduce inflation.
Holds
A mass death does not by itself produce a boom afterwards: expecting a pandemic to renew an economy on its own misreads what followed the Black Death.
Holds
Handing out cheques during Covid and accepting the inflation was less damaging than price controls and rationing would have been.
Holds
How people feel about an economy is what actually matters, and no set of statistics will persuade someone who feels they are losing that they are winning.
Holds
The software job losses of the past few years were caused more by the end of zero-interest-rate money and the post-COVID crash than by AI.
Holds
Government borrowing through the financial crisis and the pandemic was a good trade, because it repaired household balance sheets.
Holds
Tech people tend to overestimate the risk of mass job loss from AI.
Holds
The decades-long decline in real interest rates across major economies was not caused by the Global Financial Crisis or the Covid crisis.
Holds
A belief system combining cosmic stakes, privileged knowledge, personal vocation and an imperative to act can license extraordinary behavior when it conflicts with ordinary constraints.
Holds
A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally.
Holds
A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck.
Holds
Blaming and shaming people only makes them defensive, dig in their heels, or tune out, rather than change their minds.
Holds
Imaginary social trends can spuriously shape people's real beliefs and behaviors.
Holds
Public scrutiny of a new technology tends to jump only after a deadly incident, otherwise rising slowly over decades
Holds
A product that speeds up turning intention into reality increases appetite for continued use, then charges for that continuation.
Holds
A small amount of friction is enough to reshape a behavior, because most wants are not strong enough to survive a minor inconvenience.
Holds
A society cannot remove the desire for status, only change what earns it.
Holds