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← People often over-index on the specifics of a pathogen when evaluating…
17 connected korrents · 14 moments from 19 Aug 2004 to 21 Oct 2026.
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venture capital Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: People often over-index on the specifics of a pathogen when evaluating a new disease risk rather than considering the wider context in which it is emerging. People often over-index on the specifics of a pathogen when evaluating a new disease risk rather than considering the wider context in which it is emerging. Last stated 3 days ago
21 Oct 2026
AK
Adam Kucharski — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Being obsessive about specific, short-term risks often sits in opposition to worrying about fuzzy, long-term risks — tap to centre the map on it Being obsessive about specific, short-term risks often sits in opposition to worrying about fuzzy, long-term risks Last stated 3 years ago
20 Jul 2023
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2023-07-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A rising share of statistically insignificant experiments is the signal that a team has exploited an area too far and should go back to exploring. — tap to centre the map on it A rising share of statistically insignificant experiments is the signal that a team has exploited an area too far and should go back to exploring. Last stated a year ago
5 Oct 2025
AC
Albert Cheng — holds since 2025-10-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: People generally underestimate serious natural threats such as pandemics and climate change. — tap to centre the map on it People generally underestimate serious natural threats such as pandemics and climate change. Last stated 2 months ago
25 Aug 2026
AA
Anne Applebaum — holds since 2026-08-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: It is human nature to overinterpret evidence, and the hardest part of science is not doing so. — tap to centre the map on it It is human nature to overinterpret evidence, and the hardest part of science is not doing so. Last stated 11 months ago
30 Nov 2025
GT
Gary Taubes — holds since 2025-11-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: With any new subject people tend first to overrate it, then by reaction to undervalue it — tap to centre the map on it With any new subject people tend first to overrate it, then by reaction to undervalue it
AL
Ada Lovelace — holds since c. 1843 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A single risk-adjusted summary of a surgeon's results risks giving spurious credibility to analyses that ignore non-patient influences. — tap to centre the map on it A single risk-adjusted summary of a surgeon's results risks giving spurious credibility to analyses that ignore non-patient influences. Last stated 22 years ago
19 Aug 2004
DS
David Spiegelhalter — holds since 2004-08-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: In an age of abundant information, a person's judgment, taste and perspective are their primary value as a writer. — tap to centre the map on it In an age of abundant information, a person's judgment, taste and perspective are their primary value as a writer. Last stated 2 months ago
8 Sept 2026
AH
Ann Handley — holds since 2026-09-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The p(abundance) outlook is far more likely than the heavily covered p(doom) discussion and deserves more engagement. — tap to centre the map on it The p(abundance) outlook is far more likely than the heavily covered p(doom) discussion and deserves more engagement. Last stated a month ago
14 Sept 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-09-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: “Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now. — tap to centre the map on it “Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now. Last stated 3 months ago
28 Jul 2026
BS
Blake Scholl — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero. — tap to centre the map on it A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero. Last stated 3 months ago
28 Jul 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-07-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use. — tap to centre the map on it A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
JJ
Justin Jackson — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. — tap to centre the map on it A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit. Last stated 4 months ago
14 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. — tap to centre the map on it A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out. — tap to centre the map on it About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out. Last stated 3 months ago
18 Jul 2026
PL
Pieter Levels — holds since 2026-07-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. — tap to centre the map on it A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. Last stated 10 months ago
9 Dec 2025
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at. — tap to centre the map on it A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at. Last stated 5 months ago
2 Jun 2026
MP
Mark Pincus — holds since 2026-06-02 — tap for who they are
At the centre
People often over-index on the specifics of a pathogen when evaluating a new disease risk rather than considering the wider context in which it is emerging.
Holds Read this korrent →
Being obsessive about specific, short-term risks often sits in opposition to worrying about fuzzy, long-term risks
Holds
A rising share of statistically insignificant experiments is the signal that a team has exploited an area too far and should go back to exploring.
Holds
People generally underestimate serious natural threats such as pandemics and climate change.
Holds
It is human nature to overinterpret evidence, and the hardest part of science is not doing so.
Holds
With any new subject people tend first to overrate it, then by reaction to undervalue it
Last stated c. 1843
Holds
A single risk-adjusted summary of a surgeon's results risks giving spurious credibility to analyses that ignore non-patient influences.
Holds
In an age of abundant information, a person's judgment, taste and perspective are their primary value as a writer.
Holds
The p(abundance) outlook is far more likely than the heavily covered p(doom) discussion and deserves more engagement.
Holds
“Why now?” is the wrong question to make a founder answer — the honest answer can simply be that you started now.
Holds
A belief nobody else shares is a warning, and a belief everybody shares is also a warning; the right number of people who agree with you is small but not zero.
Holds
A business can have market fit, real advantages, and sustained effort behind a hard product and still fail if it doesn't give customers a strong enough reason to switch from what they already use.
Holds
A first-time founder has an advantage over a repeat winner, because past success makes it too easy to raise money and hire against a big vision before there is product-market fit.
Holds
A founder should take half the valuation if it buys all of the control, because the right to be wrong in your own way is what founding was for.
Holds
About 5% is the most common final ownership stake for the founder of a VC-funded startup that works out.
Holds
A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now.
Holds
A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate.
Holds
A founder who does not know their own goal dies by a thousand compromises and ends up running a company they do not want to work at.
Holds