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← If a lab is off by a single year in its revenue forecast, no hedge on…
17 connected korrents · 18 moments from 11 Oct 2018 to 15 Oct 2026.
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semiconductors Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: If a lab is off by a single year in its revenue forecast, no hedge on Earth stops the compute it already bought from bankrupting it. If a lab is off by a single year in its revenue forecast, no hedge on Earth stops the compute it already bought from bankrupting it. Last stated 8 months ago
13 Feb 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-02-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even a long-horizon deep tech company should chase revenue sooner than it thinks, so that it is valued on its roadmap rather than on its probability of dying. — tap to centre the map on it Even a long-horizon deep tech company should chase revenue sooner than it thinks, so that it is valued on its roadmap rather than on its probability of dying. Last stated 3 months ago
7 Aug 2026
MH
Max Hodak — holds since 2026-08-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Nvidia's real miss was not seeing that a frontier lab could never be funded by venture capital, so its compute suppliers had to become its investors. — tap to centre the map on it Nvidia's real miss was not seeing that a frontier lab could never be funded by venture capital, so its compute suppliers had to become its investors. Last stated 6 months ago
15 Apr 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-04-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Compute is not a market like phones, where demand is capped by how many buyers there are; intelligence is priced like energy, so the only real question is how much the world uses at a given price. — tap to centre the map on it Compute is not a market like phones, where demand is capped by how many buyers there are; intelligence is priced like energy, so the only real question is how much the world uses at a given price. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company priced in the trillions is not thereby overpriced; the test is what revenues and margins that price actually requires. — tap to centre the map on it A company priced in the trillions is not thereby overpriced; the test is what revenues and margins that price actually requires. Last stated 11 months ago
3 Dec 2025
AD
Aswath Damodaran — holds since 2025-12-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Compute will be the currency of the future and the most precious commodity in the world, so we should be investing heavily to make far more of it. — tap to centre the map on it Compute will be the currency of the future and the most precious commodity in the world, so we should be investing heavily to make far more of it. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Increased borrowing by hyperscalers creates a financial danger where they might default on debt if revenue does not arrive. — tap to centre the map on it Increased borrowing by hyperscalers creates a financial danger where they might default on debt if revenue does not arrive. Last stated a week ago
15 Oct 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-10-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An AI-caused recession requires the owners of capital to hit a hard ceiling on spending and then refuse to invest the rest, which is a very improbable combination. — tap to centre the map on it An AI-caused recession requires the owners of capital to hit a hard ceiling on spending and then refuse to invest the rest, which is a very improbable combination. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: NVIDIA can be a three-trillion-dollar-revenue company in the near future, because nothing physical stands in the way. — tap to centre the map on it NVIDIA can be a three-trillion-dollar-revenue company in the near future, because nothing physical stands in the way. Last stated 7 months ago
23 Mar 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-03-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI. Last stated 10 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JL
Jason Lemkin — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. — tap to centre the map on it A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to. Last stated 3 months ago
15 Jul 2026
DH
Dex Horthy — holds since 2026-07-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. — tap to centre the map on it A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls. Last stated a month ago
17 Sept 2026
PC
Patrick Collison — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. Last stated 8 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI should be released iteratively rather than built in secret, because AI and surprise do not go together and the world needs time to adapt before it is under the gun. — tap to centre the map on it AI should be released iteratively rather than built in secret, because AI and surprise do not go together and the world needs time to adapt before it is under the gun. Last stated 3 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An AI can already earn an A on a university economics midterm, years earlier than informed forecasters expected. — tap to centre the map on it An AI can already earn an A on a university economics midterm, years earlier than informed forecasters expected. Last stated 4 years ago
21 Mar 2023
BC
Bryan Caplan — holds since 2023-03-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: As models keep growing, AI is running out of enough high-quality unique training tokens to keep up. — tap to centre the map on it As models keep growing, AI is running out of enough high-quality unique training tokens to keep up. Last stated 4 months ago
24 Jun 2026
LW
Lilian Weng — holds since 2026-06-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Current techniques restrict pre-trained representation power because standard language models are unidirectional. — tap to centre the map on it Current techniques restrict pre-trained representation power because standard language models are unidirectional. Last stated 8 years ago
11 Oct 2018
KT
Kristina Toutanova — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are
MC
Ming-Wei Chang — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are
KL
Kenton Lee — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are
JD
Jacob Devlin — holds since 2018-10-11 — tap for who they are
At the centre
If a lab is off by a single year in its revenue forecast, no hedge on Earth stops the compute it already bought from bankrupting it.
Holds Read this korrent →
Even a long-horizon deep tech company should chase revenue sooner than it thinks, so that it is valued on its roadmap rather than on its probability of dying.
Holds
Nvidia's real miss was not seeing that a frontier lab could never be funded by venture capital, so its compute suppliers had to become its investors.
Holds
Compute is not a market like phones, where demand is capped by how many buyers there are; intelligence is priced like energy, so the only real question is how much the world uses at a given price.
Holds
A company priced in the trillions is not thereby overpriced; the test is what revenues and margins that price actually requires.
Holds
Compute will be the currency of the future and the most precious commodity in the world, so we should be investing heavily to make far more of it.
Holds
Increased borrowing by hyperscalers creates a financial danger where they might default on debt if revenue does not arrive.
Holds
An AI-caused recession requires the owners of capital to hit a hard ceiling on spending and then refuse to invest the rest, which is a very improbable combination.
Holds
NVIDIA can be a three-trillion-dollar-revenue company in the near future, because nothing physical stands in the way.
Holds
A badly written AI outbound email is evidence of a bad vendor, not of a limit of AI.
Holds
A bigger context window does not give you a smarter model; the intelligence of the model is what decides how much of that window it can actually attend to.
Holds
A body of publications is easy for AI models to consume via pretraining corpora but cumbersome for most humans due to CAPTCHAs, accounts, and paywalls.
Holds
A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact.
Holds
AI should be released iteratively rather than built in secret, because AI and surprise do not go together and the world needs time to adapt before it is under the gun.
Holds
An AI can already earn an A on a university economics midterm, years earlier than informed forecasters expected.
Holds
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
Holds
As models keep growing, AI is running out of enough high-quality unique training tokens to keep up.
Holds
Current techniques restrict pre-trained representation power because standard language models are unidirectional.
Holds