Tap a claim on the ring to put it at the centre.
← Empirical knowledge of rare events’ role is inversely proportional to their impact
10 connected korrents · 11 moments from 14 Sept 2008 to 17 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under behavioural science
behavioural science
Everything filed under motivation
motivation
Everything filed under attitude change
attitude change Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Empirical knowledge of rare events’ role is inversely proportional to their impact Empirical knowledge of rare events’ role is inversely proportional to their impact Last stated 18 years ago
14 Sept 2008
NT
Nassim Nicholas Taleb — holds since 2008-09-14 — tap for who they are
Same subject: In risk management, severe but low-probability outcomes should shape policy responses, not just the likeliest scenario. — tap to centre the map on it In risk management, severe but low-probability outcomes should shape policy responses, not just the likeliest scenario. Last stated 4 weeks ago
4 Sept 2026
AD
Andrew Dessler — holds since 2026-09-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A belief system combining cosmic stakes, privileged knowledge, personal vocation and an imperative to act can license extraordinary behavior when it conflicts with ordinary constraints. — tap to centre the map on it A belief system combining cosmic stakes, privileged knowledge, personal vocation and an imperative to act can license extraordinary behavior when it conflicts with ordinary constraints. Last stated 2 weeks ago
17 Sept 2026
VR
Venkatesh Rao — holds since 2026-09-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. — tap to centre the map on it A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally. Last stated 8 months ago
25 Jan 2026
JC
Jason Cohen — holds since 2026-01-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. — tap to centre the map on it A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Blaming and shaming people only makes them defensive, dig in their heels, or tune out, rather than change their minds. — tap to centre the map on it Blaming and shaming people only makes them defensive, dig in their heels, or tune out, rather than change their minds. Last stated 4 months ago
9 Jun 2026
AG
Adam Grant — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Decades of warnings about an AI apocalypse do not justify much concern today. — tap to centre the map on it Decades of warnings about an AI apocalypse do not justify much concern today. Last stated 3 weeks ago
12 Sept 2026
PF
Paul Ford — holds since 2026-09-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Deliberately shifting a culture is far harder now that everyone can personalise their media and skip past anything they dislike. — tap to centre the map on it Deliberately shifting a culture is far harder now that everyone can personalise their media and skip past anything they dislike. Last stated a year ago
1 Jul 2025
AE
Alice Evans — holds since 2025-07-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A drop in agency is the earliest sign of burnout, arriving before you consciously notice you are burning out. — tap to centre the map on it A drop in agency is the earliest sign of burnout, arriving before you consciously notice you are burning out. Last stated 3 years ago
10 Jan 2024
CH
Cate Hall — holds since 2024-01-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder who picks an idea because the market wants it will give up, because nobody can persist at something that was never important to them. — tap to centre the map on it A founder who picks an idea because the market wants it will give up, because nobody can persist at something that was never important to them. Last stated 2 years ago
19 Jun 2024
AS
Aravind Srinivas — holds since 2024-06-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A habit only survives difficulty if the person enjoys it, which makes enjoyment a better predictor of persistence than discipline. — tap to centre the map on it A habit only survives difficulty if the person enjoys it, which makes enjoyment a better predictor of persistence than discipline. Last stated 9 months ago
1 Jan 2026
JC
James Clear — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Empirical knowledge of rare events’ role is inversely proportional to their impact
Holds Read this korrent →
In risk management, severe but low-probability outcomes should shape policy responses, not just the likeliest scenario.
Holds
A belief system combining cosmic stakes, privileged knowledge, personal vocation and an imperative to act can license extraordinary behavior when it conflicts with ordinary constraints.
Holds
A cancellation-reason drop-down measures list order rather than reasons: randomise the options and every one of them gets picked equally.
Holds
A decision cannot be judged by its outcome, because good decisions fail through no fault of the decider and bad ones succeed by luck.
Holds
Blaming and shaming people only makes them defensive, dig in their heels, or tune out, rather than change their minds.
Holds
Decades of warnings about an AI apocalypse do not justify much concern today.
Holds
Deliberately shifting a culture is far harder now that everyone can personalise their media and skip past anything they dislike.
Holds
A drop in agency is the earliest sign of burnout, arriving before you consciously notice you are burning out.
Holds
A founder who picks an idea because the market wants it will give up, because nobody can persist at something that was never important to them.
Holds
A habit only survives difficulty if the person enjoys it, which makes enjoyment a better predictor of persistence than discipline.
Holds