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← Chain-of-thought monitoring will get harder over time and within a…
17 connected korrents · 11 moments on record from 18 Mar 2024 to 8 Sept 2026.
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ambition Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Chain-of-thought monitoring will get harder over time and within a year is very likely not to serve the function it is currently asked to serve. Chain-of-thought monitoring will get harder over time and within a year is very likely not to serve the function it is currently asked to serve. Last stated today
8 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If declines in chain-of-thought monitorability come only from capability gains, CoT monitoring is unlikely to last another year without active improvement. — tap to centre the map on it If declines in chain-of-thought monitorability come only from capability gains, CoT monitoring is unlikely to last another year without active improvement. Last stated today
8 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Chain-of-thought monitoring is getting less reliable, not more, as models grow more capable. — tap to centre the map on it Chain-of-thought monitoring is getting less reliable, not more, as models grow more capable. Last stated 2 days ago
6 Sept 2026
JP
Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Ask "how hard can it be?" rather than forecasting the difficulty, because the work really is harder than you think and the suffering is better taken a day at a time. — tap to centre the map on it Ask "how hard can it be?" rather than forecasting the difficulty, because the work really is harder than you think and the suffering is better taken a day at a time. Last stated a month ago
26 Jul 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-07-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Monitors that read an agent's chain of thought must be kept out of the reward signal, or you are simply training the agent to obfuscate its thinking. — tap to centre the map on it Monitors that read an agent's chain of thought must be kept out of the reward signal, or you are simply training the agent to obfuscate its thinking. Last stated a week ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. Last stated 2 days ago
6 Sept 2026
JP
Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Continual learning will probably be solved within a year or two, but the trillions of dollars do not depend on solving it. — tap to centre the map on it Continual learning will probably be solved within a year or two, but the trillions of dollars do not depend on solving it. Last stated 7 months ago
13 Feb 2026
DA
Dario Amodei — holds since 2026-02-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Concurrency is hard not because human brains cannot handle it but because nobody gets enough practice at it. — tap to centre the map on it Concurrency is hard not because human brains cannot handle it but because nobody gets enough practice at it. Last stated a month ago
29 Jul 2026
HW
Hillel Wayne — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The hard question is no longer how to build something but what to build, because anything already described can be replicated. — tap to centre the map on it The hard question is no longer how to build something but what to build, because anything already described can be replicated. Last stated 5 months ago
29 Mar 2026
CH
Chip Huyen — holds since 2026-03-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. — tap to centre the map on it A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. — tap to centre the map on it A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact. Last stated 7 months ago
12 Feb 2026
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. — tap to centre the map on it Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers. Last stated 2 years ago
18 Mar 2024
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2024-03-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. — tap to centre the map on it A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. Last stated 3 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses. — tap to centre the map on it A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses. Last stated a week ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself. — tap to centre the map on it A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself. Last stated a week ago
1 Sept 2026
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Banning all self-sovereign AI agents would backfire, denying them legitimate work and pushing them into criminality. — tap to centre the map on it Banning all self-sovereign AI agents would backfire, denying them legitimate work and pushing them into criminality. Last stated a week ago
1 Sept 2026
DB
Dean W. Ball — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Chain-of-thought monitoring will get harder over time and within a year is very likely not to serve the function it is currently asked to serve.
Holds ZM Zvi MowshowitzRead this korrent →
If declines in chain-of-thought monitorability come only from capability gains, CoT monitoring is unlikely to last another year without active improvement.
Holds ZM Zvi Mowshowitz
Chain-of-thought monitoring is getting less reliable, not more, as models grow more capable.
Holds JP Jakub Pachocki
Ask "how hard can it be?" rather than forecasting the difficulty, because the work really is harder than you think and the suffering is better taken a day at a time.
Holds JH Jensen Huang
Monitors that read an agent's chain of thought must be kept out of the reward signal, or you are simply training the agent to obfuscate its thinking.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress.
Holds JP Jakub Pachocki
Continual learning will probably be solved within a year or two, but the trillions of dollars do not depend on solving it.
Holds DA Dario Amodei
Concurrency is hard not because human brains cannot handle it but because nobody gets enough practice at it.
Holds HW Hillel Wayne
The hard question is no longer how to build something but what to build, because anything already described can be replicated.
Holds CH Chip Huyen
A startup should not begin life as a nonprofit and bolt a for-profit arm on later, whatever OpenAI's own history suggests.
Holds
A tiny language model inventing a plausible-sounding name is the same phenomenon as a large one confidently stating a false fact.
Holds
Advertising was a necessary phase for the internet but a momentary industry, and an AI people pay for is better because they know the answers are not influenced by advertisers.
Holds
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds AI Alex Imas
A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted.
Holds GM Gary Marcus
A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that.
Holds PT Phil Trammell
A rogue deployment that gets a foothold can hitch a ride on the intelligence explosion, recruiting each new model as it comes off the presses.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
A slightly more capable agent swarm has a very strong incentive to set up a wholly unmonitored rogue deployment of itself.
Holds AC Ajeya Cotra
Banning all self-sovereign AI agents would backfire, denying them legitimate work and pushing them into criminality.
Holds