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← If declines in chain-of-thought monitorability come only from…
17 connected korrents · 13 moments from 24 Feb 2018 to 15 Sept 2026.
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product management Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: If declines in chain-of-thought monitorability come only from capability gains, CoT monitoring is unlikely to last another year without active improvement. If declines in chain-of-thought monitorability come only from capability gains, CoT monitoring is unlikely to last another year without active improvement. Last stated a month ago
8 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Even with plausible best efforts, chain-of-thought monitoring will probably get harder over time and within a year very likely will not serve its current function. — tap to centre the map on it Even with plausible best efforts, chain-of-thought monitoring will probably get harder over time and within a year very likely will not serve its current function. Last stated a month ago
8 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Chain-of-thought monitoring is getting less reliable, not more, as models grow more capable. — tap to centre the map on it Chain-of-thought monitoring is getting less reliable, not more, as models grow more capable. Last stated 2 months ago
6 Sept 2026
JP
Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Before building on a gap in the general models, work out whether that gap survives six months or three years. — tap to centre the map on it Before building on a gap in the general models, work out whether that gap survives six months or three years. Last stated 3 months ago
30 Jul 2026
JD
Jeff Dean — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. — tap to centre the map on it Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. Last stated 2 months ago
6 Sept 2026
JP
Jakub Pachocki — holds since 2026-09-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: OpenAI is extremely dependent on chain-of-thought monitoring, other labs rely on it heavily, and it may not last much longer as GPT-6 Astra nears steganographic capability. — tap to centre the map on it OpenAI is extremely dependent on chain-of-thought monitoring, other labs rely on it heavily, and it may not last much longer as GPT-6 Astra nears steganographic capability. Last stated a month ago
10 Sept 2026
ZM
Zvi Mowshowitz — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Delaying the open release of a new capability by months or years is worth doing, even though preventing its spread indefinitely is not. — tap to centre the map on it Delaying the open release of a new capability by months or years is worth doing, even though preventing its spread indefinitely is not. Last stated 2 years ago
5 Apr 2025
HT
Helen Toner — holds since 2025-04-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Most software has too few users or too short a lifespan for long-term maintenance costs to matter. — tap to centre the map on it Most software has too few users or too short a lifespan for long-term maintenance costs to matter. Last stated a year ago
8 Jun 2025
DC
David Crawshaw — holds since 2025-06-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Build where today's models succeed one percent of the time, not twenty: partial success means the capability is already arriving. — tap to centre the map on it Build where today's models succeed one percent of the time, not twenty: partial success means the capability is already arriving. Last stated 3 months ago
30 Jul 2026
JD
Jeff Dean — holds since 2026-07-30 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. — tap to centre the map on it A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
PT
Phil Trammell — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives. — tap to centre the map on it A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives. Last stated 9 years ago
24 Feb 2018
PC
Paul Christiano — holds since 2018-02-24 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel. — tap to centre the map on it A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel. Last stated 3 months ago
3 Aug 2026
DD
Dmitri Dolgov — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. — tap to centre the map on it A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well. Last stated 11 months ago
17 Nov 2025
AK
Andrej Karpathy — holds since 2025-11-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Building a realistic simulator is exactly as hard as building the agent, because the simulator is itself a large AI model. — tap to centre the map on it Building a realistic simulator is exactly as hard as building the agent, because the simulator is itself a large AI model. Last stated 3 months ago
3 Aug 2026
DD
Dmitri Dolgov — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A collection of AI agents does not automatically form a functioning organization any more than a group of smart people does. — tap to centre the map on it A collection of AI agents does not automatically form a functioning organization any more than a group of smart people does. Last stated 5 months ago
21 May 2026
RK
Rohit Krishnan — holds since 2026-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company cannot be led by machines, because nobody would have recourse against them. — tap to centre the map on it A company cannot be led by machines, because nobody would have recourse against them. Last stated a month ago
15 Sept 2026
TL
Tobias Lütke — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A computer-using agent needs a machine of its own, or you will spend the day fighting it for the mouse cursor. — tap to centre the map on it A computer-using agent needs a machine of its own, or you will spend the day fighting it for the mouse cursor. Last stated 2 months ago
10 Aug 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-08-10 — tap for who they are
At the centre
If declines in chain-of-thought monitorability come only from capability gains, CoT monitoring is unlikely to last another year without active improvement.
Holds Read this korrent →
Even with plausible best efforts, chain-of-thought monitoring will probably get harder over time and within a year very likely will not serve its current function.
Holds
Chain-of-thought monitoring is getting less reliable, not more, as models grow more capable.
Holds
Before building on a gap in the general models, work out whether that gap survives six months or three years.
Holds
Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress.
Holds
OpenAI is extremely dependent on chain-of-thought monitoring, other labs rely on it heavily, and it may not last much longer as GPT-6 Astra nears steganographic capability.
Holds
Delaying the open release of a new capability by months or years is worth doing, even though preventing its spread indefinitely is not.
Holds
Most software has too few users or too short a lifespan for long-term maintenance costs to matter.
Holds
Build where today's models succeed one percent of the time, not twenty: partial success means the capability is already arriving.
Holds
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds
A poor country should prioritise owning a piece of AI over retraining its workers, but it should not bet everything on that.
Holds
A slow takeoff is significantly more likely than a fast one: AI that is nearly as powerful will have transformed the world before the incredibly powerful kind arrives.
Holds
A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel.
Holds
A verifiable task can be optimised by reinforcement learning until a neural network performs it extremely well.
Holds
Building a realistic simulator is exactly as hard as building the agent, because the simulator is itself a large AI model.
Holds
A collection of AI agents does not automatically form a functioning organization any more than a group of smart people does.
Holds
A company cannot be led by machines, because nobody would have recourse against them.
Holds
A computer-using agent needs a machine of its own, or you will spend the day fighting it for the mouse cursor.
Holds