If declines in chain-of-thought monitorability come only from capability gains, CoT monitoring is unlikely to last another year without active improvement.

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Our reading — they may agree, disagree or merely touch the same thing. Closest first: a shared subject counts for most, then how near the wording is.

• Chain-of-thought monitoring is getting less reliable, not more, as models grow more capable. JPJakub Pachocki6 Sept 2026similar wording
• Chain-of-thought monitoring will get harder over time and within a year is very likely not to serve the function it is currently asked to serve. ZMZvi Mowshowitz8 Sept 2026similar wording
• Before building on a gap in the general models, work out whether that gap survives six months or three years. JDJeff Dean30 Jul 2026similar wording
• Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. JPJakub Pachocki6 Sept 2026similar wording
• Delaying the open release of a new capability by months or years is worth doing, even though preventing its spread indefinitely is not. HTHelen Toner5 Apr 2025similar wording

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