Chain-of-thought monitoring will get harder over time and within a year is very likely not to serve the function it is currently asked to serve.

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Our reading — they may agree, disagree or merely touch the same thing. Closest first: a shared subject counts for most, then how near the wording is.

• If declines in chain-of-thought monitorability come only from capability gains, CoT monitoring is unlikely to last another year without active improvement. ZMZvi Mowshowitz8 Sept 2026similar wording
• Chain-of-thought monitoring is getting less reliable, not more, as models grow more capable. JPJakub Pachocki6 Sept 2026similar wording
• Ask "how hard can it be?" rather than forecasting the difficulty, because the work really is harder than you think and the suffering is better taken a day at a time. JHJensen Huang26 Jul 2026similar wording
• Monitors that read an agent's chain of thought must be kept out of the reward signal, or you are simply training the agent to obfuscate its thinking. ACAjeya Cotra1 Sept 2026similar wording
• Confidence in monitoring, not capability research, will become the binding constraint on AI progress. JPJakub Pachocki6 Sept 2026similar wording

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