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Do we shrink our way out of the climate problem, or grow our way out?

Top voices on degrowth: Branko Milanovic, Hannah Ritchie, Casey Handmer, John H. Cochrane and 3 others.

All agree emissions must fall; they disagree about whether that means less output or cheaper energy.

16 dated claims from 7 people · 4 views · most recent 3 Sept 2026

The views

Our reading of what a group of claims have in common, one level above a korrent: a korrent is our reading of what somebody said, a view is our reading of what several korrents share. The claims are printed under it, so the sentence can be checked against them.

Nobody is filed under a view — claims are. A person is named here because a dated claim of theirs sits under it, and somebody whose claims sit under two views appears under both.

  1. Shrinking output means somebody stays poor, and the arithmetic says who

    Casey HandmerBranko Milanovic

  2. Cheap energy is what made prosperity and lower impact stop being opposites

    Noah SmithHannah RitchieCasey Handmer

  3. It is an opportunity rather than a law, and it can still be missed

    Hannah RitchieTyler CowenDavid MacKay

  4. Either the lever is a price on the dirty things, or there is no lever

    John H. CochraneCasey HandmerBranko Milanovic

A viewour reading

Shrinking output means somebody stays poor, and the arithmetic says who

4 claims filed here, newest first — each in the words of whoever said it.

The climate policy everyone has quietly assumed is that poorer countries stay poor, and that is the wrong answer.

  1. Casey Handmer Physicist, formerly at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory The default climate discourse in recent years has been congruent to an acceptance that curtailing CO2 emissions would require the regrettable but ultimately impersonal de-industrialization and re-impoverishment of most of the world, which is both morally repugnant and politically impossible to achieve without first use of nuclear weapons. Radical Energy Abundancecaseyhandmer.wordpress.com · 11 Oct 2023All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThe default climate discourse in recent years has been congruent to an acceptance that curtailing CO2 emissions would require the regrettable but ultimately impersonal de-industrialization and re-impoverishment of most of the world, which is both morally repugnant and politically impossible to achieve without first use of nuclear weapons.

    ↗Radical Energy Abundancecaseyhandmer.wordpress.com

    11 Oct 2023

  2. Branko Milanovic Economist specialising in global income inequality From these exchanges I got the impression that they were unaware of just how unequal and poor (yes, poor) the world is today and what would be the trade-offs if we really were to decide to fix the volume of goods and services produced and consumed in the world at the current level. The illusion of “degrowth” in a poor and unequal worldglineq.blogspot.com · 18 Nov 2017All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsFrom these exchanges I got the impression that they were unaware of just how unequal and poor (yes, poor) the world is today and what would be the trade-offs if we really were to decide to fix the volume of goods and services produced and consumed in the world at the current level.

    ↗The illusion of “degrowth” in a poor and unequal worldglineq.blogspot.com

    18 Nov 2017

Show all 4 claims

Freezing world output at today's level would condemn a quarter of humanity to permanent abject poverty.

  1. Branko Milanovic Economist specialising in global income inequality Then, unless we change the distribution of income, we are condemning to permanent abject poverty some 15 percent of world population that currently earn less than $1.90 per day and some quarter of humankind who earn less than $2.50 per day. The illusion of “degrowth” in a poor and unequal worldglineq.blogspot.com · 18 Nov 2017All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThen, unless we change the distribution of income, we are condemning to permanent abject poverty some 15 percent of world population that currently earn less than $1.90 per day and some quarter of humankind who earn less than $2.50 per day.

    ↗The illusion of “degrowth” in a poor and unequal worldglineq.blogspot.com

    18 Nov 2017

Degrowth shared out equally would cut the incomes of everyone above the world average by about two-thirds.

  1. Branko Milanovic Economist specialising in global income inequality How much of a reduction would this imply for the global top 27% (those with incomes above the global mean)? Their incomes would have to be cut by almost two-thirds. The illusion of “degrowth” in a poor and unequal worldglineq.blogspot.com · 18 Nov 2017All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsHow much of a reduction would this imply for the global top 27% (those with incomes above the global mean)? Their incomes would have to be cut by almost two-thirds.

    ↗The illusion of “degrowth” in a poor and unequal worldglineq.blogspot.com

    18 Nov 2017

Degrowth would require the world to go from an inequality worse than South Africa's to a complete equality no recorded society has ever had.

  1. Branko Milanovic Economist specialising in global income inequality The world would have to move from an inequality level that is higher than that of South Africa to complete equality that has never existed in any recorded society. The illusion of “degrowth” in a poor and unequal worldglineq.blogspot.com · 18 Nov 2017All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThe world would have to move from an inequality level that is higher than that of South Africa to complete equality that has never existed in any recorded society.

    ↗The illusion of “degrowth” in a poor and unequal worldglineq.blogspot.com

    18 Nov 2017

A viewour reading

Cheap energy is what made prosperity and lower impact stop being opposites

4 claims filed here, newest first — each in the words of whoever said it.

An economy needs lots of energy consumption in order to escape poverty.

  1. Noah Smith Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter It’s a simple truth that if you want your economy to escape poverty, you need lots of energy consumption Why you won’t get a flying carnoahpinion.blog · 3 Sept 2026
    Their wordsIt’s a simple truth that if you want your economy to escape poverty, you need lots of energy consumption

    ↗Why you won’t get a flying carnoahpinion.blog

    3 Sept 2026

Show all 4 claims

For the first time in history it is possible to improve human wellbeing and reduce environmental impact at the same time.

  1. Hannah Ritchie Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World My argument is simple: for the first time in history, we can improve human wellbeing while reducing our environmental impact. Can we break the human development-environment trade-off?sustainabilitybynumbers.com · 9 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsMy argument is simple: for the first time in history, we can improve human wellbeing while reducing our environmental impact.

    ↗Can we break the human development-environment trade-off?sustainabilitybynumbers.com

    9 Dec 2025

Cheap clean energy has broken the old trade-off between raising living standards and cutting environmental harm.

Mental modelTrade-offs

  1. Hannah Ritchie Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World The rapid drop in renewable energy costs in the last decade (alongside huge improvements in battery technologies) has started to break this deadlock. Can we break the human development-environment trade-off?sustainabilitybynumbers.com · 9 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThe rapid drop in renewable energy costs in the last decade (alongside huge improvements in battery technologies) has started to break this deadlock.

    ↗Can we break the human development-environment trade-off?sustainabilitybynumbers.com

    9 Dec 2025

  2. Casey Handmer Physicist, formerly at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory Cheap solar is the unlock that brings human progress and climate action from the realm of fundamental incompatibility to complimentary inevitability. Radical Energy Abundancecaseyhandmer.wordpress.com · 11 Oct 2023All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsCheap solar is the unlock that brings human progress and climate action from the realm of fundamental incompatibility to complimentary inevitability.

    ↗Radical Energy Abundancecaseyhandmer.wordpress.com

    11 Oct 2023

Cheap energy will at least double global growth to 6% a year, tripling the world economy by 2042.

  1. Casey Handmer Physicist, formerly at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory We expect growth to at least double to 6%/year, for a cumulative tripling of the global economy by 2042. Radical Energy Abundancecaseyhandmer.wordpress.com · 11 Oct 2023All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsWe expect growth to at least double to 6%/year, for a cumulative tripling of the global economy by 2042.

    ↗Radical Energy Abundancecaseyhandmer.wordpress.com

    11 Oct 2023

A viewour reading

It is an opportunity rather than a law, and it can still be missed

4 claims filed here, newest first — each in the words of whoever said it.

Humans have never been sustainable: earlier generations had a lower environmental impact and lives that were much worse.

  1. Hannah Ritchie Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World By this broader definition, humans have never been truly sustainable. Can we break the human development-environment trade-off?sustainabilitybynumbers.com · 9 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsBy this broader definition, humans have never been truly sustainable.

    ↗Can we break the human development-environment trade-off?sustainabilitybynumbers.com

    9 Dec 2025

Show all 4 claims

Breaking the trade-off between prosperity and the environment is an opportunity rather than something that will happen on its own.

Mental modelTrade-offs

  1. Hannah Ritchie Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World Here, I always emphasise that it is an opportunity, not an inevitability. There’s no law that says this will happen. Can we break the human development-environment trade-off?sustainabilitybynumbers.com · 9 Dec 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsHere, I always emphasise that it is an opportunity, not an inevitability. There’s no law that says this will happen.

    ↗Can we break the human development-environment trade-off?sustainabilitybynumbers.com

    9 Dec 2025

A highly dynamic economy that cheaply mass-produces robots may increase rather than decrease the risk of Malthusian resource dilemmas.

Mental modelSecond-order thinking

  1. Tyler Cowen Economist at George Mason University A very dynamic economy probably will be very good at building lots of robots cheaply, which may make us more rather than less likely to end up in Malthusian dilemmas. GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter?tylercowen.com · 1 Oct 2023All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsA very dynamic economy probably will be very good at building lots of robots cheaply, which may make us more rather than less likely to end up in Malthusian dilemmas.

    ↗GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter?tylercowen.com

    1 Oct 2023

If everyone does only a little to help solve a big problem, the collective result will still be only a little.

  1. David MacKay Physicist A more realistic mantra is: if everyone does a little, we’ll achieve only a little. Sustainable Energy — without the hot airinference.org.uk · 3 Nov 2008All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsA more realistic mantra is: if everyone does a little, we’ll achieve only a little.

    ↗Sustainable Energy — without the hot airinference.org.uk

    3 Nov 2008

A viewour reading

Either the lever is a price on the dirty things, or there is no lever

4 claims filed here, newest first — each in the words of whoever said it.

Climate change is real and is not the civilisation-threatening disaster it was sold as, and the expensive policies bought nothing.

  1. John H. Cochrane Economist at the Hoover Institution climate change though real is not the civilization-threatening disaster pitched at Davos, Paris, and the media, that hugely expensive climate policies do no good Climate turning pointgrumpy-economist.com · 18 Sept 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsclimate change though real is not the civilization-threatening disaster pitched at Davos, Paris, and the media, that hugely expensive climate policies do no good

    ↗Climate turning pointgrumpy-economist.com

    18 Sept 2025

Show all 4 claims

Climate became a moral and political cause rather than a technical one, and that is what will destroy public support for it.

  1. John H. Cochrane Economist at the Hoover Institution The “climate crisis” has been taught as gospel for 20 years. Now the average person can see their teachers have been preaching politics in the name of science. Climate turning pointgrumpy-economist.com · 18 Sept 2025All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsThe “climate crisis” has been taught as gospel for 20 years. Now the average person can see their teachers have been preaching politics in the name of science.

    ↗Climate turning pointgrumpy-economist.com

    18 Sept 2025

You cannot make people adopt more expensive clean energy, because higher fuel prices are political suicide under any government.

  1. Casey Handmer Physicist, formerly at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory it is quite obviously impossible to enforce universal adoption of more expensive carbon-free energy through, eg, mandatory carbon offsets, as higher gas prices are political suicide regardless of system of government. How to Produce Green Hydrogen for $1/kgcaseyhandmer.wordpress.com · 16 Aug 2023All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsit is quite obviously impossible to enforce universal adoption of more expensive carbon-free energy through, eg, mandatory carbon offsets, as higher gas prices are political suicide regardless of system of government.

    ↗How to Produce Green Hydrogen for $1/kgcaseyhandmer.wordpress.com

    16 Aug 2023

The way to cut emissions is to tax the most emission-intensive goods, not to stop growth.

  1. Branko Milanovic Economist specialising in global income inequality It would make more sense, if we want to think seriously about how to reduce emissions, not to engage in the illusions of degrowth in a very poor and unequal world but to think how the most emission-intensive goods and services could be taxed in order to reduce their consumption. The illusion of “degrowth” in a poor and unequal worldglineq.blogspot.com · 18 Nov 2017All korrents from this piece
    Their wordsIt would make more sense, if we want to think seriously about how to reduce emissions, not to engage in the illusions of degrowth in a very poor and unequal world but to think how the most emission-intensive goods and services could be taxed in order to reduce their consumption.

    ↗The illusion of “degrowth” in a poor and unequal worldglineq.blogspot.com

    18 Nov 2017

Where the claims collide

Asserted relations, each with the curator’s reason — never computed, because similarity cannot tell agreement from opposition.

The way to cut emissions is to tax the most emission-intensive goods, not to stop growth.

held by Branko Milanovic

These cannot both be true

You cannot make people adopt more expensive clean energy, because higher fuel prices are political suicide under any government.

held by Casey Handmer

Milanovic’s alternative to degrowth is to tax emission-intensive goods and services so people consume less of them. Handmer says it is obviously impossible to make anyone adopt more expensive carbon-free energy, because higher fuel prices are political suicide under any system of government. Milanovic’s remedy is the thing Handmer says cannot be done.

Cheap clean energy has broken the old trade-off between raising living standards and cutting environmental harm.

held by Hannah Ritchie · Casey Handmer

These pull against each other

Breaking the trade-off between prosperity and the environment is an opportunity rather than something that will happen on its own.

held by Hannah Ritchie

These are the two halves of Ritchie’s own argument and they pull against each other on purpose: the deadlock has started to break, and there is no law that says it will keep breaking. She holds both, and the second is the sentence she says she always adds.

The climate policy everyone has quietly assumed is that poorer countries stay poor, and that is the wrong answer.

held by Casey Handmer · Branko Milanovic

These pull against each other

Cheap clean energy has broken the old trade-off between raising living standards and cutting environmental harm.

held by Hannah Ritchie · Casey Handmer

Handmer and Ritchie both hold that cheap clean energy has broken the old trade-off, and they disagree about what follows. Handmer treats the outcome as an inevitability that the default climate discourse is too pessimistic to see; Ritchie insists in the same breath that it is an opportunity and not an inevitability. Agreement about the fact and disagreement about the modality is the more interesting half.

Cheap energy will at least double global growth to 6% a year, tripling the world economy by 2042.

held by Casey Handmer

These pull against each other

A highly dynamic economy that cheaply mass-produces robots may increase rather than decrease the risk of Malthusian resource dilemmas.

held by Tyler Cowen

Handmer expects cheap energy to double global growth and triple the world economy by 2042. Cowen warns that an economy which cheaply mass-produces robots may raise rather than lower the risk of Malthusian resource dilemmas. Faster growth is the premise of both, and they disagree about whether abundance is the escape from scarcity or the thing that runs into it.

The way to cut emissions is to tax the most emission-intensive goods, not to stop growth.

held by Branko Milanovic

These pull against each other

Climate change is real and is not the civilisation-threatening disaster it was sold as, and the expensive policies bought nothing.

held by John H. Cochrane

Milanovic wants emission taxes rather than degrowth, which assumes emissions are worth paying to cut. Cochrane says climate change, though real, is not the civilisation-threatening disaster it was sold as and that expensive climate policies do no good. They agree degrowth is the wrong answer and disagree about whether there is a bill worth paying at all.

Degrowth would require the world to go from an inequality worse than South Africa's to a complete equality no recorded society has ever had.

held by Branko Milanovic

The first rests on the second

Degrowth shared out equally would cut the incomes of everyone above the world average by about two-thirds.

held by Branko Milanovic

The claim about the Gini is the arithmetic of the claim about incomes: getting everybody to the global mean is what takes world inequality from worse-than-South-Africa to a flat distribution no society has recorded.

On this topic, not yet placed

Matched by wording, not yet read into a view. The archive grows on its own, so this is where new claims wait for somebody to read them.

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