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Do we shrink our way out of the climate problem, or grow our way out?

Everyone on this page agrees the emissions have to come down and nobody here agrees about what that costs. One argument does the arithmetic of a fixed global output and finds that it means a quarter of humanity stays poor, or that everyone above the world average loses two thirds of their income. Another says the trade-off has already broken, because clean energy got cheap, and that prosperity and lower impact stopped being opposites some time in the last decade. A third accepts that and insists it is an opportunity rather than a law. A fourth doubts the bill was ever worth paying.

16 dated claims from 7 people · 4 views · most recent 3 Sept 2026. Every line below links to the person’s own words.

The views

What is a view?

Our reading of what a group of claims have in common, one level above a korrent: a korrent is our reading of what somebody said, a view is our reading of what several korrents share. The claims are printed under it, so the sentence can be checked against them.

Nobody is filed under a view — claims are. A person is named here because a dated claim of theirs sits under it, and somebody whose claims sit under two views appears under both.

  1. Shrinking output means somebody stays poor, and the arithmetic says who

    Casey HandmerBranko Milanovic

  2. Cheap energy is what made prosperity and lower impact stop being opposites

    Noah SmithHannah RitchieCasey Handmer

  3. It is an opportunity rather than a law, and it can still be missed

    Hannah RitchieTyler CowenDavid MacKay

  4. Either the lever is a price on the dirty things, or there is no lever

    John H. CochraneCasey HandmerBranko Milanovic

A viewour reading

Shrinking output means somebody stays poor, and the arithmetic says who

4 claims filed here, newest first — each in the words of whoever said it.

The climate policy everyone has quietly assumed is that poorer countries stay poor, and that is the wrong answer.

  1. Casey Handmer The default climate discourse in recent years has been congruent to an acceptance that curtailing CO2 emissions would require the regrettable but ultimately impersonal de-industrialization and re-impoverishment of most of the world, which is both morally repugnant and politically impossible to achieve without first use of nuclear weapons. caseyhandmer.wordpress.com

    Physicist, formerly at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory

    The default climate discourse in recent years has been congruent to an acceptance that curtailing CO2 emissions would require the regrettable but ultimately impersonal de-industrialization and re-impoverishment of most of the world, which is both morally repugnant and politically impossible to achieve without first use of nuclear weapons.
  2. Branko Milanovic Keeping so many people in abject poverty so that the rich can continue to enjoy their current standard of living is obviously something that the proponents of degrowth would not condone. glineq.blogspot.com

    Economist specialising in global income inequality

    Keeping so many people in abject poverty so that the rich can continue to enjoy their current standard of living is obviously something that the proponents of degrowth would not condone.

Freezing world output at today's level would condemn a quarter of humanity to permanent abject poverty.

  1. Branko Milanovic Then, unless we change the distribution of income, we are condemning to permanent abject poverty some 15 percent of world population that currently earn less than $1.90 per day and some quarter of humankind who earn less than $2.50 per day. glineq.blogspot.com

    Economist specialising in global income inequality

    Then, unless we change the distribution of income, we are condemning to permanent abject poverty some 15 percent of world population that currently earn less than $1.90 per day and some quarter of humankind who earn less than $2.50 per day.

Degrowth shared out equally would cut the incomes of everyone above the world average by about two-thirds.

  1. Branko Milanovic How much of a reduction would this imply for the global top 27% (those with incomes above the global mean)? Their incomes would have to be cut by almost two-thirds. glineq.blogspot.com

    Economist specialising in global income inequality

    How much of a reduction would this imply for the global top 27% (those with incomes above the global mean)? Their incomes would have to be cut by almost two-thirds.

Degrowth would require the world to go from an inequality worse than South Africa's to a complete equality no recorded society has ever had.

  1. Branko Milanovic The world would have to move from an inequality level that is higher than that of South Africa to complete equality that has never existed in any recorded society. glineq.blogspot.com

    Economist specialising in global income inequality

    The world would have to move from an inequality level that is higher than that of South Africa to complete equality that has never existed in any recorded society.

A viewour reading

Cheap energy is what made prosperity and lower impact stop being opposites

4 claims filed here, newest first — each in the words of whoever said it.

For the first time in history it is possible to improve human wellbeing and reduce environmental impact at the same time.

  1. Hannah Ritchie My argument is simple: for the first time in history, we can improve human wellbeing while reducing our environmental impact. sustainabilitybynumbers.com

    Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World

    My argument is simple: for the first time in history, we can improve human wellbeing while reducing our environmental impact.

Cheap clean energy has broken the old trade-off between raising living standards and cutting environmental harm.

  1. Hannah Ritchie The rapid drop in renewable energy costs in the last decade (alongside huge improvements in battery technologies) has started to break this deadlock. sustainabilitybynumbers.com

    Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World

    The rapid drop in renewable energy costs in the last decade (alongside huge improvements in battery technologies) has started to break this deadlock.
  2. Casey Handmer Cheap solar is the unlock that brings human progress and climate action from the realm of fundamental incompatibility to complimentary inevitability. caseyhandmer.wordpress.com

    Physicist, formerly at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory

    Cheap solar is the unlock that brings human progress and climate action from the realm of fundamental incompatibility to complimentary inevitability.

Cheap energy will at least double global growth to 6% a year, tripling the world economy by 2042.

  1. Casey Handmer We expect growth to at least double to 6%/year, for a cumulative tripling of the global economy by 2042. caseyhandmer.wordpress.com

    Physicist, formerly at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory

    We expect growth to at least double to 6%/year, for a cumulative tripling of the global economy by 2042.

A viewour reading

It is an opportunity rather than a law, and it can still be missed

4 claims filed here, newest first — each in the words of whoever said it.

Humans have never been sustainable: earlier generations had a lower environmental impact and lives that were much worse.

  1. Hannah Ritchie By this broader definition, humans have never been truly sustainable. sustainabilitybynumbers.com

    Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World

    By this broader definition, humans have never been truly sustainable.

Breaking the trade-off between prosperity and the environment is an opportunity rather than something that will happen on its own.

  1. Hannah Ritchie Here, I always emphasise that it is an opportunity, not an inevitability. There’s no law that says this will happen. sustainabilitybynumbers.com

    Data scientist at Our World in Data and author of Not the End of the World

    Here, I always emphasise that it is an opportunity, not an inevitability. There’s no law that says this will happen.

A highly dynamic economy that cheaply mass-produces robots may increase rather than decrease the risk of Malthusian resource dilemmas.

  1. Tyler Cowen A very dynamic economy probably will be very good at building lots of robots cheaply, which may make us more rather than less likely to end up in Malthusian dilemmas. tylercowen.com

    Economist at George Mason University

    A very dynamic economy probably will be very good at building lots of robots cheaply, which may make us more rather than less likely to end up in Malthusian dilemmas.

A viewour reading

Either the lever is a price on the dirty things, or there is no lever

4 claims filed here, newest first — each in the words of whoever said it.

Climate change is real and is not the civilisation-threatening disaster it was sold as, and the expensive policies bought nothing.

  1. John H. Cochrane climate change though real is not the civilization-threatening disaster pitched at Davos, Paris, and the media, that hugely expensive climate policies do no good grumpy-economist.com

    Economist at the Hoover Institution

    climate change though real is not the civilization-threatening disaster pitched at Davos, Paris, and the media, that hugely expensive climate policies do no good

Climate became a moral and political cause rather than a technical one, and that is what will destroy public support for it.

  1. John H. Cochrane He documents just how climate became a political and moral cause, not a scientific or technical one, and thus sowed the seeds of its demise once people figured that out. grumpy-economist.com

    Economist at the Hoover Institution

    He documents just how climate became a political and moral cause, not a scientific or technical one, and thus sowed the seeds of its demise once people figured that out.

You cannot make people adopt more expensive clean energy, because higher fuel prices are political suicide under any government.

  1. Casey Handmer it is quite obviously impossible to enforce universal adoption of more expensive carbon-free energy through, eg, mandatory carbon offsets, as higher gas prices are political suicide regardless of system of government. caseyhandmer.wordpress.com

    Physicist, formerly at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory

    it is quite obviously impossible to enforce universal adoption of more expensive carbon-free energy through, eg, mandatory carbon offsets, as higher gas prices are political suicide regardless of system of government.

The way to cut emissions is to tax the most emission-intensive goods, not to stop growth.

  1. Branko Milanovic It would make more sense, if we want to think seriously about how to reduce emissions, not to engage in the illusions of degrowth in a very poor and unequal world but to think how the most emission-intensive goods and services could be taxed in order to reduce their consumption. glineq.blogspot.com

    Economist specialising in global income inequality

    It would make more sense, if we want to think seriously about how to reduce emissions, not to engage in the illusions of degrowth in a very poor and unequal world but to think how the most emission-intensive goods and services could be taxed in order to reduce their consumption.

Where the claims collide

Asserted relations, each with the curator’s reason — never computed, because similarity cannot tell agreement from opposition.

Milanovic’s alternative to degrowth is to tax emission-intensive goods and services so people consume less of them. Handmer says it is obviously impossible to make anyone adopt more expensive carbon-free energy, because higher fuel prices are political suicide under any system of government. Milanovic’s remedy is the thing Handmer says cannot be done.

These are the two halves of Ritchie’s own argument and they pull against each other on purpose: the deadlock has started to break, and there is no law that says it will keep breaking. She holds both, and the second is the sentence she says she always adds.

Handmer and Ritchie both hold that cheap clean energy has broken the old trade-off, and they disagree about what follows. Handmer treats the outcome as an inevitability that the default climate discourse is too pessimistic to see; Ritchie insists in the same breath that it is an opportunity and not an inevitability. Agreement about the fact and disagreement about the modality is the more interesting half.

Handmer expects cheap energy to double global growth and triple the world economy by 2042. Cowen warns that an economy which cheaply mass-produces robots may raise rather than lower the risk of Malthusian resource dilemmas. Faster growth is the premise of both, and they disagree about whether abundance is the escape from scarcity or the thing that runs into it.

Milanovic wants emission taxes rather than degrowth, which assumes emissions are worth paying to cut. Cochrane says climate change, though real, is not the civilisation-threatening disaster it was sold as and that expensive climate policies do no good. They agree degrowth is the wrong answer and disagree about whether there is a bill worth paying at all.

The claim about the Gini is the arithmetic of the claim about incomes: getting everybody to the global mean is what takes world inequality from worse-than-South-Africa to a flat distribution no society has recorded.

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