GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter?

CHAPTER 2 Milton Friedman as GOAT?

1. Our reading

   Milton Friedman's chief intellectual flaw was wanting to make economics too simple.

   Their wordsAnd indeed overall that interaction fits with my more general reservation about Friedman: he wanted to make economics just a little bit too simple.

CHAPTER 3 John Maynard Keynes

2. Our reading

   John Maynard Keynes is best understood as a British aesthete rationalist who did economics in his spare time, not primarily as an economist.

   Their wordsI don’t view Keynes primarily as an economist, rather I see him as a British aesthete rationalist who did economics in his spare time, and fortunately he had lots of spare time.

3. Our reading

   All thinkers are shaped indelibly by the region they grew up in.

   Their wordsI often like to say that all thinkers are regional thinkers, namely they are indelibly shaped by the circumstances they grew up in

4. Our reading

   Keynes's bisexuality and strong interest in gay sex were a significant cause of his ability to grasp different and outside perspectives.

   Their wordsI view Keynes’s bisexuality and his strong interest in gay sex as a significant cause of what made him interesting and which gave him so strong an ability to grasp different and outside perspectives.

5. Our reading

   There is no clearly defined notion of who the right people are to entrust with power, which warrants deep skepticism of government on public choice grounds.

   Their wordsI am myself skeptical that there is a clearly defined notion of who “the right people” might be, and thus I am on public choice grounds far more skeptical of government than Keynes was.

6. Our reading

   The General Theory is a brilliant work despite numerous flaws in reasoning, exposition, and microeconomics.

   Their wordsMy current view is that the General Theory is a brilliant work, marred by numerous mistakes in reasoning, exposition, and microeconomics.

CHAPTER 4 Friedrich A. Hayek

7. Our reading

   Hayek's three best economics articles surpass the three best articles from any other economist.

   Their wordsHayek’s three best articles are better than any three articles from any other economist.

8. Our reading

   Even flawed scientistic rigor in policy analysis is preferable to none, since its absence would open the field to irresponsible, ideological policy advice.

   Their wordsAt the end of the day, scientism still seems better than “no scientism,” given that the latter would leave the field open for highly irresponsible and also ideological -- ideological in all directions – pieces of policy advice.

9. Our reading

   Both markets and states are spontaneous orders, not just the state as constructed 'taxis' versus the market as 'cosmos'.

   Mental modelEmergence

   Their wordsIn my own view, both markets and states are spontaneous orders, and government is not uniquely the product of “taxis” or “rationalist constructivism.”

10. Our reading

    Interest rates have little effect on investment, and central banks have limited control over real interest rates.

    Their wordsIn the actual data, interest rates don’t seem to drive investment that much, and furthermore central bank influence over the real rate of interest typically is limited.

11. Our reading

    An inability to see the viewpoints of people unlike oneself is a genuine weakness in a social scientist, not merely a separate moral failing.

    Their wordsIt is a sign that Hayek was not so great at seeing the viewpoints of other people, and that (political moralizing aside) also should count as a weakness of him as an economist and social scientist.

CHAPTER 5 Those who did not make the short list: Marshall, Samuelson, Arrow, Becker, and Schumpeter

12. Our reading

    Neither monetarist money-supply-focused models nor Keynesian macro models have outperformed simple random-walk models at forecasting the macroeconomy.

    Their wordsFriedman’s focus on the money supply has not held up, as Samuelson suggested, but the alternative Keynesian macro models recommended by Samuelson in the same interview have not done better and they were not outperforming simple random walk models of predicting the macroeconomic future.

13. Our reading

    Moral hazard problems are often worse in government programs than in private markets.

    Mental modelIncentives

    Their wordsThe truth is that moral hazard concerns very often are worse with government programs than with markets.

14. Our reading

    Virtually all economics of contemporary significance is empirical work.

    Their wordsVirtually all contemporary economics of note is empirical work

15. Our reading

    After Schumpeter wrote, most recessions were caused by bursting asset price bubbles, monetary policy mistakes, or sharp oil price increases.

    Their wordsAs it turns out, after Schumpeter wrote most recessions were caused by either the bursting of asset price bubbles, monetary policy mistakes (unnecessary deflations), or sharp increases in the price of oil.

CHAPTER 6 Why won't anyone nominate John Stuart Mill as GOAT?

16. Our reading

    John Stuart Mill's The Subjection of Women is one of the best, most important, and most original books of the nineteenth century.

    Their wordsNot only did Mill consider the topic of women, but virtually everything he claimed turned out to be true, and insightful, even though it was highly controversial at the time. It is one of the best and most important and most original books of the nineteenth century.

17. Our reading

    John Stuart Mill developed a deeper and more enduring defense of liberty than Hayek or Friedman did, despite writing decades earlier.

    Their wordsIt is striking that Mill, although writing many decades before Hayek and Friedman, fleshed out a deeper and more enduring defense of liberty than they did.

18. Our reading

    Intelligent liberal elites can badly mismanage the colonies they govern, in ways that persist for decades or centuries.

    Their wordsA simple understanding of coalitions, political competition, and limited resources will bring you rather quickly to the conclusion that intelligent liberal elites can screw up their colonies pretty badly and in ways that can persist for decades or centuries.

CHAPTER 7 Malthus as GOAT and are we all doomed?

19. Our reading

    Modern prosperity does not refute Malthus: the Malthusian dilemma was faced, and one of Malthus’s own options was taken.

    Their wordsYou thus can see that the prosperity of the modern world does not refute Malthus. We faced the Malthusian dilemma and opted for one of his options, namely vice.

20. Our reading

    A highly dynamic economy that cheaply mass-produces robots may increase rather than decrease the risk of Malthusian resource dilemmas.

    Mental modelSecond-order thinking

    Their wordsA very dynamic economy probably will be very good at building lots of robots cheaply, which may make us more rather than less likely to end up in Malthusian dilemmas.

21. Our reading

    The highest gains from trade come from the introduction of new goods altogether, rather than from cheaper existing ones.

    Their wordsIt turns out that the highest gains from trade come from the introduction of new goods altogether, just as Malthus had suggested.

CHAPTER 9 The winner(s): So who is the greatest economist of all time?

22. Our reading

    Milton Friedman was the best economist among the plausible candidates for greatest economist of all time.

    Their wordsFriedman has one big factor in his favor, namely that he is clearly the best economist on the list of contending names.

23. Our reading

    Milton Friedman's best-known policy prescription, targeting the money supply, is no longer regarded as correct.

    Their wordsFriedman’s best-known policy idea – targeting the money supply – no longer is regarded as correct.

24. Our reading

    Among the leading candidates for greatest economist of all time, Adam Smith was analytically the weakest, save perhaps Malthus.

    Their wordsOf all the contenders for GOAT, Smith seems to be clearly the worst economist, with the possible exception of Malthus.

25. Our reading

    Modern economics has shifted from being a carrier of broad ideas to being primarily a means of data collection and hypothesis testing.

    Their wordseconomics is no longer a carrier of ideas. It is primarily a means of data collection and very sophisticated hypothesis testing.