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← Roughly half of the possible outcomes of advanced AI development would be good or great for society.
17 connected korrents · 19 moments from 12 Sept 2022 to 21 Oct 2026.
Everything filed under AI alignment
AI alignment
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AGI
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AI and jobs
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reinforcement learning Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Roughly half of the possible outcomes of advanced AI development would be good or great for society. Roughly half of the possible outcomes of advanced AI development would be good or great for society. Last stated 2 months ago
15 Sept 2026
MS
M.G. Siegler — holds since 2026-09-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI research is on a good trajectory overall — good for science and good for society — and existential concerns will only become relevant in the distant future. — tap to centre the map on it AI research is on a good trajectory overall — good for science and good for society — and existential concerns will only become relevant in the distant future. Last stated 3 years ago
12 Aug 2023
YB
Yoshua Bengio — holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
YB
Yoshua Bengio — no longer holds since 2023-08-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Given the current pace of AI capabilities relative to governance, society will at best avoid only the worst-case outcomes, not the merely very bad ones. — tap to centre the map on it Given the current pace of AI capabilities relative to governance, society will at best avoid only the worst-case outcomes, not the merely very bad ones. Last stated 8 months ago
22 Feb 2026
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2026-02-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Society has catching up to do: AI is incredibly powerful and not always right, and people who argue 'but my agent said so' have not learned that yet. — tap to centre the map on it Society has catching up to do: AI is incredibly powerful and not always right, and people who argue 'but my agent said so' have not learned that yet. Last stated 9 months ago
12 Feb 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-02-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: No one fully understands the consequences of how capable AI is becoming. — tap to centre the map on it No one fully understands the consequences of how capable AI is becoming. Last stated 2 months ago
1 Sept 2026
SA
Sam Altman — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario. — tap to centre the map on it An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario. Last stated a year ago
23 Jul 2025
DH
Demis Hassabis — holds since 2025-07-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A likely outcome is that many occupations are eventually mostly replaced by AI while humans still have plenty to do. — tap to centre the map on it A likely outcome is that many occupations are eventually mostly replaced by AI while humans still have plenty to do. Last stated 2 months ago
7 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The rising level of public concern about AI extinction risk is overblown relative to how progress will actually unfold. — tap to centre the map on it The rising level of public concern about AI extinction risk is overblown relative to how progress will actually unfold. Last stated 2 months ago
19 Sept 2026
NL
Nathan Lambert — holds since 2026-09-19 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If AIs can now considerably improve the training of future AIs, this is very unlikely to end well. — tap to centre the map on it If AIs can now considerably improve the training of future AIs, this is very unlikely to end well. Last stated 2 weeks ago
21 Oct 2026
KP
Kelsey Piper — holds since 2026-10-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. — tap to centre the map on it A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated. Last stated 5 months ago
4 Jun 2026
AI
Alex Imas — holds since 2026-06-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. — tap to centre the map on it A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted. Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model that could learn effectively from raw bitstrings or bytestrings would be extremely powerful, able to learn from any data modality — tap to centre the map on it A model that could learn effectively from raw bitstrings or bytestrings would be extremely powerful, able to learn from any data modality Last stated 3 years ago
10 Oct 2023
CH
Chip Huyen — holds since 2023-10-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard. Last stated 2 years ago
2 Feb 2025
AC
Ajeya Cotra — holds since 2023-08-29 — tap for who they are
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2022-09-12 — tap for who they are
MB
Miles Brundage — holds since 2025-02-02 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI progress is jagged: models are becoming superhuman at math and software engineering while remaining far weaker at intuition, creativity, and other forms of human reasoning. — tap to centre the map on it AI progress is jagged: models are becoming superhuman at math and software engineering while remaining far weaker at intuition, creativity, and other forms of human reasoning. Last stated 2 months ago
10 Sept 2026
NL
Nathan Lambert — holds since 2026-09-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Anyone who thinks large language models are a direct route to transformative AGI is kidding themselves. — tap to centre the map on it Anyone who thinks large language models are a direct route to transformative AGI is kidding themselves. Last stated a year ago
7 Jun 2025
GM
Gary Marcus — holds since 2025-06-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Scaling up GPT will never produce AGI, because a model trained on cross-entropy loss cannot get there; reinforcement learning in rich environments is required. — tap to centre the map on it Scaling up GPT will never produce AGI, because a model trained on cross-entropy loss cannot get there; reinforcement learning in rich environments is required. Last stated 3 years ago
29 Jun 2023
GH
George Hotz — holds since 2023-06-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Training AIs on millions of verifiable tasks in diverse RL environments will lead to AGI. — tap to centre the map on it Training AIs on millions of verifiable tasks in diverse RL environments will lead to AGI. Last stated 4 months ago
26 Jun 2026
DP
Dwarkesh Patel — holds since 2026-06-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel. — tap to centre the map on it A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel. Last stated 3 months ago
3 Aug 2026
DD
Dmitri Dolgov — holds since 2026-08-03 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Roughly half of the possible outcomes of advanced AI development would be good or great for society.
Holds Read this korrent →
AI research is on a good trajectory overall — good for science and good for society — and existential concerns will only become relevant in the distant future.
No longer holds
Given the current pace of AI capabilities relative to governance, society will at best avoid only the worst-case outcomes, not the merely very bad ones.
Holds
Society has catching up to do: AI is incredibly powerful and not always right, and people who argue 'but my agent said so' have not learned that yet.
Holds
No one fully understands the consequences of how capable AI is becoming.
Holds
An end-to-end self-improving AI is probably possible, but it is not even desirable, because it is a hard-takeoff scenario.
Holds
A likely outcome is that many occupations are eventually mostly replaced by AI while humans still have plenty to do.
Holds
The rising level of public concern about AI extinction risk is overblown relative to how progress will actually unfold.
Holds
If AIs can now considerably improve the training of future AIs, this is very unlikely to end well.
Holds
A country outside the AI supply chain should just buy the index — which works only in the world where AI ends up commoditised rather than concentrated.
Holds
A language model is no substitute for a well-specified conventional algorithm, so it cannot simply be dropped into a complex problem and trusted.
Holds
A model that could learn effectively from raw bitstrings or bytestrings would be extremely powerful, able to learn from any data modality
Holds
AI progress is faster than people expect, and ordinary scaling can be enough to solve problems that looked very hard.
Holds
AI progress is jagged: models are becoming superhuman at math and software engineering while remaining far weaker at intuition, creativity, and other forms of human reasoning.
Holds
Anyone who thinks large language models are a direct route to transformative AGI is kidding themselves.
Holds
Scaling up GPT will never produce AGI, because a model trained on cross-entropy loss cannot get there; reinforcement learning in rich environments is required.
Holds
Training AIs on millions of verifiable tasks in diverse RL environments will lead to AGI.
Holds
A physical AI company needs three AIs, not one — the agent, the simulator and the critic — turning deployment into a flywheel.
Holds