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← Quantitative rules are not a reliable tool for ensuring government debt sustainability.

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8 connected korrents · 5 moments on record from 11 Feb 2019 to 21 Aug 2026.

Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Quantitative rules are nota reliable tool forensuring government debt… OB Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 A government debt crisis is measurable and therefore visible well in advance; the diagnostic is mechanical rather than a matter of judgement. A government debtcrisis is measurable… RD Ray Dalio — holds since 2026-08-21 The probability of a self-fulfilling bad equilibrium in sovereign debt markets depends little on the debt level itself, but is much reduced by a rule linking the primary balance to debt service increases. The probability of aself-fulfilling bad… OB Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 Public investment cannot be assumed to be automatically financeable by debt merely because it has high social returns. Public investmentcannot be assumed to be… OB Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 Keeping powerful models available only to a chosen few is not a good strategy. Keeping powerful modelsavailable only to a… SA Sam Altman — holds since 2026-08-07 When safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, rolling over public debt without later tax increases is feasible and public debt may carry no fiscal cost. When safe interestrates are expected to… OB Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2019-02-11 OB Olivier Blanchard — turned since 2023-11-06 There is no universal debt-to-GDP threshold beyond which government debt becomes unsustainable; sustainability depends on factors like the real interest rate. There is no universaldebt-to-GDP threshold… OB Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 Judging by output kept near potential despite weak private demand, Japan's decades of high debt and low inflation reflect a qualified policy success, not failure. Judging by output keptnear potential despite… OB Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 Assessing whether government debt is sustainable is as much an art as a science. Assessing whethergovernment debt is… OB Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01
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