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← Prediction markets are generally well-calibrated, meaning events…
14 connected korrents · 13 moments from 1 Jun 2022 to 25 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under market efficiency
market efficiency
Everything filed under investing
investing
Everything filed under price gouging
price gouging
Everything filed under stock market
stock market
Everything filed under product management
product management Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Prediction markets are generally well-calibrated, meaning events predicted with a certain probability occur with roughly that frequency. Prediction markets are generally well-calibrated, meaning events predicted with a certain probability occur with roughly that frequency. Last stated 2 weeks ago
21 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Prediction markets for elections primarily process existing polling data rather than generating independent insights. — tap to centre the map on it Prediction markets for elections primarily process existing polling data rather than generating independent insights. Last stated 2 weeks ago
21 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Only 30 to 50 percent of product experiments win, because consumer behaviour is too unpredictable to be predicted from a hypothesis. — tap to centre the map on it Only 30 to 50 percent of product experiments win, because consumer behaviour is too unpredictable to be predicted from a hypothesis. Last stated 12 months ago
5 Oct 2025
AC
Albert Cheng — holds since 2025-10-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Prediction markets are good at reflecting conventional wisdom but do not provide significant new insights into election outcomes. — tap to centre the map on it Prediction markets are good at reflecting conventional wisdom but do not provide significant new insights into election outcomes. Last stated 2 weeks ago
21 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. — tap to centre the map on it A run of correct forecasts is not evidence of expertise, because among many forecasters some are right by chance. Last stated 4 years ago
9 Aug 2022
GK
Gary Klein — holds since 2022-08-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Giving something 60-40 odds and being wrong is not itself a mistake. — tap to centre the map on it Giving something 60-40 odds and being wrong is not itself a mistake. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Feb 2023
SA
Scott Alexander — holds since 2023-02-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose. — tap to centre the map on it Draconian price controls are among the most ruinous economic policies a government can impose. Last stated 2 weeks ago
18 Sept 2026
SS
Scott Sumner — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Dynamic pricing means prices decrease as well as increase. — tap to centre the map on it Dynamic pricing means prices decrease as well as increase. Last stated 3 weeks ago
13 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Europe's carmakers spent the early 2020s raising prices and profits at their customers' expense, and narrowed their own market doing it. — tap to centre the map on it Europe's carmakers spent the early 2020s raising prices and profits at their customers' expense, and narrowed their own market doing it. Last stated 2 months ago
22 Jul 2026
AT
Adam Tooze — holds since 2026-07-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. — tap to centre the map on it A "good business" now means one that can display quarter-on-quarter stock growth, not one that makes good products at a fair price. Last stated a year ago
21 May 2025
EZ
Ed Zitron — holds since 2025-05-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. — tap to centre the map on it A high, stable dividend yield gives a stock's valuation a downside floor that growth stocks without dividends lack. Last stated 7 months ago
3 Mar 2026
SB
Sanjay Bakshi — holds since 2026-03-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. — tap to centre the map on it A society's prosperity comes from its productivity, not from the financial system or stock market. Last stated a week ago
25 Sept 2026
MM
Mr. Money Mustache — holds since 2026-09-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. — tap to centre the map on it A bubble can only be identified in retrospect, so arguing about whether one is happening now cannot be settled now. Last stated 10 months ago
9 Dec 2025
HM
Howard Marks — holds since 2025-12-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. — tap to centre the map on it A central bank can eliminate a self-fulfilling ('sunspot') debt crisis simply by credibly committing to buy as many bonds as needed at the low interest rate. Last stated 4 years ago
1 Jun 2022
OB
Olivier Blanchard — holds since 2022-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A company that grows enough eventually has no need for investors. — tap to centre the map on it A company that grows enough eventually has no need for investors. Last stated a month ago
1 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are