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← Only 30 to 50 percent of product experiments win, because consumer…
17 connected korrents · 16 moments on record from 18 Dec 2013 to 3 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under innovation
innovation
Everything filed under ambition
ambition
Everything filed under China
China Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: Only 30 to 50 percent of product experiments win, because consumer behaviour is too unpredictable to be predicted from a hypothesis. Only 30 to 50 percent of product experiments win, because consumer behaviour is too unpredictable to be predicted from a hypothesis. Last stated 11 months ago
5 Oct 2025
AC
Albert Cheng — holds since 2025-10-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The share of users who would be very disappointed to lose your product predicts success far better than net promoter score, and forty percent is the line. — tap to centre the map on it The share of users who would be very disappointed to lose your product predicts success far better than net promoter score, and forty percent is the line. Last stated a year ago
23 Mar 2025
RV
Rahul Vohra — holds since 2025-03-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Consumer AI that is right 90% of the time delights people; industrial AI that is right 90% of the time is 100% dissatisfaction. — tap to centre the map on it Consumer AI that is right 90% of the time delights people; industrial AI that is right 90% of the time is 100% dissatisfaction. Last stated 8 months ago
8 Jan 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-01-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Large replication projects answer the wrong question, because most individual studies do not matter either way. — tap to centre the map on it Large replication projects answer the wrong question, because most individual studies do not matter either way. Last stated 3 years ago
11 Apr 2023
AM
Adam Mastroianni — holds since 2023-04-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A rising share of statistically insignificant experiments is the signal that a team has exploited an area too far and should go back to exploring. — tap to centre the map on it A rising share of statistically insignificant experiments is the signal that a team has exploited an area too far and should go back to exploring. Last stated 11 months ago
5 Oct 2025
AC
Albert Cheng — holds since 2025-10-05 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The way to find a hit is to experiment a lot, not to polish. — tap to centre the map on it The way to find a hit is to experiment a lot, not to polish. Last stated 13 years ago
18 Dec 2013
TS
Tynan Sylvester — holds since 2013-12-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A model company may face a winner's curse: it does all the hard innovation and is then one copy away from being commoditised. — tap to centre the map on it A model company may face a winner's curse: it does all the hard innovation and is then one copy away from being commoditised. Last stated 10 months ago
12 Nov 2025
SN
Satya Nadella — holds since 2025-11-12 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The human data an AI model would need to predict trial outcomes can only come from trials in people, so the loop runs no faster than the trials themselves. — tap to centre the map on it The human data an AI model would need to predict trial outcomes can only come from trials in people, so the loop runs no faster than the trials themselves. Last stated 6 months ago
28 Feb 2026
RT
Ruxandra Teslo — holds since 2026-02-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Product-market fit shows up as anger when you tell people they cannot have it yet, not as polite interest. — tap to centre the map on it Product-market fit shows up as anger when you tell people they cannot have it yet, not as polite interest. Last stated 4 weeks ago
10 Aug 2026
PS
Peter Steinberger — holds since 2026-08-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A competitor six months or a year behind the frontier can stay close, because the cost of AI falls more than tenfold every year. — tap to centre the map on it A competitor six months or a year behind the frontier can stay close, because the cost of AI falls more than tenfold every year. Last stated 8 months ago
8 Jan 2026
JH
Jensen Huang — holds since 2026-01-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country cannot have radical technological breakthroughs and also refuse to tolerate uncomfortably rich people, because the financial system it resents is what funds the innovation. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot have radical technological breakthroughs and also refuse to tolerate uncomfortably rich people, because the financial system it resents is what funds the innovation. Last stated a year ago
13 Aug 2025
KJ
Keyu Jin — holds since 2025-08-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A society cannot morally be based on the way evolution works, even though competition is what drives innovation. — tap to centre the map on it A society cannot morally be based on the way evolution works, even though competition is what drives innovation. Last stated 4 years ago
7 Sept 2022
NL
Nick Lane — holds since 2022-09-07 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. — tap to centre the map on it A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. Last stated 3 weeks ago
18 Aug 2026
CH
Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-10-31 — tap for who they are
EB
Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. Last stated a year ago
15 May 2025
HR
Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A few square miles at the Moon's south pole are the only lunar real estate that matters, and whoever gets there first sets the terms. — tap to centre the map on it A few square miles at the Moon's south pole are the only lunar real estate that matters, and whoever gets there first sets the terms. Last stated 3 weeks ago
18 Aug 2026
EB
Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A founder needs ambition rather than a sense of duty, because a startup is grueling enough that dutifulness will not carry anyone through it. — tap to centre the map on it A founder needs ambition rather than a sense of duty, because a startup is grueling enough that dutifulness will not carry anyone through it. Last stated 4 days ago
3 Sept 2026
PG
Paul Graham — holds since 2026-09-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: AI is not a limited-time sale: the people furthest along are working harder than ever, and they need to stop harvesting dopamine as if it ends in two weeks. — tap to centre the map on it AI is not a limited-time sale: the people furthest along are working harder than ever, and they need to stop harvesting dopamine as if it ends in two weeks. Last stated 5 months ago
8 Apr 2026
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2026-04-08 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Aim for moonshots: they attract the best people, leave you the path to yourself, and even sixty to eighty percent of one is a terrific success. — tap to centre the map on it Aim for moonshots: they attract the best people, leave you the path to yourself, and even sixty to eighty percent of one is a terrific success. Last stated a year ago
5 Jun 2025
SP
Sundar Pichai — holds since 2025-06-05 — tap for who they are
At the centre
Only 30 to 50 percent of product experiments win, because consumer behaviour is too unpredictable to be predicted from a hypothesis.
Holds AC Albert ChengRead this korrent →
The share of users who would be very disappointed to lose your product predicts success far better than net promoter score, and forty percent is the line.
Holds RV Rahul Vohra
Consumer AI that is right 90% of the time delights people; industrial AI that is right 90% of the time is 100% dissatisfaction.
Holds JH Jensen Huang
Large replication projects answer the wrong question, because most individual studies do not matter either way.
Holds AM Adam Mastroianni
A rising share of statistically insignificant experiments is the signal that a team has exploited an area too far and should go back to exploring.
Holds AC Albert Cheng
The way to find a hit is to experiment a lot, not to polish.
Holds TS Tynan Sylvester
A model company may face a winner's curse: it does all the hard innovation and is then one copy away from being commoditised.
Holds SN Satya Nadella
The human data an AI model would need to predict trial outcomes can only come from trials in people, so the loop runs no faster than the trials themselves.
Holds RT Ruxandra Teslo
Product-market fit shows up as anger when you tell people they cannot have it yet, not as polite interest.
Holds
A competitor six months or a year behind the frontier can stay close, because the cost of AI falls more than tenfold every year.
Holds JH Jensen Huang
A country cannot have radical technological breakthroughs and also refuse to tolerate uncomfortably rich people, because the financial system it resents is what funds the innovation.
Holds KJ Keyu Jin
A society cannot morally be based on the way evolution works, even though competition is what drives innovation.
Holds NL Nick Lane
A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world.
Holds CH Casey HandmerEB Eric Berger
A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it.
Holds HR Hannah Ritchie
A few square miles at the Moon's south pole are the only lunar real estate that matters, and whoever gets there first sets the terms.
Holds EB Eric Berger
A founder needs ambition rather than a sense of duty, because a startup is grueling enough that dutifulness will not carry anyone through it.
Holds
AI is not a limited-time sale: the people furthest along are working harder than ever, and they need to stop harvesting dopamine as if it ends in two weeks.
Holds
Aim for moonshots: they attract the best people, leave you the path to yourself, and even sixty to eighty percent of one is a terrific success.
Holds