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← Confirmations should count only when they come from risky predictions

12 connected korrents · 9 moments from 14 Apr 2011 to 27 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under optimism optimism Everything filed under agency agency Everything filed under batteries batteries Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Confirmations should count only when they come from risky predictions Confirmations should count only when theycome from risky predictions KP Karl Popper — holds since c. 1963–1968 — tap for who they are Same subject: Far more probability estimates err on the over-optimistic side than the under-optimistic side. — tap to centre the map on it Far more probability estimates erron the over-optimistic side than theunder-optimistic side. Last stated 8 years ago 14 May 2018 SP Shane Parrish — holds since 2018-05-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: If you can predict it, it does not count as emergence. — tap to centre the map on it If you can predict it, it does notcount as emergence. Last stated 3 years ago 1 Sept 2023 NO Neri Oxman — holds since 2023-09-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: Predictions should be less extreme than the information they rest on, an idea that is deeply counterintuitive — tap to centre the map on it Predictions should be less extremethan the information they rest on,an idea that is deeplycounterintuitive DK Daniel Kahneman — holds since c. 2002–2003 — tap for who they are Same subject: A busted computer is not a calamity of data loss or a long restore process in the modern world — tap to centre the map on it A busted computer is not a calamityof data loss or a long restoreprocess in the modern world Last stated 11 months ago 24 Nov 2025 DH David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2025-11-24 — tap for who they are Same subject: A lot of jobs will probably be created because of AI. — tap to centre the map on it A lot of jobs will probably becreated because of AI. Last stated 2 weeks ago 27 Sept 2026 MG Molly Graham — holds since 2026-09-27 — tap for who they are Same subject: A prisoner who lost faith in his own future was doomed — tap to centre the map on it A prisoner who lost faith in his ownfuture was doomed VF Viktor Frankl — holds since c. 1946–1992 — tap for who they are Same subject: A business can use stewardship of a community publication as a top-of-funnel customer acquisition strategy without needing the publication itself to generate revenue directly. — tap to centre the map on it A business can use stewardship of acommunity publication as atop-of-funnel customer acquisitionstrategy without needing thepublication itself to generaterevenue directly. Last stated 3 weeks ago 21 Sept 2026 CC Chris Coyier — holds since 2026-09-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A CEO can master both peacetime and wartime leadership, but it is hard — tap to centre the map on it A CEO can master both peacetime andwartime leadership, but it is hard Last stated 15 years ago 14 Apr 2011 BH Ben Horowitz — holds since 2011-04-14 — tap for who they are Same subject: A company can produce a good commercial without a large budget — tap to centre the map on it A company can produce a goodcommercial without a large budget Last stated 4 years ago 21 Mar 2023 DH David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2023-03-21 — tap for who they are Same subject: A data centre powered by solar and batteries alone needs an array so oversized that the design is not worth building. — tap to centre the map on it A data centre powered by solar andbatteries alone needs an array sooversized that the design is notworth building. Last stated 2 years ago 18 Apr 2024 AV Austin Vernon — holds since 2024-04-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: About a fifth of the US grid could be freed for data centres just by covering the yearly peak with batteries or peaker plants. — tap to centre the map on it About a fifth of the US grid couldbe freed for data centres just bycovering the yearly peak withbatteries or peaker plants. Last stated 7 months ago 13 Mar 2026 DP Dylan Patel — holds since 2026-03-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: An off-grid data centre can delete its uninterruptible power supplies entirely, because the battery bank outside already is one. — tap to centre the map on it An off-grid data centre can deleteits uninterruptible power suppliesentirely, because the battery bankoutside already is one. Last stated 2 years ago 18 Apr 2024 AV Austin Vernon — holds since 2024-04-18 — tap for who they are
same subject or similar wordinga cloud: claims about one subject, named for itbar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2011 to today (stretched back to the oldest claim here) — full is todaya face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they are

At the centre Confirmations should count only when they come from risky predictions Last stated c. 1963–1968 Holds Karl Popper Read this korrent →