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← Confidence in a belief reflects the coherence of the story the mind built, not the quality of the evidence

17 connected korrents · 15 moments from 19 May 2024 to 12 Sept 2026.

Everything filed under politics politics Everything filed under America America Everything filed under attitude change attitude change Everything filed under behavioural science behavioural science Everything filed under Apple Apple Everything filed under startups startups Same subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subjectSame subject Read this korrent: Confidence in a belief reflects the coherence of the story the mind built, not the quality of the evidence Confidence in a belief reflects thecoherence of the story the mind built, notthe quality of the evidence DK Daniel Kahneman — holds since c. 2011 — tap for who they are Same subject: One good story outweighs a mountain of evidence, because most emotions cannot be argued with. — tap to centre the map on it One good story outweighs a mountainof evidence, because most emotionscannot be argued with. Last stated 8 months ago 20 Jan 2026 DS Derek Sivers — holds since 2026-01-20 — tap for who they are Same subject: Knowledge that is not immune to doubt deserves no confidence and cannot count as certainty — tap to centre the map on it Knowledge that is not immune todoubt deserves no confidence andcannot count as certainty AL Al-Ghazali — holds since c. 1106–1111 — tap for who they are Same subject: A truth stays true whoever holds it; people should be judged by the truth, not the truth by its holders — tap to centre the map on it A truth stays true whoever holds it;people should be judged by thetruth, not the truth by its holders AL Al-Ghazali — holds since c. 1106–1111 — tap for who they are Same subject: People tend to assume their habitual practices achieve what they intend, even without evidence that they do. — tap to centre the map on it People tend to assume their habitualpractices achieve what they intend,even without evidence that they do. Last stated 3 months ago 22 Jun 2026 HK Henrik Karlsson — holds since 2026-06-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: Confidence in a memory is not evidence of its accuracy, and our sense of how our own memory works is systematically wrong. — tap to centre the map on it Confidence in a memory is notevidence of its accuracy, and oursense of how our own memory works issystematically wrong. Last stated 3 months ago 13 Jul 2026 AC Alan Castel — holds since 2026-07-13 — tap for who they are Same subject: When accuracy and belonging conflict, most people take the belief that keeps them accepted by their community. — tap to centre the map on it When accuracy and belongingconflict, most people take thebelief that keeps them accepted bytheir community. Last stated 9 months ago 1 Jan 2026 JC James Clear — holds since 2026-01-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: Nothing should be believed merely because it was once believed, but only when it carries clear and uncontested evidence — tap to centre the map on it Nothing should be believed merelybecause it was once believed, butonly when it carries clear anduncontested evidence MA Mary Astell — holds since c. 1697 — tap for who they are Same subject: The only way to build something that matters is to develop conviction in a set of beliefs nobody else agrees with yet, long before they become consensus. — tap to centre the map on it The only way to build something thatmatters is to develop conviction ina set of beliefs nobody else agreeswith yet, long before they becomeconsensus. Last stated 2 months ago 29 Jul 2026 AW Alexandr Wang — holds since 2026-07-29 — tap for who they are Same subject: A backlash against women's economic rise is not automatic; it happens only where politicians choose to mobilise it. — tap to centre the map on it A backlash against women's economicrise is not automatic; it happensonly where politicians choose tomobilise it. Last stated 2 years ago 1 Dec 2024 AE Alice Evans — holds since 2024-12-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: A candidate's political success is increasingly disconnected from their actual record of accomplishment. — tap to centre the map on it A candidate's political success isincreasingly disconnected from theiractual record of accomplishment. Last stated a month ago 31 Aug 2026 DD Daniel W. Drezner — holds since 2026-08-31 — tap for who they are Same subject: A country without cultural unity struggles to provide public goods, because its politics turns into an ethnic spoils system. — tap to centre the map on it A country without cultural unitystruggles to provide public goods,because its politics turns into anethnic spoils system. Last stated 6 months ago 9 Apr 2026 NS Noah Smith — holds since 2026-04-09 — tap for who they are Same subject: A century of fire suppression policy in the American West has dangerously overloaded forests with fuel and made megafires more likely. — tap to centre the map on it A century of fire suppression policyin the American West has dangerouslyoverloaded forests with fuel andmade megafires more likely. Last stated a month ago 22 Aug 2026 JP Jennifer Pahlka — holds since 2026-08-22 — tap for who they are Same subject: A Chinese crewed landing on the Moon before America returns would be a defeat for the free world. — tap to centre the map on it A Chinese crewed landing on the Moonbefore America returns would be adefeat for the free world. Last stated 2 months ago 18 Aug 2026 CH Casey Handmer — holds since 2025-10-31 — tap for who they are EB Eric Berger — holds since 2026-08-18 — tap for who they are Same subject: A city's first rail line comes in at a reasonable cost and every line after it does not, because the follow-up outgrows the in-house team that oversaw the pilot. — tap to centre the map on it A city's first rail line comes in ata reasonable cost and every lineafter it does not, because thefollow-up outgrows the in-house teamthat oversaw the pilot. Last stated 2 years ago 7 Dec 2024 AL Alon Levy — holds since 2024-12-07 — tap for who they are Same subject: Decades of warnings about an AI apocalypse do not justify much concern today. — tap to centre the map on it Decades of warnings about an AIapocalypse do not justify muchconcern today. Last stated 3 weeks ago 12 Sept 2026 PF Paul Ford — holds since 2026-09-12 — tap for who they are Same subject: Deliberately shifting a culture is far harder now that everyone can personalise their media and skip past anything they dislike. — tap to centre the map on it Deliberately shifting a culture isfar harder now that everyone canpersonalise their media and skippast anything they dislike. Last stated a year ago 1 Jul 2025 AE Alice Evans — holds since 2025-07-01 — tap for who they are Same subject: Ideas that first circulate in private group chats often become mainstream public opinion. — tap to centre the map on it Ideas that first circulate inprivate group chats often becomemainstream public opinion. Last stated 2 years ago 19 May 2024 SK Sriram Krishnan — holds since 2024-05-19 — tap for who they are
same subject or similar wordinga cloud: claims about one subject, named for itbar: when it was last stated, on a scale from 2015 to today — full is todaya face: someone who holds the claim — tap it for who they are

At the centre Confidence in a belief reflects the coherence of the story the mind built, not the quality of the evidence Last stated c. 2011 Holds Daniel Kahneman Read this korrent →