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← An early-vote lead is not a surefire predictor of how a party will do in the final result
17 connected korrents · 19 moments from 7 Aug 2006 to 23 Oct 2026.
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innovation Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: An early-vote lead is not a surefire predictor of how a party will do in the final result An early-vote lead is not a surefire predictor of how a party will do in the final result Last stated 4 days ago
20 Oct 2026
GM
G. Elliott Morris — holds since 2026-10-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Get the positioning right and the world keeps handing you wins you never predicted, because well-funded rivals will all use a neutral party to advance their own interests. — tap to centre the map on it Get the positioning right and the world keeps handing you wins you never predicted, because well-funded rivals will all use a neutral party to advance their own interests. Last stated 5 months ago
27 May 2026
DR
Dax Raad — holds since 2026-05-27 — tap for who they are
Same subject: It would take a massive October surprise or a bigger-than-2016 polling error to save the Republican majority in the House, despite Republicans’ aggressive redistricting. — tap to centre the map on it It would take a massive October surprise or a bigger-than-2016 polling error to save the Republican majority in the House, despite Republicans’ aggressive redistricting. Last stated 2 weeks ago
13 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-13 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Don't bet on Democratic Senate candidates' polling in bluer states changing dramatically in the final days leading up to the election. — tap to centre the map on it Don't bet on Democratic Senate candidates' polling in bluer states changing dramatically in the final days leading up to the election. Last stated yesterday
23 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Being early to AI was once an attribute in itself, and that is becoming less and less true as so many people catch up. — tap to centre the map on it Being early to AI was once an attribute in itself, and that is becoming less and less true as so many people catch up. Last stated 2 months ago
11 Aug 2026
KZ
Kyle Zantos — holds since 2026-08-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Polls may be biased in either direction — tap to centre the map on it Polls may be biased in either direction Last stated 3 weeks ago
3 Oct 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-10-03 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Warnings of an imminent US recession in 2006 are partisan gloom rather than a real signal about the economy. — tap to centre the map on it Warnings of an imminent US recession in 2006 are partisan gloom rather than a real signal about the economy. Last stated 18 years ago
29 Nov 2008
AK
Arnold Kling — holds since 2006-08-07 — tap for who they are
AK
Arnold Kling — no longer holds since 2008-11-29 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Cautious expert race ratings, like Cook's, are misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterms under unpopular presidents. — tap to centre the map on it Cautious expert race ratings, like Cook's, are misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterms under unpopular presidents. Last stated a month ago
20 Sept 2026
NS
Nate Silver — holds since 2026-09-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: History has no predetermined path: its course turns on unpredictable contingencies rather than on deep currents that would have produced the same outcome anyway. — tap to centre the map on it History has no predetermined path: its course turns on unpredictable contingencies rather than on deep currents that would have produced the same outcome anyway. Last stated 4 years ago
26 Aug 2022
BD
Bret Devereaux — holds since 2022-08-26 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. — tap to centre the map on it A continental army's first mission is to keep the regime in power, not to defend the border — which is what the People's Liberation Army is for. Last stated 5 months ago
9 Jun 2026
SP
Sarah Paine — holds since 2026-06-09 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. — tap to centre the map on it A country cannot fund its own industrial strategy and call the same policy cheating when China does it. Last stated a year ago
15 May 2025
HR
Hannah Ritchie — holds since 2025-05-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A country's scientific trajectory can keep advancing even if political instability or economic uncertainty slows its broader progress. — tap to centre the map on it A country's scientific trajectory can keep advancing even if political instability or economic uncertainty slows its broader progress. Last stated 7 months ago
21 Mar 2026
TG
Tanner Greer — holds since 2026-03-21 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. — tap to centre the map on it A ban on self-recursive improvement in AI models would create a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. Last stated a month ago
22 Sept 2026
TC
Tyler Cowen — holds since 2026-09-22 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A broken criminal justice institution survives precisely because it serves the people who run it. — tap to centre the map on it A broken criminal justice institution survives precisely because it serves the people who run it. Last stated 2 months ago
1 Sept 2026
RB
Radley Balko — holds since 2026-09-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A competent, empowered civil service that performs crucial government functions with in-house expertise is good. — tap to centre the map on it A competent, empowered civil service that performs crucial government functions with in-house expertise is good. Last stated a month ago
18 Sept 2026
NS
Noah Smith — holds since 2026-09-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: 'As long as it takes' lacks urgency, and it is a formula available to Ukraine's allies precisely because they are not the ones doing the fighting. — tap to centre the map on it 'As long as it takes' lacks urgency, and it is a formula available to Ukraine's allies precisely because they are not the ones doing the fighting. Last stated a year ago
10 Oct 2025
LF
Lawrence Freedman — holds since 2025-10-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: 9/11 and Osama bin Laden's actions fundamentally shaped the world we live in today. — tap to centre the map on it 9/11 and Osama bin Laden's actions fundamentally shaped the world we live in today. Last stated a month ago
11 Sept 2026
MY
Matthew Yglesias — holds since 2026-09-11 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A ceasefire along the current lines would end the killing and still leave a long-term settlement between Russia and Ukraine possible. — tap to centre the map on it A ceasefire along the current lines would end the killing and still leave a long-term settlement between Russia and Ukraine possible. Last stated 2 months ago
26 Aug 2026
BM
Branko Milanovic — holds since 2026-08-26 — tap for who they are