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← A hypothesis about a specific person built from abstract market logic is basically guaranteed to be wrong.
17 connected korrents · 14 moments from 1 Jun 2013 to 4 Sept 2026.
Everything filed under mental models
mental models
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psychedelics
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market efficiency
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product management
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startups
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ideas vs execution
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behavioural science
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religion Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Same subject Read this korrent: A hypothesis about a specific person built from abstract market logic is basically guaranteed to be wrong. A hypothesis about a specific person built from abstract market logic is basically guaranteed to be wrong. Last stated 2 months ago
4 Sept 2026
RS
Rob Snyder — holds since 2026-09-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: The efficient market hypothesis is at best a very lossy heuristic — tap to centre the map on it The efficient market hypothesis is at best a very lossy heuristic Last stated 2 months ago
4 Sept 2026
NF
Nat Friedman — holds since 2026-09-04 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Every new product is just a hypothesis until you test it. — tap to centre the map on it Every new product is just a hypothesis until you test it. Last stated 2 years ago
28 Apr 2025
JZ
John Zeratsky — holds since 2025-04-28 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Frequent conversations with customers continually correct a founder's mistaken assumptions about the market. — tap to centre the map on it Frequent conversations with customers continually correct a founder's mistaken assumptions about the market. Last stated 9 months ago
23 Jan 2026
AK
Arvid Kahl — holds since 2026-01-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Predictions should be less extreme than the information they rest on, an idea that is deeply counterintuitive — tap to centre the map on it Predictions should be less extreme than the information they rest on, an idea that is deeply counterintuitive
DK
Daniel Kahneman — holds since c. 2002–2003 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If an idea is obviously good, someone else has probably already done it. — tap to centre the map on it If an idea is obviously good, someone else has probably already done it. Last stated a year ago
23 May 2025
JL
Jessica Livingston — holds since 2025-05-23 — tap for who they are
Same subject: When a story fits a contentious narrative someone already believes, they tend to become strikingly gullible — tap to centre the map on it When a story fits a contentious narrative someone already believes, they tend to become strikingly gullible Last stated 5 years ago
17 Jan 2022
DH
David Heinemeier Hansson — holds since 2022-01-17 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A correct unifying theory of physics would, on first appearing publicly, look statistically likely to be wrong. — tap to centre the map on it A correct unifying theory of physics would, on first appearing publicly, look statistically likely to be wrong. Last stated 13 years ago
1 Jun 2013
MS
Marcus du Sautoy — holds since 2013-06-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: If a chain of reasoning rests on a wrong inherited recipe, the conclusions built on top of it will be just as wrong. — tap to centre the map on it If a chain of reasoning rests on a wrong inherited recipe, the conclusions built on top of it will be just as wrong. Last stated 11 years ago
6 Nov 2015
TU
Tim Urban — holds since 2015-11-06 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A business book tends to see every problem through its author's trade: a salesperson's solves everything with sales, a marketer's with marketing. — tap to centre the map on it A business book tends to see every problem through its author's trade: a salesperson's solves everything with sales, a marketer's with marketing. Last stated 10 months ago
18 Jan 2026
TL
Tobias Lütke — holds since 2026-01-18 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A business can be thought of as a factory that produces case studies. — tap to centre the map on it A business can be thought of as a factory that produces case studies. Last stated 6 months ago
25 Apr 2026
RS
Rob Snyder — holds since 2026-04-25 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A business's only real competition is its own costs, not the alternatives on the market, because staying in business means making more than you spend. — tap to centre the map on it A business's only real competition is its own costs, not the alternatives on the market, because staying in business means making more than you spend. Last stated 9 months ago
15 Feb 2026
JF
Jason Fried — holds since 2026-02-15 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Psychedelic therapy should integrate the material it releases into a person's existing mental models. — tap to centre the map on it Psychedelic therapy should integrate the material it releases into a person's existing mental models. Last stated 7 years ago
20 Jun 2019
KF
Karl Friston — holds since 2019-06-20 — tap for who they are
RC
Robin Carhart-Harris — holds since 2019-06-20 — tap for who they are
Same subject: A psychedelic trip can, in rare instances, trigger a psychotic break in people vulnerable to serious mental illness. — tap to centre the map on it A psychedelic trip can, in rare instances, trigger a psychotic break in people vulnerable to serious mental illness. Last stated 7 years ago
10 May 2019
MP
Michael Pollan — holds since 2019-05-10 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Anybody running for head of state should have to undergo the ayahuasca ordeal first, and most of those who did would no longer want the job. — tap to centre the map on it Anybody running for head of state should have to undergo the ayahuasca ordeal first, and most of those who did would no longer want the job. Last stated 2 years ago
16 Oct 2024
GH
Graham Hancock — holds since 2024-10-16 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Do not act on customary beliefs where the action is disastrous unless they are wholly true — tap to centre the map on it Do not act on customary beliefs where the action is disastrous unless they are wholly true
BR
Bertrand Russell — holds since c. 1917 — tap for who they are
Same subject: Outside the circle of competence, confidence does not diminish as fast as competence, and the biggest risk is what one does not see. — tap to centre the map on it Outside the circle of competence, confidence does not diminish as fast as competence, and the biggest risk is what one does not see. Last stated 13 years ago
1 Dec 2013
SP
Shane Parrish — holds since 2013-12-01 — tap for who they are
Same subject: To improve the odds of success, a person should understand the perimeter of their circle of competence, operate well inside it, and be willing to say "I don't know". — tap to centre the map on it To improve the odds of success, a person should understand the perimeter of their circle of competence, operate well inside it, and be willing to say "I don't know". Last stated 13 years ago
1 Dec 2013
SP
Shane Parrish — holds since 2013-12-01 — tap for who they are
At the centre
A hypothesis about a specific person built from abstract market logic is basically guaranteed to be wrong.
Holds Read this korrent →
The efficient market hypothesis is at best a very lossy heuristic
Holds
Every new product is just a hypothesis until you test it.
Holds
Frequent conversations with customers continually correct a founder's mistaken assumptions about the market.
Holds
Predictions should be less extreme than the information they rest on, an idea that is deeply counterintuitive
Last stated c. 2002–2003
Holds
If an idea is obviously good, someone else has probably already done it.
Holds
When a story fits a contentious narrative someone already believes, they tend to become strikingly gullible
Holds
A correct unifying theory of physics would, on first appearing publicly, look statistically likely to be wrong.
Holds
If a chain of reasoning rests on a wrong inherited recipe, the conclusions built on top of it will be just as wrong.
Holds
A business book tends to see every problem through its author's trade: a salesperson's solves everything with sales, a marketer's with marketing.
Holds
A business can be thought of as a factory that produces case studies.
Holds
A business's only real competition is its own costs, not the alternatives on the market, because staying in business means making more than you spend.
Holds
Psychedelic therapy should integrate the material it releases into a person's existing mental models.
Holds
A psychedelic trip can, in rare instances, trigger a psychotic break in people vulnerable to serious mental illness.
Holds
Anybody running for head of state should have to undergo the ayahuasca ordeal first, and most of those who did would no longer want the job.
Holds
Do not act on customary beliefs where the action is disastrous unless they are wholly true
Last stated c. 1917
Holds
Outside the circle of competence, confidence does not diminish as fast as competence, and the biggest risk is what one does not see.
Holds
To improve the odds of success, a person should understand the perimeter of their circle of competence, operate well inside it, and be willing to say "I don't know".
Holds