@scott-alexander · 30 positions · 5 changes of mind · On ppll ↗
Essayist; writes Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex. Keeps a numbered public list of the things he has been convinced he got wrong, which is where most of the turns recorded here come from.
Scott Alexander did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording.
Their own site.
Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it.Or tell us what is wrong here.
Each column is a stretch of time in which the same views came up; a new column starts when one appears or goes quiet. Quiet means nothing on it in our sources for that stretch, which is not the same as a change of mind; Dropped means they said they no longer hold it; tap the card for which claim and when. Revised means the view carries on but one of its claims was dropped. Each row is one view, in the same place all the way along. The number is how many claims in that stretch; we hold 5 in 2019, 0 in 2020, 2 in 2021, 4 in 2022, 10 in 2023, 0 in 2024, 1 in 2025, 38 in 2026.
A writer should publicly own what they got wrong, and judge a forecast by its odds, not only its outcome
Our label. 3 claims in Scott Alexander's own words.
Scott AlexanderEssayist; writes Astral Codex TenBut if I get something significantly wrong, I'll try to put it here as an acknowledgement and an aid for anyone trying to assess my credibility later.↗Mistakesastralcodexten.com · 21 Aug 2019
Their wordsBut if I get something significantly wrong, I'll try to put it here as an acknowledgement and an aid for anyone trying to assess my credibility later.
Their wordsLarge language models are “grown, not built”. Researchers run training data through a neural network. Eventually this creates a working AI; nobody really knows how.
Their wordsresearchers started by seeking a 1:1 mapping between neurons and concepts, like a neuron that always fired when the AI was thinking about cats, but quickly learned that nothing like that existed.
Their wordsempirically concepts can get their tentacles into weird places, and removing one can topple seemingly unrelated systems or push a mind nonspecifically in the direction of incompetence or insanity.
Scott AlexanderEssayist; writes Astral Codex TenRather than treat AI as similar to airplanes, we should treat it as something between airplanes and humans. We don’t know exactly where on this spectrum they will land, but we can no longer be certain that AI will lack any given humanlike motivation.↗Nicholas Decker In Hellastralcodexten.com · 1 Sept 2026
Their wordsRather than treat AI as similar to airplanes, we should treat it as something between airplanes and humans. We don’t know exactly where on this spectrum they will land, but we can no longer be certain that AI will lack any given humanlike motivation.
Their wordsWe’re positively reinforcing AI for success on benchmarks, including impossible benchmarks , then negatively reinforcing it for getting caught cheating.
Their wordsThe AI company leaders giving these warnings were giving the exact same warnings before they had AI companies - and in many cases, before they worked in the industry, or before the industry existed.
Their wordsThe people at AI companies are no more likely to raise the alarm about AI dangers than people who were never at AI companies, or people who were previously at AI companies but have since quit.
Their wordsEA has done a great job working on this (see list of accomplishments above), and I think the AI and x-risk people have just as much to be proud of as the global health and animal welfare people.
Their wordsAnd I notice that the tiny handful of people capable of caring about 200,000 people dying of neglected tropical diseases are the same tiny handful of people capable of caring about the next pandemic, or superintelligence, or human extinction.
Their wordsThese skewed priorities are the exact problem that effective altruism exists to solve - or the exact inefficiency that effective altruism exists to exploit, if you prefer that framing.
Their wordsIndeed, I think some of the best opportunities to do good in the world come from working on issues that aren't yet widely recognized as huge moral issues of our time.
Their wordsMovements are coalitions. Sometimes this means different people with different priorities choose to work together. But other times it means the same people tend to share both priorities.
Scott AlexanderEssayist; writes Astral Codex TenPolymarket is currently at 5% for WHO declaring plague a “pandemic”, but markets are notoriously bad at handling very small probabilities, so I don’t take it seriously as a counter to the sources above.↗Top Forecasters On The Plagueastralcodexten.com · 7 Oct 2026
Their wordsPolymarket is currently at 5% for WHO declaring plague a “pandemic”, but markets are notoriously bad at handling very small probabilities, so I don’t take it seriously as a counter to the sources above.
Scott AlexanderEssayist; writes Astral Codex TenEye movement directed reprocessing (alternative when the book was written, now basically establishment) where you move your eyes back and forth while talking about your trauma, and this seems to somehow help you process it better.↗Book Review: The Body Keeps The Scoreslatestarcodex.com · 12 Nov 2019
Their wordsEye movement directed reprocessing (alternative when the book was written, now basically establishment) where you move your eyes back and forth while talking about your trauma, and this seems to somehow help you process it better.
Scott AlexanderEssayist; writes Astral Codex TenFirst, it justifies various psychotherapies - EMDR and coherence therapy seem to come out especially well here - that focus on trying to get the brain to pay unusually precise attention, under unusually safe conditions, to something it usually represses.↗The Precision Of Sensory Evidenceastralcodexten.com · 13 Feb 2021
Their wordsFirst, it justifies various psychotherapies - EMDR and coherence therapy seem to come out especially well here - that focus on trying to get the brain to pay unusually precise attention, under unusually safe conditions, to something it usually represses.
Scott AlexanderEssayist; writes Astral Codex TenI would recommend that anyone who thinks they're suffering from trauma (eg PTSD) try a trauma-focused therapy like EMDR before trying to address nightmares directly, unless the nightmares are overwhelmingly worse than all their other trauma symptoms.↗Peer Review: Nightmaresastralcodexten.com · 16 Jun 2022
Their wordsI would recommend that anyone who thinks they're suffering from trauma (eg PTSD) try a trauma-focused therapy like EMDR before trying to address nightmares directly, unless the nightmares are overwhelmingly worse than all their other trauma symptoms.