Scott Alexander
Essayist; writes Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex. Keeps a numbered public list of the things he has been convinced he got wrong, which is where most of the turns recorded here come from.
Scott Alexander did not write this page.
We collected these quotes from things they published elsewhere, and every quote links to where it was said. They have no account here and have not endorsed this site. Quotes are word for word; the short line under each one is our own restatement, not their wording. Their own site. Is this you? Claim it or ask us to remove it. Or tell us what is wrong here.
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· held 3 weeks
Believed beforesaid
Their words thenSo empirically, as you move along the density spectrum from the empty North Dakota plain to Manhattan, housing prices go up.
Nowsaid
Our readingNo longer believes this.
Their wordsAlthough it wasn't a mistake to ask people to change my mind, I've mostly updated against believing the theory.
- 4 months earlier
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· held 13 months
Believed beforesaid · at 60%
Their words thenAt this point I'd give it 60-40 it works.
Nowsaid
Our readingNo longer believes this.
Their wordsMore recent studies have found fluvoxamine does not treat COVID.
- 4 months earlier
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· held 4 weeks
Believed beforesaid
Their words thenIn fact, not only did they reach this level in three months, but probably they were at this level before the bet was even made
Nowsaid
Our readingNo longer believes this.
Their wordsI retract my claim to have won and will continue to see how AI progress advances over the next three years.
- 3 years earlier
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· held 6 years
Believed beforesaid
Our reading
Technological progress did not slow down from 1970 to the present, compared with its pre-1970 speed
Their words thenI argued that technological progress had not slowed from 1970 to the present (compared to its pre-1970 speed).
Nowsaid
Our readingNo longer believes this.
Their wordsSince then, research by a bunch of people finds strong evidence that it has. Despite its confidence and snark, my 2014 post was wrong.
- 3 months earlier
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Believed before
Their words thenI suggested that psychedelics might work by strengthening the brain's top-down priors.
Nowsaid
Our readingNo longer believes this.
Their wordsA more recent paper by Carhart-Harris and Friston provides compelling evidence that psychedelics probably work by weakening the brain's top-down priors, meaning I got this one maximally wrong.